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Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda

Received: 27 February 2015    Accepted: 29 May 2015    Published: 11 June 2015
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Abstract

For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.

DOI 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15
Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015)
Page(s) 120-128
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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Rainfall Data Reconstruction, Different-Cumulative Curves, Rainfall Augmentation, Crop Production

References
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[3] D. M. Rosenthal and D. R. Ort, (2012). Examining cassava’s potential to enhance food security under climate change. Tropical Plant Biology, 5(1), pp. 30-38.
[4] El-Maayar Mustapha, Manfred A. Lange (2013). Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations. Atmosphere, 4, 365-382; doi:10.3390/atmos4040365.
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[8] K. D. Mikova, U.G. Wali and I. Nhapi (2010). Infilling of missing rainfall data from a long term monitoring records. International Journal of Ecology & Development (IJED). IJED/SI-2009-08. 2010. pp. 89-99.
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[11] Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (2012). Annual Report. 2011-2012. Rwanda. pp. 102.
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[13] Ministry of disaster management and refugee affairs (2012). Disaster high risk zones on floods and landslides. Kigali. Rwanda. Pp. 33.
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[16] P. Karangwa (2007). Report on Plant Breeding and Related Biotechnology Capacity. P. 15.
[17] REMA (2007). Rwanda state of environment: Our environment for economic development; Rwanda environment management authority (REMA), Kigali, Rwanda.
[18] T. L. Roberts (2009). The Role of Fertilizer in Growing the World’s Food. Better crops. Vol. 93, No. 2. Pp. 12-15.
[19] T. Nakaegawa, C. Wachana, and KAKUSHIN Team-3 Modeling Group (2012). First impact assessment of hydrological cycle in the Tana River Basin, Kenya, under a changing climate in the late 21st century. Hydrological Research Letters, 6, pp. 29-34.
[20] V. Kelly, E. Mpyisi, A. Murekezi, D. Neven (2001). Fertilizer Consumption in Rwanda: Past Trends, Future Potential, and Determinants. Pp.30.
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Author Information
  • Department of Geography and Environmental studies, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania

  • Department of Geography and Environmental studies, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania

  • Natural Resource Management Unit, Rwanda Agriculture Board, Kigali, Rwanda

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  • APA Style

    Kseniia Mikova, Enock Makupa, John Kayumba. (2015). Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda. Earth Sciences, 4(3), 120-128. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15

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    ACS Style

    Kseniia Mikova; Enock Makupa; John Kayumba. Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda. Earth Sci. 2015, 4(3), 120-128. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15

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    AMA Style

    Kseniia Mikova, Enock Makupa, John Kayumba. Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda. Earth Sci. 2015;4(3):120-128. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15

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  • @article{10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15,
      author = {Kseniia Mikova and Enock Makupa and John Kayumba},
      title = {Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda},
      journal = {Earth Sciences},
      volume = {4},
      number = {3},
      pages = {120-128},
      doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20150403.15},
      abstract = {For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.},
     year = {2015}
    }
    

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    T1  - Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda
    AU  - Kseniia Mikova
    AU  - Enock Makupa
    AU  - John Kayumba
    Y1  - 2015/06/11
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15
    T2  - Earth Sciences
    JF  - Earth Sciences
    JO  - Earth Sciences
    SP  - 120
    EP  - 128
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-5982
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.15
    AB  - For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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