| Peer-Reviewed

Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable

Received: 12 January 2021    Accepted: 19 January 2021    Published: 10 February 2021
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Dealing with problems on portfolio selection models fuzzy set theory is effectively interpolating investor’s attitude. The credibility theory (Branch of fuzzy set theory) is broadly utilized to describe uncertainty of the financial markets. We regard the return rate of each risky stock as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Variance and semi-variance of fuzzy return on stocks are widely accepted as risk measures in portfolio selection models. This paper obtains credibilistic semi-variance of trapezoidal fuzzy variable and applied this concept to quantify the risk in stock fuzzy portfolio selection. A multi-criteria credibilistic mean-semivariance-skewness model is proposed with numerical illustration taking historical data set from the premier market for financial assets. Three objectives are taken into account namely, expected portfolio return, risk on expected portfolio return and portfolio skewness to construct multi-objective programming problem, along with cardinality constraint, complete capital utilization, floor and ceiling constraint, no short selling constraints. To solve the proposed multi-objective optimization problem, optimal goal programming approach is suggested. Finally, a case study is conducted to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed models through the real-world data from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), an Indian premier market for financial stocks. Furthermore, results comparison of semi-variance as risk measure with other existing risk measures is performed.

Published in Applied and Computational Mathematics (Volume 10, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11
Page(s) 1-9
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variables, Credibilistic Semi-variance, Fuzzy Portfolio Selection, Optimal Goal Programming

