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The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan

Received: 16 December 2021    Accepted: 12 January 2022    Published: 16 February 2022
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Abstract

The most critical macroeconomic dynamics of economies include the supply of money, the budget deficit, and inflation. Moreover, inflation has a significant effect on the economy. Inflation is induced when monetary and fiscal policies are not used in a compatible and supportive manner. Because of this basis, it is interesting to examine the relationship between the money supply, the budget deficit, and inflation variables. Data was used from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic annual report, World Bank, and Statista database. By applying the Granger method of causality this study aims to empirically define the relationships in the Azerbaijan economy between the supply of money, budget deficits, and inflation. The duration of 2009-2019 is being analyzed in the study and with quarterly results, the study is carried out. Budget deficits can cause inflation only if they are reflected in monetary aggregates, as inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When the central bank tries to accelerate monetary liquidity to cover or finance the budget deficit will promote inflation. The results suggest that there is one-way causality from the supply of money and the budget deficit to inflation. There is also a one-way causal link between the supply of money and the budget deficit.

Published in International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 11, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13
Page(s) 14-22
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Budget Deficit, Inflation Rate, Money Supply, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Financial Methods, Granger Method, Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, Real Budgetary Capital Expenditure

References
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[2] Sargent, T. J. and Wallace N. (1981). “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5 (Fall), 1-17.
[3] De IIaan and Zelhorst; Edwards and Tabellini 1991.
[4] De IIaan or Zelhorst in 1990; Fishcer, et al. 2002.
[5] Edwards, S., and Tabellini (1991), "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries, Journal of International Money and Finance 10 (1) 16-48.
[6] Nienke Oomes, Money Demand, and Inflation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Russia, Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (3) (2005) 462–483.
[7] Dilshad Ahmad, Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth Empirical Evidence of Pakistan, International Journal of Applied Economic Studies, (2016), 13-18.
[8] Su C-W et al. (2016) Is there a causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation in China? Evidence from the quantity theory of money. Review of Development Economics 20 (3): 702-719.
[9] Trisdian PA, Pratomo Y, Saraswati BD (2015) Volatilities Inflation Daerah di Indonesia: Phenomena Monetary at Fiscal. KRITIS, Jurnal Studi Pembangunan Interdisiplin XXIV (1): 76-89.
[10] Karras, G. (1994). “Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits: Further International. Evidence”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13, no. 2, April, 190- 210. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(94)90015-9
[11] Lin, H. Y., and the Chu, H. P. (2013). Are our fiscal deficits inflationary? Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 214-233. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.04.006
[12] W Sun, S Jayaraman, W Chen, KA Persson, G Ceder. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (11), 3199-3204, 2015.
[13] Serban, M. (2002). “Budget Deficit and Inflation”, Academy of Economic Studies, Doctoral School of Finance and Banking, Bucharest.
[14] Woodford, M. (1994), 'Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,' Economic Theory, 4 (3), pp. 345–80. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(95)90033-0
[15] Woodford, M. (1995), 'Price-level determinacy without control of monetary aggregate,' Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43 (1), 1–46.
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[19] Elmendorf, D. W. & Furman, J. (2008) “If, When, How: A Primer on Fiscal Stimulus”, The Brookings Institution.
[20] Aamir, S., Yasir, M., Ullah, M. and Ahmad, S. (2014) “The Relationship and Impact of Money Growth and Budget Deficit on Inflation in Pakistan”, VFAST Transactions on Education and Social Sciences, 5 (2): 29-36. DOI=10.1.1.1064.792.
[21] Granger, C. W. J., and Newbold, P. (1969). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2), 111-120.
[22] Granger, C. W. J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37 (3): 424-438.
[23] Granger, C. W. J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3 (8).
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Elsun Nabatov. (2022). The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 11(1), 14-22. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13

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    ACS Style

    Elsun Nabatov. The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2022, 11(1), 14-22. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13

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    AMA Style

    Elsun Nabatov. The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2022;11(1):14-22. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13,
      author = {Elsun Nabatov},
      title = {The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan},
      journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
      volume = {11},
      number = {1},
      pages = {14-22},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20221101.13},
      abstract = {The most critical macroeconomic dynamics of economies include the supply of money, the budget deficit, and inflation. Moreover, inflation has a significant effect on the economy. Inflation is induced when monetary and fiscal policies are not used in a compatible and supportive manner. Because of this basis, it is interesting to examine the relationship between the money supply, the budget deficit, and inflation variables. Data was used from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic annual report, World Bank, and Statista database. By applying the Granger method of causality this study aims to empirically define the relationships in the Azerbaijan economy between the supply of money, budget deficits, and inflation. The duration of 2009-2019 is being analyzed in the study and with quarterly results, the study is carried out. Budget deficits can cause inflation only if they are reflected in monetary aggregates, as inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When the central bank tries to accelerate monetary liquidity to cover or finance the budget deficit will promote inflation. The results suggest that there is one-way causality from the supply of money and the budget deficit to inflation. There is also a one-way causal link between the supply of money and the budget deficit.},
     year = {2022}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - The Analysis of the Relationship Between Money Supply, Budget Deficit and Inflation Rate in Azerbaijan
    AU  - Elsun Nabatov
    Y1  - 2022/02/16
    PY  - 2022
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13
    T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    SP  - 14
    EP  - 22
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-756X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20221101.13
    AB  - The most critical macroeconomic dynamics of economies include the supply of money, the budget deficit, and inflation. Moreover, inflation has a significant effect on the economy. Inflation is induced when monetary and fiscal policies are not used in a compatible and supportive manner. Because of this basis, it is interesting to examine the relationship between the money supply, the budget deficit, and inflation variables. Data was used from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic annual report, World Bank, and Statista database. By applying the Granger method of causality this study aims to empirically define the relationships in the Azerbaijan economy between the supply of money, budget deficits, and inflation. The duration of 2009-2019 is being analyzed in the study and with quarterly results, the study is carried out. Budget deficits can cause inflation only if they are reflected in monetary aggregates, as inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When the central bank tries to accelerate monetary liquidity to cover or finance the budget deficit will promote inflation. The results suggest that there is one-way causality from the supply of money and the budget deficit to inflation. There is also a one-way causal link between the supply of money and the budget deficit.
    VL  - 11
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Caucasus Research Resources Center, Baku, Azerbaijan

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