Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria

Ennis David; Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen; Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel

doi:doi:10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria

Ennis David, Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen, Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 10, Issue 1)

Received: 3 February 2022 Accepted: 18 February 2022 Published: 25 February 2022

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Abstract

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and it’s among the countries where the novel corona virus is highly endemic. World Health Organization listed Nigeria among other 13 African countries identified as high-risk for the spread of the virus. Hence the need to observe the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, in other to study the trend of the virus and also look at some the epidemiological measures based on the case records of adult patients above 16 years with Corona virus admitted between February 2020 and February 2021. The research work tries to analyze the epidemiological measures of the COVID-19 using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Mortality Rate (MR) and Incidence Rate (IR) and also to analyze the trend of death across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The analysis of the epidemiological measure shows a wide variation in CFR among the six geopolitical zones, it’s an indication that it disproportionately affected states like Lagos and Abuja which are the most affluent. The result from IFR shows that the North-East has the highest infection rate at 4.88% while South-West has the least at 1.53%. MR shows south west with the highest population and highest death recorded of 11% while south-East has the lowest death rate. The incidence rate was lowest in North-East at 2.3% and highest in the South-West at 18.93%, studying this incidence rate of the six geopolitical zone one can conclude that the occupation and the economic activities of the zones really influenced the rates. The trend analysis of death across the six zones shows the South East has a perfect fitted polynomial series of order four model.

Published in	Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 10, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
Page(s)	1-9
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Trend Analysis, Case Fatality Rate, Infection Fatality Rate, Mortality Rate and Incidence Rate

References

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[4]	John P. A. I., (2020). Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data. Bull World Health Organ 2021 (99): 19–33F doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.265892.
[5]	Jesús A., Jesús A., Ana C. C. and Miguel A. G-V (2011). Trend Analysis of Water Quality Series Based on Rgression Models with Correlated Errors Journal of Hydrology 400 (3): 341-352. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.049.
[6]	Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (2020). COVID-19 situation report: Situation report 113. Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, 1–4. https://ncdc.gov.ng/diseases/streps/?cat=14&=Anupdata of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria.
[7]	Nwakuya, M. T. (2021). Survival Quantile Regression Analysis of COVID-19 in Rivers State, Nigeria. International Journal of Mathematical Research; vol 10 (1).
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[9]	Shu Y., Peihua C., Peipei D., Ziting W., Zian Z., Lin Y., Xuan Y., Qi Zhou, Xixi F., Xiaohui W., Weiguo L., Enmei L., Ju C., Yaolong C., Daihai H. (2020). Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis. Ann Transl Med; 8 (4): 128. doi: 10.21037/atm.2020.02.66.
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[12]	Turgut K. and Murat D. (2021). Exploring the emerging COVID-19 research trends and current status in the field of education: a bibliometric analysis and knowledge mapping. Educational Process: international journal, 10 (2): 7-27.
[13]	World Health Organization (2020). Laboratory testing for 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Suspected Human Cases. WHO press.
[14]	Zhao, S., Lin, Q., Ran, J., Musa, S. S., Yan, G., Wang, W. (2020). Preliminary es-timation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis., Vol 92 (2020), 214–217. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050.
[15]	Zubaida H., Muhammad J. H., Gulfaraz K. (2020). Population risk factors for COVID-19 deaths in Nigeria at sub-national level. Pan African Medical Journal. 2020; 35 (Suppl 2): doi: 10.11604/pamj.supp.2020.35.131.25258.

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APA Style

Ennis David, Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen, Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. (2022). Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 10(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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ACS Style

Ennis David; Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen; Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2022, 10(1), 1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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AMA Style

