Comparison of ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing Model on 2014 Air Quality Index in Yanqing County, Beijing, China
Applied and Computational Mathematics
Volume 4, Issue 6, December 2015, Pages: 456-461
Received: Nov. 1, 2015; Accepted: Nov. 9, 2015; Published: Nov. 19, 2015
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Authors
Jie Zhu, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Ruoling Zhang, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Binbin Fu, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
Renhao Jin, School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China
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Abstract
In order to study the changes of air quality index (AQI) in Yanqing County, Beijing, China and predict the trend of AQI value, this paper constructed a time-series analysis.A non-stationary trend is found, and the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model and Holt exponential smoothing model are found to sufficiently model the data. In comparison of these two model fittings, the ARIMA modelling result are better than Holt modelling’s in terms of trend capturing and result MSE, and in this data it is better to apply the ARIMA model to predict the future AQI values.
Keywords
Air Quality Index (AQI), Prediction, ARIMA Model, Exponential Smoothing Model, Holt Model
To cite this article
Jie Zhu, Ruoling Zhang, Binbin Fu, Renhao Jin, Comparison of ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing Model on 2014 Air Quality Index in Yanqing County, Beijing, China, Applied and Computational Mathematics. Vol. 4, No. 6, 2015, pp. 456-461. doi: 10.11648/j.acm.20150406.19
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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