Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate
Earth Sciences
Volume 9, Issue 4, August 2020, Pages: 117-125
Received: Apr. 26, 2020; Accepted: Jun. 20, 2020; Published: Jul. 30, 2020
Views 29      Downloads 53
Habibullo Abdussamatov, Pulkovo Observatory of the RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia
Article Tools
Follow on us
The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.
Climate, Energy Balance, Solar Irradiance, Cooling, Grand Solar Minimum, Thermal Energy, Feedback Effects, Little Ice Age, Climate Sensitivity
To cite this article
Habibullo Abdussamatov, Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate, Earth Sciences. Vol. 9, No. 4, 2020, pp. 117-125. doi: 10.11648/
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License ( which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2005). Long-term variations of the integral radiation flux and possible temperature changes in the solar core // Kinematics and Phys. Celest. Bodies. 21, 328-332.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2012). Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling. Kinematics and Phys. Celest. Bodies. 2, 62-68.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2015). Current long-term negative average annual energy balance of the Earth leads to the new Little Ice Age. Thermal Sci. 19, S279-S288.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2016). The new Little Ice Age has started. Evidence-Based Climate Science. Easterbrook D. J. (ed) Oxford: Elsevier, 307-328.
Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, A. V., Nyeki, S. E. (2011). A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astron. Astrophys. 529, A67.
Egorova, T., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Shapiro, A. I., Usoskin, I., Beer, J., Tagirov, R. V., Peter, T. (2018). Revised historical solar irradiance forcing. Astron. Astrophys. 615, A85.
Fröhlich, C. (2016). Solar Constant
SunSpot Data. (2014). SIDC-Solar Influences Data Analysis Center,
Milankovitch, M. (1998). Kanon der erdbestrahlungen und seine anwendung auf das eiszeitenproblem. In: Canon of insolation and the Ice Age problem. With Introduction and biographical essay by Nikola Pantic. Hardbound Alven Global Belgrade, 636 pp (in English).
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2017). Lunnaya observatoriya dlya issledovanii klimata Zemli v epokhu glubokogo pokholodaniya (Lunar Observatory for Earth climate studies in the deep Ice Age) St. Petersburg: Nauka, 2017.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2006). The time of the end of the current solar cycle and the relationship between duration of 11-year cycles and secular cycle phase. Kinematics and Phys. Celest. Bodies. 22, 141-143.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2015). Power of the Energy of 11-Year Solar Cycle and Its Dependence on Solar Cycle Length. Kinematics and Phys. Celest. Bodies. 31, 54-60.
Climate Change: New Antarctic Ice Core Data. 2000.
Fischer, H., Wahlen, M., Smith, J., Mastroianni, D., Deck, B. (1999). Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations. Science. 283, 1712-1714.
Pedro, J. B., Rasmussen, S. O., van Ommen, T. D. (2012). Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation. Climate of the Past. 8, 1213-1221.
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., PÉpin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., Stievenard, M. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature. 399, 429–436.
Abdussamatov, H. I., Bogoyavlenskii, A. I., Khankov, S. I., Lapovok, E. V. (2010). Modeling of the Earth’s planetary heat balance with electrical circuit analogy. Journal of Electromagnetic Analysis and Applications. 2, 133-138.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2019). Climate change under the influence of the Sun in present and future. Problems of Geography. N 149. 220-262, (in Russian).
Nils-Axel, M. (2015). The approaching new Grand solar minimum and Little Ice Age climate conditions. Nat. Sci. 7, 510–518.
Svensmark, H., Friis-Christensen, E. (1997). Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar–climate relationships. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 59, 1225–1232.
Svensmark, H. (2007). Cosmoclimatology: A new theory emerges. Astron. Geophys. 48, 1.18–1.24.
Svensmark, H., Enghoff, M. B., Shaviv, N. J., Svensmark, J. (2017). Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei. Nat. Commun. 8, 2199,
Stozhkov, Y. I., Bazilevskaya, G. A., Makhmutov, V. S., Svirzhevsky, N. S., Svirzhevskaya, A. K., Logachev, V. I., Okhlopkov V. P. (2017). Cosmic rays, solar activity, and changes in the Earth’s climate. Bull. Russ. Acad. Sci.: Phys. 81, 252–254.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2018). Cosmic rays and clouds variations effect on the climate is insignificantly. Applied Physics Research. 10, 81-86.
Abdussamatov, H. I. (2019). The Earth’s climate does not depend on variations in cosmic rays and cloud coverage. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 59, 935–941.
Nigmatulin, R. I. (2010). The ocean: climate, resources, and natural disasters. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 80, 338-349.
Odyssey studies changing weather and climate on Mars. (2005). The changing south polar cap of Mars: 1999–2005, MGS MOC Release no. MOC2-1151.
Ravilious, K. (2016). Mars melt hints at solar, not human, cause for warming, scientist says. National Geographic News. May 6.
Abdussamatov, H. I., Khankov, S. I., Lapovok, Ye. V. (2011). Factors defining the thermal inertia characteristics of the system Earth – atmosphere. Proceedings of the All-Russian annual conference on solar and solar-terrestrial physics. St. Petersburg. 307-310, (in Russian).
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186