Modelling Time to Mortality with Congestive Heart Failure: A Case Study in Wollo General and Referral Government Hospitals
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 9, Issue 3, May 2020, Pages: 21-36
Received: Oct. 7, 2019; Accepted: Apr. 16, 2020; Published: Apr. 28, 2020
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Habtamu Dessie, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Natural and Computational Science, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Yenefenta Wube, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Natural and Computational Science, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Belete Adelo, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Natural and Computational Science, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Eskeziaw Abebe, Department of Midwifery, Faculty of Natural and Computational Science, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
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Congestive heart failure is a complex clinical syndrome of functional or structural impairment in the heart. Nowadays heart failure is common and increasing in the world and researches on this area is limited. Therefore the aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modelling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on CHF patients who were on treatment follow up at both WGH and DRH from January 1, 2010 to December 30, 2016. A total of 487 patients were selected by using simple random sampling from the patient's medical record. Semi parametric, parametric PH models and AFT models was employed to identify the best model which shown as the real causation of factors with the outcome of CHF which is death. The Weibull accelerated failure time model result showed that the risk factors related to accelerating or decelerating the lifespan were age (TR=0.962, p=0.000), Residence (rural) (TR=1.24, p=0.019), Nutritional (Poor) (TR=0.582, p=0.000), Smoking (TR=0.774, p=0.005), Alcoholism (TR=1.394, p=0.010), Diabetes mellitus (TR=0.49, p=0.000), Hypertension (TR=0.079, p=0.019), Stroke (TR=0.799, p=0.014), Coronary Artery disease (TR=0.276, p=0.012), Tuberculosis bacillus (TR=0.103, p=0.000) as a co morbidity and the interaction between age and Tuberculosis bacillus (p=0.000), age and Coronary artery disease (p=0.041), Diabetes mellitus with Hypertension (p=0.000), Hypertension with Nutritional status (p=0.000) and age with time (p=0.000) were found statistically significant. The Weibull accelerated failure time model performed better explain the effect of predictors than other Cox and parametric PH models. Thus, researchers should use parametric AFT models to see regression varying effect covariates. Frequent monitoring and follow up of Patients with heart failure should be adopted.
CHF, Retrospective Cohort Study, Parametric AFT Model, Censoring, Mortality
To cite this article
Habtamu Dessie, Yenefenta Wube, Belete Adelo, Eskeziaw Abebe, Modelling Time to Mortality with Congestive Heart Failure: A Case Study in Wollo General and Referral Government Hospitals, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 9, No. 3, 2020, pp. 21-36. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.11
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