Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex

Andrey Dolganov

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex

Andrey Dolganov

Published in American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management (Volume 6, Issue 6)

Received: 22 September 2021 Accepted: 12 October 2021 Published: 23 November 2021

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Abstract

The paper examines the reliability of investment risk estimates based on probabilistic realizations of purpose-designed scenarios. The calculations of the probabilities of scenario realization were based on logical and probabilistic methods. The reliability of risk assessment is understood as the probability of successful completion of a project, fulfillment of all contractual obligations: construction in compliance with the architectural and engineering design and quality requirements, within the contractual period and approved budget. Investment risks were estimated based on seven primary scenarios. The realization of the risks of the main group depended on the realization of the various numbers of risk scenarios of each subgroup in the main group. For instance, the first scenario of the main group consisted in the risk of the impact of design errors, including errors in design and estimate documentation, incomplete working documentation. The second one consisted in the risk of the impact of construction errors that determine the quality of construction and installation work, the possibility of industrial accidents, etc. The risks of each subgroup could be obtained by means of expert estimations or, in case of sufficient statistical data, based on the actual distributions. A mathematical model was developed for the purpose of a computerized solution. The mathematical model also allowed identifying such dependability factors as “weight”, “significance” and “contribution” of each risk in the success of an investment project (reliability structure of investment risk estimation). The analysis of calculation data enabled the identification of the probability of successful project completion (reliability), the risks that are the most important, significant and having the largest contribution to the successful implementation of investment projects. Also, the risks were identified that have the least pronounced effect on the successful implementation of an investment project.

Published in	American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management (Volume 6, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
Page(s)	89-94
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Reliability, Probability, Investment, Model, Dependability, Risks, System, Scenarios

References

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[2]	Dolganov A. I. On the consideration of progressive failure at the stage of design // Dependability, vol. 20 no. 1, 2020. – P. 20–24; https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2020-20-1-20-24.
[3]	Dolganov Andrey I. On the reliability of investment risk assessments // Dependability, vol. 19 no. 3, 2019. – P. 47 – 52; DOI: 10.21683/1729-2646-2019-19-3-47-52.
[4]	Dolganov A. I. Optimization of reinforced concrete bridge beams by the criterion of reliability // Problems of optimal design of structures: Sat. reports of the II All-Russian seminar: Novosibirsk: NGASU, 1998.
[5]	Dolganov A. I., Danielov E. R. Problems of optimal design of structures // Sat. reports of the III-th All-Russia. seminar: In 2 volumes. - Novosibirsk: NGASU, 2000. – T. 1.
[6]	Dolganov A. I. Optimization of reinforced concrete structures taking into account the criteria of reliability and minimum cost. – Magadan: Publishing house of the Northern International University, 2002. – 164 p.
[7]	Dolganov A. I. Assessment of reliability of monolithic multi-storey // Industrial and civil construction. – 2010. – No. 8. - P. 50 – 51.
[8]	Dolganov A. I. On the reliability of mass construction facilities // Industrial and civil construction. - 2010. - No. 11. - P. 66 – 68.
[9]	Dolganov A. I. On the provision of ice load in the Gulf of Finland // Materials of the 9th International Scientific and Practical Conference: Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations, EMERCOM of Russia, Russian Foundation for Basic Research. - M.: Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, 2015. – T. 2, 100 – 106 p.
[10]	Dolganov A. I., Sakharov A. V. About the appointment of the level of reliability // Reliability. – 2018. – T. 18. – No. 3. – P. 18 – 21.
[11]	Ryabinin I. Reliability of engineering systems: Principles and analysis. – Moskow: Mir, 1976. – 532 p.
[12]	Ryabinin I. A. A Suggestion of a New Measure of System Components Importance by Means of a Boolean Difference. In: Microelectronics and Reability. – 1994. – V. 34. – No 4. – P. 603 – 613.
[13]	Ryabinin I. A. Logic-probabilistic methods of risks estimation. Instrumentation in ecology and human safety'98, Proceedings, 27 October – 28 October, 1998, St. Petersburg. – P. 17 – 21.
[14]	Ryabinin I. A. Reliability and safety of structural-complex systems. – St. Petersburg: Polytechnic, 2000. – 248 p.
[15]	Probabilistic Methods in Structural Engineering (G. Augusti, A. Baratta and F. Casciati); Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1986. – 484 p.

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Andrey Dolganov. (2021). Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 6(6), 89-94. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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ACS Style

Andrey Dolganov. Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. Am. J. Eng. Technol. Manag. 2021, 6(6), 89-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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AMA Style

