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Home / Books / Published Books / Risk Management in Agriculture: Theories and Methods
Risk Management in Agriculture: Theories and Methods
Wang Jian, Abdur Rehman
Published Date:
September, 2016
Science Publishing Group
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Table of Contents
The Whole Book
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Front Matter
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Chapter 1 Introduction
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1.1 Raising the Question
1.2 Risk, Uncertainty and Information
1.2.1 The Concept of Risk
1.2.2 The Concept of Uncertainty
1.2.3 The Relations Between Risk and Uncertainty
1.2.4 The Relationship Among Information, Risk and Uncertainty
1.2.5 Significance of Agricultural Informatization
1.3 The Characteristics and Present Situation of the Agricultural Risk Management
1.3.1 The Complexity of Agricultural Risk Management Research
1.3.2 Current Research on Agricultural Risk Management and Decision-Making
1.4 Research Technical Route, Content and Frame
1.4.1 Research Technical Route
1.4.2 Research Content and Frame
1.5 Book’s Rationales and General Information
1.5.1 The Certain Rationales of the Book Study
1.5.2 General Issues About the Study
Chapter 2 Economic Theoretical Foundation of the Study
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2.1 Systematic Study of Agricultural Production Economic Problem
2.1.1 The Analysis Based on Agricultural Production Function
2.1.2 The Analysis on Consumption Market of Agricultural Products
2.1.3 Analysis of Input Factors for Agricultural Production
2.2 The Duality Analysis of the Agricultural Production in Market System
2.2.1 Definition of Multi-Input Agricultural Production Function
2.2.2 The Profit Maximization Model
2.2.3 Supply and Demand Functions
2.2.4 The Cost Minimization Model
2.3 The Risk Utility Theory
2.3.1 The Risk Measure Axiom
2.3.2 The Utility of the Risk Aversion
2.3.3 The Risk and the Revenue
2.3.4 The Utility Principle of the Risk Income
2.3.5 The Expectation Utility and the Mean-Square Deviation
Chapter 3 Agricultural Production and Business Risks Identification
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3.1 Introductions to China Agricultural Risks and Uncertainty
3.1.1 Agricultural Natural Disasters
3.1.2 Agricultural Market Risk
3.2 Analysis of Environmental Impacts on Agricultural Production and Business Risk
3.2.1 Market Relations between Agriculture and Other Industries
3.2.2 Agricultural Ecological Economic System
3.2.3 Agriculture Participates in the Circulation of International Economy
3.3 Main Existence Forms of Agricultural Production Operational Risks
3.3.1 Agricultural Market Risk as One of the Main Risk
3.3.2 The Market Risk and the System Risk Intertwine Mutually in Agriculture
3.3.3 The Further Expansion of Agricultural Technology Risk
3.3.4 Farm Credit Risk Has Become the Agricultural New Risk Variety
3.4 Risk Identification Methods in Agricultural Production Management
3.4.1 The Principles of Recognizing Agricultural Production Operational Risk
3.4.2 The Procedures and Methods of Identifying Agricultural Risks
Chapter 4 Measuring Agricultural Production Management Risk
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4.1 Risk Probability Distributions and Digital Characteristics
4.1.1 Continuous Distribution of Risks Events
4.1.2 Digital Characteristics of Probability Distribution
4.2 To Measure the Risk and Profit
4.2.1 Conventional Risk Determination Method
4.2.2 Method of Game Theory
4.3 Information Risk
4.3.1 Absolute Risk of Information
4.3.2 Relative Risk of Information
4.3.3 Information Skill Risk
Chapter 5 Agricultural Production Risk Management Strategy
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5.1 The Selection of Stable Agricultural Production’s Item
5.1.1 The Stability Conception of Agricultural Production and Measurement
5.1.2 The Analysis Method of Deviation Coefficient
5.2 Diversification Management Strategies
5.2.1 Correlation Coefficient and Production Composing
5.2.2 The Case Analysis of Crops Production in Hebei Province
5.3 The Strategy of Enhancing Management Flexibility
5.3.1 The Flexibility of Cost
5.3.2 The Flexibility of Equipments
5.3.3 The Flexibility of Production Time and Products
5.4 Optimal Production Portfolio Strategy Model
5.4.1 Quadratic Programming of the Least Revenue Variance
5.4.2 The Solution of the Model
5.5 Stochastic Dominance Analysis on Agricultural Production Risk
5.5.1 The First Degree Stochastic Dominance
5.5.2 The Second Degree Stochastic Dominance
5.5.3 The Application of the First Degree Stochastic Dominance
5.6 Measures of Agriculture Insurance
5.6.1 Insurance Premiums and the Amount Calculation
5.6.2 Disaster Claims
5.6.3 Necessity of Joining Insurance and the Effect Analysis
5.6.4 Establishment of Perfect Modern Agricultural Insurance System
Chapter 6 Agricultural Market Risk Management Strategy
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6.1 The Futures Exchange of Agricultural Products
6.1.1 The Basic Operation Procedure of Futures Markets
6.1.2 Analysis of Agricultural Products Futures Transaction
6.2 The Price Discovery Function of the Futures Market
