Food Production Modelling Using Fixed Effect Panel Data for Nigeria and Other 14 West African Countries (1990-2013)
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 5, Issue 4, July 2016, Pages: 208-218
Received: May 22, 2016;
Accepted: May 31, 2016;
Published: Jul. 8, 2016
Views 3994 Downloads 144
Olatunji Taofik Arowolo, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, Lagos, Nigeria
Matthew Iwada Ekum, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, Lagos, Nigeria
In this research, the fixed effect panel data predictive model was employed to formulate panel regression models of food production of 15 selected Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using four (4) World Development Indicators (WDI) as explanatory variables. Data were collected from 1990 to 2013. The four WDI are Food imports (% of merchandise imports), Agricultural land (% of land area), Fertilizer consumption (kilograms per hectare of arable land) and Inflation (consumer prices annual %). The fixed effect with cross-sectional seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) static panel data method was employed. The result of the analysis shows that agricultural land and fertilizer consumption have significant positive effect on the food production index of ECOWAS countries, while food imports and rate of inflation have significant negative effect on food production index of the ECOWAS countries. It is seen that 98.8% of the variation in food production among ECOWAS countries can be explained by the variations in food imports, agricultural land, fertilizer consumption and inflation. We therefore recommend that ECOWAS countries should increase agricultural land and fertilizer consumption and reduce food imports and rate of inflation in order to boost their food production level and have excess to export.
Olatunji Taofik Arowolo,
Matthew Iwada Ekum,
Food Production Modelling Using Fixed Effect Panel Data for Nigeria and Other 14 West African Countries (1990-2013), American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics.
Vol. 5, No. 4,
2016, pp. 208-218.
Ekum, M. I., Farinde, D. A. and Ayoola, F. J. (2013), “Panel Data: The Effects of Some World Development Indicator (WDI) on GDP Per Capita of Selected African Union (AU) Countries (1981-2011)”, International Journal of Science and Technology (IJST Publications UK), vol. 2 No. 12, December, 2013. Pp 900-907.
Wood, A. (2002), “Could Africa Be Like America?” A paper presented at the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, D. C. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTABCDEWASHINGTON2002/Resources/Wood.pdf. Accessed on 25/05/2015.
Lopriore, C. and Muehlhoff, E. (2010), “Food Security and Nutrition Trends in West Africa - Challenges and the Way Forward”, Nutrition Programmes Service, Food and Agriculture Organization Rome, Italy.
Samuelson, P. A., Koopmans, T. C. and Stone, J. R. N. (1954), “Report of the evaluative committee for Econometrica”. Econometrica 22, 141–6.
Zakari, S., Ying, L. and Song, B. (2014), “Factors Influencing Household Food Security in West Africa: The Case of Southern Niger”. Sustainability, 6, 1191-1202.
Marcantonio, F. D, Opazo, C. M, Hurle J. B and Demeke, M (2014), “Determinants of Food Production in Sub Sahara Africa: The Impact of Policy, Market Access and Governance”, Paper Presented at EAAE 2014 Congress (Agri-Food and Rural Innovations for Healthier Societies), Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Hedeh, L. (2013), “The role of Nigerian Agriculture in West African Food Security”, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Jan 14, 2013. Available at http://nssp.ifpri.info/page/5/.Accessed on 25/05/2015.
Obasi, P. C, Ukoha, H. A, Ukewuihe, I. S. and Mark, N. M. (2013). “Factors Affecting Agricultural Productivity among Arable Crop Farmers in Imo State, Nigeria”, American Journal of Experimental Agriculture 3 (2): 443-454, 2013.
Chauvin, N. D., Mulangu, F. and Porto, G. (2012), “Food Production and Consumption Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects for the Transformation of the Agricultural Sector”, African Center for Economic Transformation. Guido Porto, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Working Paper, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa, WP 2012-011: February 2012. Available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/rac/wpaper/2012-011.html (accessed March 10, 2015).
Tesfaye, E. (2014), “Determinants of Agricultural Export in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Study”, American Journal of Trade and Policy, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2014 (Issue 3).
Drukker, D. M. (2003), “Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models”. Stata Journal 3: Pp 168|177.
Baltagi, B. H. (1980), “On seemingly unrelated regressions with error components”, Econometrica 48, 1547-1551.
Bacchetta, M. (2007), “Releasing Export Constraints: The Role of Governments”, ERSD, WTO, available online at http://www.aercafrica.org/documents/export-supply-working-paper/Bachetta 18DB37.pdf accessed on 15/03/,2015.
World Bank (2007), “World Development Indicators”, World Bank, Washington, D. C. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.Accessed on 25/05/2015.
Biggs, T. (2007), “Assessing Export Supply Constraints: Methodology, Data, and Measurement”, available online at http://www.aercafrica.org/documents/export_supply workingpapers/BiggsT- Assessing.pdf.Accessed on 15/03/2015.
Kandiero, T. and Randa, J. (2004), “Agricultural Exports: Important Issues for Sub-Saharan Africa”, African Development Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, Pp 1-35.
Alemayehu, G. (1999), “Profile of Ethiopia’s Export Performance’’, Proceedings of the Ethiopian Economic Association Annual Conference on the Ethiopian Economy, pp. 271-282.