Statistical Analysis of Adult HIV/AIDS Patients and Modelling of AIDS Disease Progression
Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 4, Issue 5, October 2016, Pages: 189-201
Received: Aug. 4, 2016; Accepted: Aug. 13, 2016; Published: Sep. 13, 2016
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Author
Desalegn Petros Kelkile, Department of Statistics, Dilla University, Dilla Town, Ethiopia
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Abstract
This study has been intended to apply the cox proportional hazard model to review the determinant factors of survival time and discrete time homogeneous semi markov model to predict the clinical progression of AIDS disease by secondary data obtained from the antiretroviral therapy unit of Dilla and Hawassa University Referral Hospitals. Patients were followed for a median of 34 months. Of total sample, 517 (68.4%) were female and 239 (31.6%) were male. In the followed up period, 110 (14.5%) patients died and 646 (85.5%) patients were censored. The cox regression result indicated that the survival time of the HIV patient was significantly connected with adherence level, age, alcohol use, CD4, condom use, functional status, marital status and WHO stage. The outcome of homogenous semi-markov model showed that the survival probability of a patient increased when CD4 count increased. The study is suggested that the above significant variables should be viewed as significant component of the routine clinical care for patients on ART and patients require checking CD4 count in the suitable day as physician arrange to know their disease stage.
Keywords
Antiretroviral Therapy, Cox Proportional Hazard Model, Discrete Time Homogeneous Semi-Markov Model, AIDS Progression
To cite this article
Desalegn Petros Kelkile, Statistical Analysis of Adult HIV/AIDS Patients and Modelling of AIDS Disease Progression, Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 5, 2016, pp. 189-201. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160405.12
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Copyright © 2016 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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