References
[1] H. Markowitz, Portfolio selection, J. Finance 7 (1952) 77–91.
[2] H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, Wiley, New York, 1959.
[3] F. Choobineh, D. Branting, A simple approximation for semivariance, European J. Oper. Res. 27 (1986) 364–370.
[4] H. Markowitz, Computation of mean-semivariance efficient sets by the critical line algorithm, Ann. Oper. Res. 45 (1993) 307–317.
[5] P. D. Kaplan, R. H. Alldredge, Semivariance in risk-based index construction: quantidex global indexes, The J. Investing 6 (1997) 82–87.
[6] H. Tanaka, P. Guo, Portfolio selection based on upper and lower exponential possibility distributions, European J. Oper. Res. 114 (1999) 115–126.
[7] H. Tanaka, P. Guo, I. B. Türksen, Portfolio selection based on fuzzy probabilities and possibility distributions, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 111 (2000) 387–397.
[8] C. Carlsson, R. Fullér, P. Majlender, A possibilistic approach to selecting portfolios with highest utility score, Fuzzy sets and systems, 131 (1) (2002), 13-21.
[9] Huang, X., 2007. Portfolio selection with fuzzy returns. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 18 (4), pp. 383-390.
[10] Liu, B. and Liu, Y. K., 2002. Expected value of fuzzy variable and fuzzy expected value models. IEEE transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 10 (4), pp. 445-450.
[11] Huang, X., 2008. Mean-semivariance models for fuzzy portfolio selection. Journal of computational and applied mathematics, 217 (1), pp. 1-8.
[12] Qin Z, Li X, Ji X (2009) Portfolio selection based on fuzzy cross-entropy. J Comput Appl Math 228 (1): 139–149.
[13] Qin Z, Wang ZD, Li X (2013) Mean-semivariance models for portfolio optimization with mixed uncertainty of fuzziness and randomness. Int J Uncertain Fuzziness Knowl-Based Syst 21 (1): 127–139.
[14] Jalota Hemant, Manoj Thakur, and Garima Mittal. "Modelling and constructing membership function for uncertain portfolio parameters: A credibilistic framework." Expert Systems with Applications 71 (2017): 40-56.
[15] Liu Yong-Jun, and Wei-Guo Zhang. "Fuzzy portfolio selection model with real features and different decision behaviors." Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making 17, no. 3 (2018): 317-336.
[16] Zhang, Peng. "Multi-period possibilistic mean semivariance portfolio selection with cardinality constraints and its algorithm." Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms in Operations Research 14, no. 2 (2015): 239-253.
[17] Liu, Yongjun, Wei-Guo Zhang, and Pankaj Gupta. "Multi-period Portfolio Performance Evaluation Model Based on Possibility Theory." IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems (2019).
[18] Zhang, Peng, and Bi-Yu Peng. "Credibilitic Multiperiod Mean Semivariance Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs." INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 17, no. 3 (2018): 464-478.
[19] M. K. Mehlawat, Credibilistic mean-entropy models for multi-period portfolio selection with multi-choice aspiration levels, Information Sciences, 345 (2016), 9-26.
[20] E. Vercher, J. D. Bermúdez, Measuring uncertainty in the portfolio selection problem. In The Mathematics of the Uncertain, Cham (2018), 765-775.
[21] N. Liu, Y. Chen, Y. Liu, Optimizing portfolio selection problems under credibilistic CVaR criterion, Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 34 (1) (2018), 335-347.
[22] Gupta Pankaj, Mukesh Kumar Mehlawat, Arun Kumar, Sanjay Yadav, and Abha Aggarwal. "A Credibilistic Fuzzy DEA Approach for Portfolio Efficiency Evaluation and Rebalancing Toward Benchmark Portfolios Using Positive and Negative Returns." International Journal of Fuzzy Systems 22, no. 3 (2020): 824-843.
[23] Mehlawat, Mukesh Kumar, Pankaj Gupta, Arun Kumar, Sanjay Yadav, and Abha Aggarwal. "Multi-Objective Fuzzy Portfolio Performance Evaluation Using Data Envelopment Analysis Under Credibilistic Framework." IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems (2020).
[24] X. Li, Z. Qin, S. Kar, Mean-variance-skewness model for portfolio selection with fuzzy returns, European Journal of Operational Research, 202 (1) (2010), 239-247.
[25] J. S. Kamdem, C. T. Deffo, L. A. Fono, Moments and semi-moments for fuzzy portfolio selection, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 51 (3) (2012), 517-530.
[26] S. Barak, M. Abessi, M. Modarres, Fuzzy turnover rate chance constraints portfolio model, European Journal of Operational Research, 228 (1) (2013), 141-147.
[27] E. Vercher, J. D. Bermúdez, Portfolio optimization using a credibility mean-absolute semi-deviation model, Expert Systems with Applications, 42 (20) (2015), 7121-7131.
[28] Z. Qin, Credibilistic mean-variance-skewness model, In Uncertain Portfolio Optimization, Singapore (2016), 29-52.
[29] A. Ray, S. K. Majumder, Multi objective mean–variance–skewness model with Burg’s entropy and fuzzy return for portfolio optimization, Opsearch, 55 (1) (2018), 107-133.
[30] M. Rahimi, P. Kumar, Portfolio optimization based on fuzzy entropy, International Journal on Interactive Design and Manufacturing (IJIDeM), 13 (2) (2019), 531-536.
[31] Zhang, W. G. and Liu, Y. J.: Credibilitic mean-variance model for multi-period portfolio selection problem with risk control. OR Spectr. 36 (1), 113-132 (2014)
[32] Qin, Zhongfeng, Meilin Wen, and Changchao Gu. "Mean-absolute deviation portfolio selection model with fuzzy returns." Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems 8, no. 4 (2011): 61-75.
[33] Deng, X., Zhao, J. and Li, Z.: Sensitivity Analysis of the Fuzzy Mean-Entropy Portfolio Model with Transaction Costs Based on Credibility Theory. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 20 (1), 209-218 (2018).
