Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015, Pages: 120-128
Received: Feb. 27, 2015;
Accepted: May 29, 2015;
Published: Jun. 11, 2015
Views 8540 Downloads 341
Kseniia Mikova, Department of Geography and Environmental studies, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania
Enock Makupa, Department of Geography and Environmental studies, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania
John Kayumba, Natural Resource Management Unit, Rwanda Agriculture Board, Kigali, Rwanda
For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.
Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda, Earth Sciences.
Vol. 4, No. 3,
2015, pp. 120-128.
A. J. Challinor, T. R. Wheeler, P. Q. Craufurd, et al. (2007). Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agric Ecosyst Environ 2007;119:190–204.
A. Jarvis, J. Ramirez-Villegas, B.V.H. Campo, and C. Navarro-Racines (2012). Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? Tropical Plant Biology, 5(1), pp. 9-29.
D. M. Rosenthal and D. R. Ort, (2012). Examining cassava’s potential to enhance food security under climate change. Tropical Plant Biology, 5(1), pp. 30-38.
El-Maayar Mustapha, Manfred A. Lange (2013). Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations. Atmosphere, 4, 365-382; doi:10.3390/atmos4040365.
Food Agricultural Organization (2003) World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO perspective. ISBN 92 5 104835 5.
G. Y. Mtui (2011). Status of biotechnology in Eastern and Central Africa. Biotechnology and Molecular Biology Review Vol. 6(9), pp. 183-198, December 2011. DOI: 10.5897/BMBR11.021. ISSN 1538-2273.
J. Liu, S. Fritz, C.F.A. van Wesenbeeck, M. Fuchs, L. You, M. Obersteiner, and H. Yang (2008). A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global and Planetary Change, 64(3-4), pp. 222-235.
K. D. Mikova, U.G. Wali and I. Nhapi (2010). Infilling of missing rainfall data from a long term monitoring records. International Journal of Ecology & Development (IJED). IJED/SI-2009-08. 2010. pp. 89-99.
K. H. Cook and E.K. Vizy (2013). Projected changes in East African rainy seasons. Journal of Climate, 26(16), pp. 5931-5948.
M. Boko, I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo, and P. Yanda (2007). Africa. In: Climate сhange 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 433-467.
Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (2012). Annual Report. 2011-2012. Rwanda. pp. 102.
Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (2013). Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture in Rwanda Phase III. Pp. 83.
Ministry of disaster management and refugee affairs (2012). Disaster high risk zones on floods and landslides. Kigali. Rwanda. Pp. 33.
Ministry of lands, environment, forestry, water and mines (2006). National adaptation programmes of action to climate change (NAPA). Rwanda. Pp. 85.
N. F. Befani and G. P. Kalinin (1983). Exercises and methodical approaches in hydrological forecasting. Meteoisdat. Russia. Leningrad. pp. 5-25.
P. Karangwa (2007). Report on Plant Breeding and Related Biotechnology Capacity. P. 15.
REMA (2007). Rwanda state of environment: Our environment for economic development; Rwanda environment management authority (REMA), Kigali, Rwanda.
T. L. Roberts (2009). The Role of Fertilizer in Growing the World’s Food. Better crops. Vol. 93, No. 2. Pp. 12-15.
T. Nakaegawa, C. Wachana, and KAKUSHIN Team-3 Modeling Group (2012). First impact assessment of hydrological cycle in the Tana River Basin, Kenya, under a changing climate in the late 21st century. Hydrological Research Letters, 6, pp. 29-34.
V. Kelly, E. Mpyisi, A. Murekezi, D. Neven (2001). Fertilizer Consumption in Rwanda: Past Trends, Future Potential, and Determinants. Pp.30.
V. R. Reddy, Y. A. Pachepsky. (2000) Predicting crop yields under climate change conditions from monthly GCM weather projections. Environ Modell Software 2000;15:79–86.
W. Akpalu, R. M. Hassan, C. Ringler. (2008). Climate variability and maize yield in South Africa: results from GME and MELE methods. Environment and production technology division IFPRI discussion paper; 2008. p. 1–12.
WFP/FEWS-NET (2003). Rwanda vulnerability baseline report. World Food Programme of the United Nations (WFP)/ Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS-NET), Kigali. Pp. 103.
World Bank, (2014). Agriculture and rural development (accessed on http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ on 26 of May 2015).
Economic Research Service/USDA (unpublished) Improved Seed Is a Major Contributor to Crop Yield Gains and Agricultural Productivity. The Seed Industry in U.S. Agriculture / AIB-786. Pp. 5-6.