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Mathematical Model of Controlling the Spread of Malaria Disease Using Intervention Strategies
Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal
Volume 9, Issue 6, December 2020, Pages: 101-108
Received: Jan. 29, 2020; Accepted: Mar. 9, 2020; Published: Nov. 11, 2020
Author
Fekadu Tadege Kobe, Department of Mathematics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia
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Abstract
This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Simulation for controlling the spread of malaria Diseases Transmission dynamics. The model has seven non-linear differential equations which describe the control of malaria with two state variables for mosquito’s populations and five state variables for human’s population. To represent the classification of human population we have included protection and treatment compartments to the basic SIR epidemic model and extended it to SPITR model and to introduce the new SPITR modified model by adding vaccination for the transmission dynamics of malaria with four time dependent control measures in Ethiopia Insecticide treated bed nets (ITNS), Treatments, Indoor Residual Spray (IRs) and Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTP). The models are analyzed qualitatively to determine criteria for control of a malaria transmission dynamics and are used to calculate the basic reproduction R0. The equilibria of malaria models are determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the R0<1, the basic malaria model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The results also designing the effects of some model parameters, the infection rate and biting rate. The numerical analysis and numerical simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of malaria were suggest using insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, prompt effective diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals with vaccination is more effective for children.
Keywords
Malaria, Basic Reproduction Number, Backward Bifurcation Analysis, Vaccination and SPITR Modified Model
Fekadu Tadege Kobe, Mathematical Model of Controlling the Spread of Malaria Disease Using Intervention Strategies, Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal. Vol. 9, No. 6, 2020, pp. 101-108. doi: 10.11648/j.pamj.20200906.11
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