Research on Beijing Total Logistics Demand Prediction Based on Grey Prediction Model
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 4, Issue 3, May 2015, Pages: 211-222
Received: Apr. 23, 2015; Accepted: May 6, 2015; Published: Jun. 1, 2015
Views 3220      Downloads 78
Authors
Jie Zhu, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Hong Zhang, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Li Zhou, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
As an important part of regional logistics demand forecasting in logistics system planning, in order to develop regional logistics development policy, planning and construction of logistics infrastructure, provide the basis for the necessary for analysis of the logistics market development trend. Due to the development of China's logistics industry is still in its infancy stage, various statistical data of logistics demand forecast needs is not complete, in the limited sample data, how to make a reasonable demand forecast for regional logistics has become a very important research topic. Beijing as Chinese political economic center, is the domestic cargo turnover, and an important hub for import and export, As the core of the Bohai Sea Economic Circle, Beijing in the regional economic development as a transport hub and logistics channel plays a more and more important role, therefore, should be on the Beijing logistics demand forecast analysis. This paper analyzes the present situation of Beijing logistics development, starting from the total economic output, economic structure, economic location and other aspects, basic economic situation of Beijing is analyzed. From the transportation infrastructure construction present situation, the current status of development of logistics industry, logistics enterprises are analyzed in terms of status and problems of Beijing logistics development; then further analysis of Beijing logistics development environment, all of these indicate that it is very necessary for Beijing logistics demand forecast. Using the econometric model to analyze and forecast the total demand analysis of Beijing logistics, discusses the influencing factors of Beijing logistics demand, thus the construction of index system of logistics demand forecast, and selects freight, freight turnover as a quantitative index to measure the total quantity of logistics demand, using the Eviews model and the analysis, obtains the Beijing logistics demand presents the fast growth to the situation in the future five years.
Keywords
Logistics Demand Forecasting, Econometric Model, the Grey Prediction Model
To cite this article
Jie Zhu, Hong Zhang, Li Zhou, Research on Beijing Total Logistics Demand Prediction Based on Grey Prediction Model, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2015, pp. 211-222. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.28
References
[1]
Cai Xiaoli,Analysis and forecast of regional logistics demand. [J]; logistics technology, 2004 (12)
[2]
Zhang Fengrong, Jin Junwu; the application of grey system model in the prediction of logistics amount of goods. [J]; 2003 (06) of industrial technology economy
[3]
Cao Mingxia;Study on the grey incidence analysis model and its application [D]; Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics 2007
[4]
Chen Changying. Research on analysis and forecast of logistics demand in Guangxi. [D]; Wuhan University of Technology 2010
[5]
Zhang Lixue; Study on the prediction method of city logistics demand [D]; Southeast University; 2006
[6]
Sun Minwei, Shao Jianli; Study on the establishment of a modern logistics system of statistical indicators.[J]; 2007 (20) of modern business
[7]
Gong Shusheng, Liu Kaiming; Analysis of the development situation of logistics in China.[J] China circulation economy; 2003 (01).
[8]
Chandyan; Wang Wenke; Hunan Province logistics demand forecast [A]; "two types of social construction and management of" HunanInnovation Forum [C] 2008
[9]
Yang Fan; Analysis of the influence of Chinese modern logistics industry on regional economy [D]; Jilin University 2011
[10]
Zhao Qilan; Wang Jia Qiong; Liu Hongzhi; analysis of the logistics development needs and potential demand; [J]; China soft science 2004
[11]
Wang Xiaoyuan, Li Jun. The grey GM (1,1) model is applied to Forecasting Regional Logistics Scale, Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2005 (06)
[12]
Cai Dingping; logistics statistics [M] 2010.03
[13]
Chen Yana, Ju Songdong; regional logistics demand analysis -- Taking the Yangtze River Delta region of Nantong as an example [J]; Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University (SOCIAL SCIENCE EDITION) 2005 (04)
[14]
Cao Juan; the discussion on the construction of modern logistics system of statistical indicators of [J]; logistics engineering and management, 2010 (1)
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186