Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan
Earth Sciences
Volume 9, Issue 1, February 2020, Pages: 16-31
Received: Dec. 19, 2019; Accepted: Jan. 2, 2020; Published: Jan. 9, 2020
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Author
Kun-Sung Liu, Department of Civil Engineering & Hazard Mitigation Research Center, Kao Yuan University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC
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Abstract
In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.
Keywords
Sanchiao Fault, Seismic Hazard Potential, Potential Human Fatality, ShakeMap, Northern Taiwan
To cite this article
Kun-Sung Liu, Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan, Earth Sciences. Vol. 9, No. 1, 2020, pp. 16-31. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
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Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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