Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model

Hejun Geng; Xiaobin Jiang; Deling Wang; Jie Li

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

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Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model

Hejun Geng, Xiaobin Jiang, Deling Wang, Jie Li

Published in American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 6, Issue 2)

Received: 17 March 2021 Accepted: 29 March 2021 Published: 7 April 2021

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Abstract

In recent years, with the rapid development of the national marine economy, maritime cargo transportation has continued to increase. In particular, the transportation volume of oil products and hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly, and the risk of pollution to the water environment caused by ships and related operations is increasing, and marine oil spill accidents occur from time to time. Once a ship spills oil, the oil spilled on the sea migrates and spreads in the ocean as impacted by wind and tidal currents, thereby exerting adverse effects on the surrounding marine environment. As guided by sustainable development strategy, all mankind have developed a consensus of natural ecological protection, and effective prevention and treatment of ship pollution are suggested to show critical significance. Thus, given the development status and historical accidents of a specific water area, this study employs a method based on probability statistics to predict the risk of marine pollution and explore the effective prevention and countermeasures for the pollution. Conducted oil spill risk assessment on Ningbo Guanbao Terminal. Determine the risk value of oil spill accidents in each port area in the area, and provide support for the site selection of the oil spill emergency equipment warehouse in the port waters. The results will be conducive to guiding ship marine oil spill risk management.

Published in	American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 6, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
Page(s)	34-42
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Marine Pollution, Ships, Risk Assessment, Marine Accident, Risk Management

References

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[3]	Nelson, J. R., Grubesic, T. H. A repeated sampling method for oil spill impact uncertainty and interpolation. in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017. 22: 420-430.
[4]	Ekpenyong, Nikereuwem Stephen, Udeme Sunday Udofia. Crude Oil Spills and Its Consequences on Seafoods Safety in Coastal Area of Ibeno: Akwa Ibom State. in Studies in Sociology of Science. 2015. 6 (1) pp: 16-21.
[5]	Na, Song-Jin. A Consideration of the Decision-Making Efficiency Concerning the Removal of Oil Spills by Foreign Ships in the EEZ. in Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety. 2019, 25 (6) pp: 698-707.
[6]	Anonymous. National Emergency Plan for Maritime Search and Rescue. in China Ocean Law Review: Chinese and English, 2006 (1): 255-266.
[7]	Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China. National Emergency Response Plan for Major Marine Oil Spills. in China Emergency Management, 2018.
[8]	Anonymous. The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "National Major Marine Oil Spill Emergency Capacity Building Plan (2015-2020)". in China Emergency Management, 2016 (2): 27-30.
[9]	Jiang Kan. Oil spill risk assessment and countermeasure analysis of the 3000-ton crude oil terminal at Ningbo Port Yongfa. Dalian. in Dalian Maritime University, 2013.
[10]	Li Xia. Oil spill risk analysis and prevention countermeasures of the 300,000-ton crude oil terminal in Dalian New Port. in Dalian. Dalian Maritime University, 2017.
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[12]	Shen Hui. Fulfill the obligations of international conventions and improve my country's search and rescue mechanism. in Heilongjiang Science and Technology Information, 2010 (05). pp: 93.
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[15]	Zhou Jing, Guo Weiyi. Analysis of the nature of maritime search and rescue behavior from the perspective of administrative law. in 2008 China Dalian International Maritime Forum. 2008.

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APA Style

Hejun Geng, Xiaobin Jiang, Deling Wang, Jie Li. (2021). Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 6(2), 34-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

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ACS Style

Hejun Geng; Xiaobin Jiang; Deling Wang; Jie Li. Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2021, 6(2), 34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