Ennis David, Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen, Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2022;10(1):1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11,
  author = {Ennis David and Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen and Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel},
  title = {Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-9},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20221001.11},
  abstract = {Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and it’s among the countries where the novel corona virus is highly endemic. World Health Organization listed Nigeria among other 13 African countries identified as high-risk for the spread of the virus. Hence the need to observe the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, in other to study the trend of the virus and also look at some the epidemiological measures based on the case records of adult patients above 16 years with Corona virus admitted between February 2020 and February 2021. The research work tries to analyze the epidemiological measures of the COVID-19 using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Mortality Rate (MR) and Incidence Rate (IR) and also to analyze the trend of death across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The analysis of the epidemiological measure shows a wide variation in CFR among the six geopolitical zones, it’s an indication that it disproportionately affected states like Lagos and Abuja which are the most affluent. The result from IFR shows that the North-East has the highest infection rate at 4.88% while South-West has the least at 1.53%. MR shows south west with the highest population and highest death recorded of 11% while south-East has the lowest death rate. The incidence rate was lowest in North-East at 2.3% and highest in the South-West at 18.93%, studying this incidence rate of the six geopolitical zone one can conclude that the occupation and the economic activities of the zones really influenced the rates. The trend analysis of death across the six zones shows the South East has a perfect fitted polynomial series of order four model.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria
AU  - Ennis David
AU  - Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen
AU  - Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel
Y1  - 2022/02/25
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 1
EP  - 9
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
AB  - Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and it’s among the countries where the novel corona virus is highly endemic. World Health Organization listed Nigeria among other 13 African countries identified as high-risk for the spread of the virus. Hence the need to observe the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, in other to study the trend of the virus and also look at some the epidemiological measures based on the case records of adult patients above 16 years with Corona virus admitted between February 2020 and February 2021. The research work tries to analyze the epidemiological measures of the COVID-19 using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Mortality Rate (MR) and Incidence Rate (IR) and also to analyze the trend of death across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The analysis of the epidemiological measure shows a wide variation in CFR among the six geopolitical zones, it’s an indication that it disproportionately affected states like Lagos and Abuja which are the most affluent. The result from IFR shows that the North-East has the highest infection rate at 4.88% while South-West has the least at 1.53%. MR shows south west with the highest population and highest death recorded of 11% while south-East has the lowest death rate. The incidence rate was lowest in North-East at 2.3% and highest in the South-West at 18.93%, studying this incidence rate of the six geopolitical zone one can conclude that the occupation and the economic activities of the zones really influenced the rates. The trend analysis of death across the six zones shows the South East has a perfect fitted polynomial series of order four model.
VL  - 10
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Ennis David

Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

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APA Style

Ennis David, Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen, Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. (2022). Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 10(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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ACS Style

Ennis David; Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen; Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2022, 10(1), 1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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AMA Style

Ennis David, Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen, Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel. Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2022;10(1):1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11

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@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11,
  author = {Ennis David and Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen and Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel},
  title = {Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-9},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20221001.11},
  abstract = {Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and it’s among the countries where the novel corona virus is highly endemic. World Health Organization listed Nigeria among other 13 African countries identified as high-risk for the spread of the virus. Hence the need to observe the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, in other to study the trend of the virus and also look at some the epidemiological measures based on the case records of adult patients above 16 years with Corona virus admitted between February 2020 and February 2021. The research work tries to analyze the epidemiological measures of the COVID-19 using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Mortality Rate (MR) and Incidence Rate (IR) and also to analyze the trend of death across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The analysis of the epidemiological measure shows a wide variation in CFR among the six geopolitical zones, it’s an indication that it disproportionately affected states like Lagos and Abuja which are the most affluent. The result from IFR shows that the North-East has the highest infection rate at 4.88% while South-West has the least at 1.53%. MR shows south west with the highest population and highest death recorded of 11% while south-East has the lowest death rate. The incidence rate was lowest in North-East at 2.3% and highest in the South-West at 18.93%, studying this incidence rate of the six geopolitical zone one can conclude that the occupation and the economic activities of the zones really influenced the rates. The trend analysis of death across the six zones shows the South East has a perfect fitted polynomial series of order four model.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Trend and Epidemiological Analysis of Coronavirus in Nigeria
AU  - Ennis David
AU  - Nwakuya Tobechukwu Maureen
AU  - Biu Oyinebifun Emmanyuel
Y1  - 2022/02/25
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 1
EP  - 9
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20221001.11
AB  - Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and it’s among the countries where the novel corona virus is highly endemic. World Health Organization listed Nigeria among other 13 African countries identified as high-risk for the spread of the virus. Hence the need to observe the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, in other to study the trend of the virus and also look at some the epidemiological measures based on the case records of adult patients above 16 years with Corona virus admitted between February 2020 and February 2021. The research work tries to analyze the epidemiological measures of the COVID-19 using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Mortality Rate (MR) and Incidence Rate (IR) and also to analyze the trend of death across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The analysis of the epidemiological measure shows a wide variation in CFR among the six geopolitical zones, it’s an indication that it disproportionately affected states like Lagos and Abuja which are the most affluent. The result from IFR shows that the North-East has the highest infection rate at 4.88% while South-West has the least at 1.53%. MR shows south west with the highest population and highest death recorded of 11% while south-East has the lowest death rate. The incidence rate was lowest in North-East at 2.3% and highest in the South-West at 18.93%, studying this incidence rate of the six geopolitical zone one can conclude that the occupation and the economic activities of the zones really influenced the rates. The trend analysis of death across the six zones shows the South East has a perfect fitted polynomial series of order four model.
VL  - 10
IS  - 1
ER  -

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