Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga; Benjamin Agboola Oyejola; Johnson Taiwo Olajide

doi:doi:10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide

Received: 26 February 2016 Accepted: 10 March 2016 Published: 29 March 2016

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Abstract

Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.

DOI	10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
Published in	Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 2, April 2016)
Page(s)	52-58
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Akaike Information Criterion, AR Model, MA Model, ARMA Model, Forecasting, Rainfall

References

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[10]	Serrano, V. L Mateos and J. A Garcia (1999) Physisc and Chemistry of the earth Part B, Hydrology, oceans and Atmosphere, Vol 24, issues 1-2, pp 85-90.
[11]	Olaniran, O. J (2006). Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall of different daily amounts, 1919-1985, Journal of Climate Change, Vol 19, pp 319-341.
[12]	Agboola, Tunde and Olurin, T. A (2000). Social Environmental Dimensions of the Changing land cover pattern in Ibadan. A hilly indigeneous African City. Nigerian Journal of Economics and Social Studies. Vol 42, issues 2, pp 384.
[13]	National Research Council (2010). America’s Climate Choices. Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D. C.
[14]	Adejuwon, J. O (2011). Rainfall seasonality in Niger Delta Belt, Nigeria, Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 5(2): pp 51-60.
[15]	Olumide B. A, Saidu M, Oluwaseun A (2013). Evaluation of Best fit Probability Distribution models for the Prediction of Rainfall and Runoff Volume (Case study Tagwai Dam, Minna, Nigeria). International Journal of Engineering and Technology, U. K. Vol. 3, No 2, pp 94-98, ISSN: 2049-3444.
[16]	Oyenuga, I. F, Olajide, J. T & Ayansola, O. A (2013). Comparison of Stochastic Time Series Models on the Climate Change and its Attendant Effect Using Relative Humidity. Paper presented at 1^st international conference organized by Civil Engineering Department, The Polytechnic, Ibadan.
[17]	Olajide, J. T, Oyenuga, I. F, Ayansola, O. A & Agboluaje, S. A (2013). Modeling of Quarterly Rainfall in Nigeria. Paper presented at 1^st international conference organized by Civil Engineering Department, The Polytechnic, Ibadan.
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Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. (2016). Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(2), 52-58. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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ACS Style

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga; Benjamin Agboola Oyejola; Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2016, 4(2), 52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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AMA Style

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2016;4(2):52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16,
  author = {Iyabode Favour Oyenuga and Benjamin Agboola Oyejola and Johnson Taiwo Olajide},
  title = {Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {4},
  number = {2},
  pages = {52-58},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20160402.16},
  abstract = {Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.},
 year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria
AU  - Iyabode Favour Oyenuga
AU  - Benjamin Agboola Oyejola
AU  - Johnson Taiwo Olajide
Y1  - 2016/03/29
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 52
EP  - 58
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
AB  - Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.
VL  - 4
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria
Benjamin Agboola Oyejola

Department of Statistics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
Johnson Taiwo Olajide

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria

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APA Style

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. (2016). Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(2), 52-58. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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ACS Style

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga; Benjamin Agboola Oyejola; Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2016, 4(2), 52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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AMA Style

Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2016;4(2):52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16,
  author = {Iyabode Favour Oyenuga and Benjamin Agboola Oyejola and Johnson Taiwo Olajide},
  title = {Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {4},
  number = {2},
  pages = {52-58},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20160402.16},
  abstract = {Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.},
 year = {2016}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria
AU  - Iyabode Favour Oyenuga
AU  - Benjamin Agboola Oyejola
AU  - Johnson Taiwo Olajide
Y1  - 2016/03/29
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 52
EP  - 58
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
AB  - Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.
VL  - 4
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download