Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 4, Issue 1-1, January 2015, Pages: 19-23
Received: Aug. 16, 2014; Accepted: Feb. 8, 2015; Published: Mar. 20, 2015
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Authors
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Anteneh Asmare Godana, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
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Abstract
For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.
Keywords
Trade Balance, ARIMA
To cite this article
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana, Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Special Issue: Computational Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 1-1, 2015, pp. 19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
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