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Analysis of Fertility Pattern Through Mathematical Curves
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 4, Issue 2, March 2015, Pages: 64-70
Received: Feb. 13, 2015; Accepted: Feb. 26, 2015; Published: Mar. 21, 2015
Authors
Brijesh P. Singh, Faculty of Commerce & DST-CIMS, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
Kushagra Gupta, Department of Statistics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
K. K. Singh, Department of Statistics & Centre for Population Studies, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
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Abstract
The age-specific fertility curves normalized by total fertility can be considered as the density of the age at childbearing distribution. Generally the shape of age specific fertility rate changes from convex to concave after it reaches its maximum value. Proportion bearing children before age 35 may be interpreted as tempo of fertility and rest may be interpreted as excess fertility, which is risky for mother as well as child both. Thus, the purpose of this study is to observe the pattern of fertility over time and space keeping the above idea into consideration. To experience the modest change in fertility, the estimated total fertility rate, are computed for the data through simple mathematical model. For this purpose the secondary data on age-specific fertility rate and its forward and backward cumulative distributions have been considered. Also the validity of proposed models has been checked through appropriate technique.
Keywords
Age specific fertility rate, Mathematical Model, Polynomial Curve, Cross Validity Prediction Power, Shrinkage
Brijesh P. Singh, Kushagra Gupta, K. K. Singh, Analysis of Fertility Pattern Through Mathematical Curves, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 2, 2015, pp. 64-70. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150402.14
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