Energy security in the Dominican Republic is far from acceptable; black-outs, high tariffs, politicized decisions etc. are common. Furthermore, the future outlook seems worse due to effects of the global economy, climate change, oil prices, further degradation of the existing system, etc. A transition towards sustainable alternatives is therefore mandatory. In this paper a combination of existing concepts and approaches is used to indentify possible roadblocks and windfalls for such a transition in the Dominican Republic. This combination starts with defining the unit of analysis, after which actors in the socio-technical energy system are charted through literature research and interviews. Next, using social network analysis, regimes and niches are identified to depict the unit of analysis in a more useful manner for managing transitions. The step hereafter consists of creating internal and external scenarios based on critical uncertainties to insure transition management efforts against uncertainty. Moving to Transition Management, robustness analysis is then used to evaluate strategies and policies in all combinations of these internal and external scenarios to get to an optimum set of strategies and policies which are used to form a normative scenario. This will be used to get stakeholders behind the transition effort. The results are a clear overview of the energy system, impediments and opportunities regarding transitions, possible futures, and the validity of strategies and policies in different scenarios for the Dominican Republic.
Daniël Amrish Lachman,
Transitioning the Dominican Republic: Regimes, Niches and Scenarios, American Journal of Energy Engineering.
Vol. 2, No. 1,
2014, pp. 37-50.
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