Andrey Dolganov. Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. Am J Eng Technol Manag. 2021;6(6):89-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11,
  author = {Andrey Dolganov},
  title = {Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex},
  journal = {American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management},
  volume = {6},
  number = {6},
  pages = {89-94},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  abstract = {The paper examines the reliability of investment risk estimates based on probabilistic realizations of purpose-designed scenarios. The calculations of the probabilities of scenario realization were based on logical and probabilistic methods. The reliability of risk assessment is understood as the probability of successful completion of a project, fulfillment of all contractual obligations: construction in compliance with the architectural and engineering design and quality requirements, within the contractual period and approved budget. Investment risks were estimated based on seven primary scenarios. The realization of the risks of the main group depended on the realization of the various numbers of risk scenarios of each subgroup in the main group. For instance, the first scenario of the main group consisted in the risk of the impact of design errors, including errors in design and estimate documentation, incomplete working documentation. The second one consisted in the risk of the impact of construction errors that determine the quality of construction and installation work, the possibility of industrial accidents, etc. The risks of each subgroup could be obtained by means of expert estimations or, in case of sufficient statistical data, based on the actual distributions. A mathematical model was developed for the purpose of a computerized solution. The mathematical model also allowed identifying such dependability factors as “weight”, “significance” and “contribution” of each risk in the success of an investment project (reliability structure of investment risk estimation). The analysis of calculation data enabled the identification of the probability of successful project completion (reliability), the risks that are the most important, significant and having the largest contribution to the successful implementation of investment projects. Also, the risks were identified that have the least pronounced effect on the successful implementation of an investment project.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex
AU  - Andrey Dolganov
Y1  - 2021/11/23
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
T2  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
JF  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
JO  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
SP  - 89
EP  - 94
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1441
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
AB  - The paper examines the reliability of investment risk estimates based on probabilistic realizations of purpose-designed scenarios. The calculations of the probabilities of scenario realization were based on logical and probabilistic methods. The reliability of risk assessment is understood as the probability of successful completion of a project, fulfillment of all contractual obligations: construction in compliance with the architectural and engineering design and quality requirements, within the contractual period and approved budget. Investment risks were estimated based on seven primary scenarios. The realization of the risks of the main group depended on the realization of the various numbers of risk scenarios of each subgroup in the main group. For instance, the first scenario of the main group consisted in the risk of the impact of design errors, including errors in design and estimate documentation, incomplete working documentation. The second one consisted in the risk of the impact of construction errors that determine the quality of construction and installation work, the possibility of industrial accidents, etc. The risks of each subgroup could be obtained by means of expert estimations or, in case of sufficient statistical data, based on the actual distributions. A mathematical model was developed for the purpose of a computerized solution. The mathematical model also allowed identifying such dependability factors as “weight”, “significance” and “contribution” of each risk in the success of an investment project (reliability structure of investment risk estimation). The analysis of calculation data enabled the identification of the probability of successful project completion (reliability), the risks that are the most important, significant and having the largest contribution to the successful implementation of investment projects. Also, the risks were identified that have the least pronounced effect on the successful implementation of an investment project.
VL  - 6
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Andrey Dolganov

Institute of Industrial and Civil Engineering, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Moscow, Russia

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Andrey Dolganov. (2021). Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 6(6), 89-94. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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ACS Style

Andrey Dolganov. Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. Am. J. Eng. Technol. Manag. 2021, 6(6), 89-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

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AMA Style

Andrey Dolganov. Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex. Am J Eng Technol Manag. 2021;6(6):89-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11,
  author = {Andrey Dolganov},
  title = {Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex},
  journal = {American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management},
  volume = {6},
  number = {6},
  pages = {89-94},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajetm.20210606.11},
  abstract = {The paper examines the reliability of investment risk estimates based on probabilistic realizations of purpose-designed scenarios. The calculations of the probabilities of scenario realization were based on logical and probabilistic methods. The reliability of risk assessment is understood as the probability of successful completion of a project, fulfillment of all contractual obligations: construction in compliance with the architectural and engineering design and quality requirements, within the contractual period and approved budget. Investment risks were estimated based on seven primary scenarios. The realization of the risks of the main group depended on the realization of the various numbers of risk scenarios of each subgroup in the main group. For instance, the first scenario of the main group consisted in the risk of the impact of design errors, including errors in design and estimate documentation, incomplete working documentation. The second one consisted in the risk of the impact of construction errors that determine the quality of construction and installation work, the possibility of industrial accidents, etc. The risks of each subgroup could be obtained by means of expert estimations or, in case of sufficient statistical data, based on the actual distributions. A mathematical model was developed for the purpose of a computerized solution. The mathematical model also allowed identifying such dependability factors as “weight”, “significance” and “contribution” of each risk in the success of an investment project (reliability structure of investment risk estimation). The analysis of calculation data enabled the identification of the probability of successful project completion (reliability), the risks that are the most important, significant and having the largest contribution to the successful implementation of investment projects. Also, the risks were identified that have the least pronounced effect on the successful implementation of an investment project.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Investment Risks by the Reconstruction of the Olympic Sports and Entertainment Complex
AU  - Andrey Dolganov
Y1  - 2021/11/23
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
T2  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
JF  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
JO  - American Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
SP  - 89
EP  - 94
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1441
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajetm.20210606.11
AB  - The paper examines the reliability of investment risk estimates based on probabilistic realizations of purpose-designed scenarios. The calculations of the probabilities of scenario realization were based on logical and probabilistic methods. The reliability of risk assessment is understood as the probability of successful completion of a project, fulfillment of all contractual obligations: construction in compliance with the architectural and engineering design and quality requirements, within the contractual period and approved budget. Investment risks were estimated based on seven primary scenarios. The realization of the risks of the main group depended on the realization of the various numbers of risk scenarios of each subgroup in the main group. For instance, the first scenario of the main group consisted in the risk of the impact of design errors, including errors in design and estimate documentation, incomplete working documentation. The second one consisted in the risk of the impact of construction errors that determine the quality of construction and installation work, the possibility of industrial accidents, etc. The risks of each subgroup could be obtained by means of expert estimations or, in case of sufficient statistical data, based on the actual distributions. A mathematical model was developed for the purpose of a computerized solution. The mathematical model also allowed identifying such dependability factors as “weight”, “significance” and “contribution” of each risk in the success of an investment project (reliability structure of investment risk estimation). The analysis of calculation data enabled the identification of the probability of successful project completion (reliability), the risks that are the most important, significant and having the largest contribution to the successful implementation of investment projects. Also, the risks were identified that have the least pronounced effect on the successful implementation of an investment project.
VL  - 6
IS  - 6
ER  -

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