6.2.1 Analysis of Correlation
6.2.2 Analysis of Causation
6.2.3 The Basic Analysis
6.3 The Strategy of Hedge and Its Application
6.3.1 Optimum Hedging Rate
6.3.2 The Strategy of Hedge when Basis Changes
6.3.3 The Open Type Hedging Strategy
Chapter 7 Complexity of the Agriculture Production Risk Management
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7.1 Introduction of the Risk System Concept
7.1.1 The Necessity of Risk System Concept Definition
7.1.2 The Regularity of the Risk Systems Representation
7.2 The Risk System Hierarchical Distribution Model
7.2.1 System Structure Tree
7.2.2 The Management Entropy in the Structural Analysis of the Risk System
7.2.3 The Fractal Structure of the Risk Distribution
7.3 The Risk Gather Model
7.4 The Risk Transmission Model
7.4.1 Series Risks Transmission Model
7.4.2 Parallel Risks Transmission Model
7.5 The Model of Risk Spread
7.5.1 Definition of Risk System Spread
7.5.2 Build up of Risk Spread Model
7.5.3 Multi Dimensional Stochastic Spread Model
7.5.4 Lead to Chaos of Risk Spread
Chapter 8 Decision Support System of Agricultural Risk Management
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8.1 System Management and Decision of Agricultural Production and Business Risk
8.1.1 The Basic Idea of Risk Management
8.1.2 The Agricultural Production and Business Risk Management System
8.1.3 Management Strategy of Agricultural Production and Business Risk System
8.2 The Optimal Design of Agriculture Risk Management System
8.2.1 The Risk Transmission Model of Poultry Epidemic Disease
8.2.2 Risk Management System Optimization Model
8.3 Environmental Analysis of Macroeconomic Policy
8.3.1 Elastic Fractal Dimension Model
8.3.2 Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis
8.4 Using Info-tech and Network for Agricultural Risk Aversion
8.4.1 The Construction of China National Agriculture Information Network System
8.4.2 The Application of Agriculture Information Network
8.5 AHP Analysis
Chapter 9 Review and Outlook
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9.1 History of Agricultural Risk Study Review
9.1.1 Modern Economic Development Is Based on the Evolution of Market Concept
9.1.2 Research Progress of Agricultural Risk Management Methodology
9.2 Guidelines to the Future Research
Back Matter
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Prof. Dr. Wang Jian, the first author of this book, was born in Beijing on 13 th October, 1958. He currently works in Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, P.R.China as a Professor. He has 110 graduated master students, 11 Ph.D students, published 18 books and more than 190 academic research papers. And he has got so many awards, honors and has the exposure to present the research papers in national and international conference. The main Scientific Research areas are Agricultural Development Programming, Environmental Protection, Agricultural Sustainable Development, Rural Information System and Network Construction, Agricultural Industrialization, Agricultural Risk Management and Insurance with China Access to WTO and the development of poultry industry in Hebei province. Besides, he has remained the Vice President of Baoding Price Society, member of American Rural Sociological Society, Director of the Association for Soft Science of China.

Dr. Abdur Rehman, the second author of this book, was born in District Chitral, on 11 th April, 1982. He currently works as an Assistant Professor, in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province-Pakistan. He completed his B.Sc (Hons) and M.Sc (Hons) degrees in Agricultural Economics from the University of Agriculture Peshawar-Pakistan in 2004 and 2006 respectively. From February 2006 to September 2011, he worked as a Business development officer in Khushhali bank limited Pakistan, from September 2011 to October 2012, he taught as a lecturer of Economics in Institute of Business and Management Sciences, the University of Agriculture Peshawar-Pakistan. Besides, he completed his Ph.D in Agricultural Economics and Management from the Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding P.R.China in 2015. He has published 9 research papers in the national and international journals.
This book totally focused on the agricultural production and market risk, the affects on agriculture and farmers after China joining WTO. And also considered the concept of entropy as the important foundation of the risk analysis. It analyzed the agricultural risks existed real background in natural and market of China. Concentric and scope by using modern economics principle and risk management tools and especial using information to reduce uncertainty. It gives the descriptions on risk’s sources and distribution, transferring and dissipation, as the regular patterns. For the first two cases they general belonging to production risk management problems, and the last case should let risk market to make up. Therefore, the book concentrates on the agricultural production risk management to agribusiness risk management, so that it finally suggested to design a macro risk management system and a construction of global agricultural risk management system.
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