Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model
International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 3, June 2017, Pages: 40-46
Received: Jan. 3, 2017; Accepted: Jan. 18, 2017; Published: Jun. 27, 2017
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Authors
Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Department of Electrical/Electronic and Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Nigeria
Edet Joseph Archibong, Department of Physic, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Nsikak John Affia, Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot Osura Ikot Ekpene, Nigeria
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Abstract
In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.
Keywords
Time Series Analysis, Industrial Electricity Consumption, Forecasting, Harvey Model, Autoregressive Model
To cite this article
Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia, Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering. Vol. 6, No. 3, 2017, pp. 40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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