Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso
International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
Volume 8, Issue 2, April 2020, Pages: 27-32
Received: Apr. 15, 2020; Accepted: May 7, 2020; Published: May 27, 2020
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Authors
Lucien Damiba, Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Ali Doumounia, Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; Institut of Science (IDS), Department of Sciences Physics, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Aminata Zeba, Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Tiéba Nissi Traoré, WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
François Zougmoré, Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
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Abstract
Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.
Keywords
Rural Community, Sahel, Climate Change, Resilience, Forecast
To cite this article
Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, François Zougmoré, Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso, International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis. Vol. 8, No. 2, 2020, pp. 27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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