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AMA Style

Hejun Geng, Xiaobin Jiang, Deling Wang, Jie Li. Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2021;6(2):34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11,
  author = {Hejun Geng and Xiaobin Jiang and Deling Wang and Jie Li},
  title = {Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {34-42},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  abstract = {In recent years, with the rapid development of the national marine economy, maritime cargo transportation has continued to increase. In particular, the transportation volume of oil products and hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly, and the risk of pollution to the water environment caused by ships and related operations is increasing, and marine oil spill accidents occur from time to time. Once a ship spills oil, the oil spilled on the sea migrates and spreads in the ocean as impacted by wind and tidal currents, thereby exerting adverse effects on the surrounding marine environment. As guided by sustainable development strategy, all mankind have developed a consensus of natural ecological protection, and effective prevention and treatment of ship pollution are suggested to show critical significance. Thus, given the development status and historical accidents of a specific water area, this study employs a method based on probability statistics to predict the risk of marine pollution and explore the effective prevention and countermeasures for the pollution. Conducted oil spill risk assessment on Ningbo Guanbao Terminal. Determine the risk value of oil spill accidents in each port area in the area, and provide support for the site selection of the oil spill emergency equipment warehouse in the port waters. The results will be conducive to guiding ship marine oil spill risk management.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model
AU  - Hejun Geng
AU  - Xiaobin Jiang
AU  - Deling Wang
AU  - Jie Li
Y1  - 2021/04/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 34
EP  - 42
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
AB  - In recent years, with the rapid development of the national marine economy, maritime cargo transportation has continued to increase. In particular, the transportation volume of oil products and hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly, and the risk of pollution to the water environment caused by ships and related operations is increasing, and marine oil spill accidents occur from time to time. Once a ship spills oil, the oil spilled on the sea migrates and spreads in the ocean as impacted by wind and tidal currents, thereby exerting adverse effects on the surrounding marine environment. As guided by sustainable development strategy, all mankind have developed a consensus of natural ecological protection, and effective prevention and treatment of ship pollution are suggested to show critical significance. Thus, given the development status and historical accidents of a specific water area, this study employs a method based on probability statistics to predict the risk of marine pollution and explore the effective prevention and countermeasures for the pollution. Conducted oil spill risk assessment on Ningbo Guanbao Terminal. Determine the risk value of oil spill accidents in each port area in the area, and provide support for the site selection of the oil spill emergency equipment warehouse in the port waters. The results will be conducive to guiding ship marine oil spill risk management.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Hejun Geng

Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China
Xiaobin Jiang

Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China
Deling Wang

Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China
Jie Li

Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Hejun Geng, Xiaobin Jiang, Deling Wang, Jie Li. (2021). Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 6(2), 34-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Hejun Geng; Xiaobin Jiang; Deling Wang; Jie Li. Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2021, 6(2), 34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

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AMA Style

Hejun Geng, Xiaobin Jiang, Deling Wang, Jie Li. Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2021;6(2):34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11,
  author = {Hejun Geng and Xiaobin Jiang and Deling Wang and Jie Li},
  title = {Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {34-42},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20210602.11},
  abstract = {In recent years, with the rapid development of the national marine economy, maritime cargo transportation has continued to increase. In particular, the transportation volume of oil products and hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly, and the risk of pollution to the water environment caused by ships and related operations is increasing, and marine oil spill accidents occur from time to time. Once a ship spills oil, the oil spilled on the sea migrates and spreads in the ocean as impacted by wind and tidal currents, thereby exerting adverse effects on the surrounding marine environment. As guided by sustainable development strategy, all mankind have developed a consensus of natural ecological protection, and effective prevention and treatment of ship pollution are suggested to show critical significance. Thus, given the development status and historical accidents of a specific water area, this study employs a method based on probability statistics to predict the risk of marine pollution and explore the effective prevention and countermeasures for the pollution. Conducted oil spill risk assessment on Ningbo Guanbao Terminal. Determine the risk value of oil spill accidents in each port area in the area, and provide support for the site selection of the oil spill emergency equipment warehouse in the port waters. The results will be conducive to guiding ship marine oil spill risk management.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Prediction and Assessment of Marine Pollution Risk from Ships Based on Statistical Analysis Probability Model
AU  - Hejun Geng
AU  - Xiaobin Jiang
AU  - Deling Wang
AU  - Jie Li
Y1  - 2021/04/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 34
EP  - 42
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20210602.11
AB  - In recent years, with the rapid development of the national marine economy, maritime cargo transportation has continued to increase. In particular, the transportation volume of oil products and hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly, and the risk of pollution to the water environment caused by ships and related operations is increasing, and marine oil spill accidents occur from time to time. Once a ship spills oil, the oil spilled on the sea migrates and spreads in the ocean as impacted by wind and tidal currents, thereby exerting adverse effects on the surrounding marine environment. As guided by sustainable development strategy, all mankind have developed a consensus of natural ecological protection, and effective prevention and treatment of ship pollution are suggested to show critical significance. Thus, given the development status and historical accidents of a specific water area, this study employs a method based on probability statistics to predict the risk of marine pollution and explore the effective prevention and countermeasures for the pollution. Conducted oil spill risk assessment on Ningbo Guanbao Terminal. Determine the risk value of oil spill accidents in each port area in the area, and provide support for the site selection of the oil spill emergency equipment warehouse in the port waters. The results will be conducive to guiding ship marine oil spill risk management.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download