[34] B. Wang, S. Wang, J. Watada, Fuzzy-portfolio-selection models with value-at-risk, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 19 (4) (2011), 758-769.
[35] Zhou, Jiandong, Xiang Li, and Witold Pedrycz. "Mean-semi-entropy models of fuzzy portfolio selection." IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 24, no. 6 (2016): 1627-1636.
[36] LA. Zadeh, Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility, Fuzzy Sets Syst 1 (1978), 3–28.
[37] X. Li, BD Liu, A sufficient and necessary condition for credibility measures, Int J Uncertain Fuzziness Knowl-Based Syst 14 (5) (2006), 527–535.
[38] BD. Liu, Uncertainty theory, Springer, Berlin, 2nd edn. (2007).
[39] BD. Liu, Theory and practice of uncertain programming, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, (2002).
[40] Y. K., Liu, B. Liu, Expected value operator of random fuzzy variable and random fuzzy expected value models, International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 11 (2) (2003), 195-215.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Jagdish Kumar Pahade, Manoj Jha. (2021). Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable. Applied and Computational Mathematics, 10(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Jagdish Kumar Pahade; Manoj Jha. Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable. Appl. Comput. Math. 2021, 10(1), 1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Jagdish Kumar Pahade, Manoj Jha. Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable. Appl Comput Math. 2021;10(1):1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11,
      author = {Jagdish Kumar Pahade and Manoj Jha},
      title = {Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable},
      journal = {Applied and Computational Mathematics},
      volume = {10},
      number = {1},
      pages = {1-9},
      doi = {10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.acm.20211001.11},
      abstract = {Dealing with problems on portfolio selection models fuzzy set theory is effectively interpolating investor’s attitude. The credibility theory (Branch of fuzzy set theory) is broadly utilized to describe uncertainty of the financial markets. We regard the return rate of each risky stock as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Variance and semi-variance of fuzzy return on stocks are widely accepted as risk measures in portfolio selection models. This paper obtains credibilistic semi-variance of trapezoidal fuzzy variable and applied this concept to quantify the risk in stock fuzzy portfolio selection. A multi-criteria credibilistic mean-semivariance-skewness model is proposed with numerical illustration taking historical data set from the premier market for financial assets. Three objectives are taken into account namely, expected portfolio return, risk on expected portfolio return and portfolio skewness to construct multi-objective programming problem, along with cardinality constraint, complete capital utilization, floor and ceiling constraint, no short selling constraints. To solve the proposed multi-objective optimization problem, optimal goal programming approach is suggested. Finally, a case study is conducted to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed models through the real-world data from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), an Indian premier market for financial stocks. Furthermore, results comparison of semi-variance as risk measure with other existing risk measures is performed.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Multi-criteria Credibilistic Portfolio Selection Model with Various Risk Comparisons Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Variable
    AU  - Jagdish Kumar Pahade
    AU  - Manoj Jha
    Y1  - 2021/02/10
    PY  - 2021
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11
    T2  - Applied and Computational Mathematics
    JF  - Applied and Computational Mathematics
    JO  - Applied and Computational Mathematics
    SP  - 1
    EP  - 9
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-5613
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.acm.20211001.11
    AB  - Dealing with problems on portfolio selection models fuzzy set theory is effectively interpolating investor’s attitude. The credibility theory (Branch of fuzzy set theory) is broadly utilized to describe uncertainty of the financial markets. We regard the return rate of each risky stock as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Variance and semi-variance of fuzzy return on stocks are widely accepted as risk measures in portfolio selection models. This paper obtains credibilistic semi-variance of trapezoidal fuzzy variable and applied this concept to quantify the risk in stock fuzzy portfolio selection. A multi-criteria credibilistic mean-semivariance-skewness model is proposed with numerical illustration taking historical data set from the premier market for financial assets. Three objectives are taken into account namely, expected portfolio return, risk on expected portfolio return and portfolio skewness to construct multi-objective programming problem, along with cardinality constraint, complete capital utilization, floor and ceiling constraint, no short selling constraints. To solve the proposed multi-objective optimization problem, optimal goal programming approach is suggested. Finally, a case study is conducted to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed models through the real-world data from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), an Indian premier market for financial stocks. Furthermore, results comparison of semi-variance as risk measure with other existing risk measures is performed.
    VL  - 10
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

  • Department of Mathematics, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

  • Sections