The Economic Impact of the Regional Instability and the Syrian Civil War on Jordan: An Economic Performance Index Analysis
Journal of World Economic Research
Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages: 105-110
Received: Nov. 21, 2018;
Accepted: Dec. 10, 2018;
Published: Jan. 2, 2019
Views 319 Downloads 83
Wa’ed Alshoubaki, Department of Public Administration, College of Business, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
Michael Harris, Department of Public Administration, College of Public Service, Tennessee State University, Nashville, USA
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has had a long history of civil wars with significant political, social, and economic consequences. The Syrian civil war that began at the time of the Arab Spring in 2011 has affected neighboring countries, and the greater region in many ways. Although some attention has been given to the human catastrophe that the war has inflicted, especially with respect to refugees, little attention has been given to its economic impact on neighboring countries. This research will analyze how the Syrian civil war has affected the economy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. As Syria’s southern neighbor, Jordan’s economy was challenged in significant ways: the country received a substantial number of Syrian refugees, its main trade route was largely eliminated, and it engaged in significant military activity to protect itself from several direct Syrian-related military threats. The research focus was to better understand the burden the neighboring war posed to the Jordanian economy. To address this, the study employed the economic performance index (EPI) to examine Jordan’s overall economic performance before and after war. It assessed the impact of regional instability on Jordan’s trade flow by calculating the annual percentage change in importation and exportation. This study found that the civil war has negatively affected the overall performance of the Jordanian economy and trade. The results indicated that the Jordanian economy performed better before the Syrian civil war. The analysis revealed that the Jordanian economy experienced an increase in the rates of inflation and unemployment, as well as surging governmental deficits and declining investments and gross domestic product (GDP) growth as a result of the civil war in Syria. The macroeconomics analysis reveals the level to which the Jordanian economy has been affected by the civil war and raises valuable lessons for economic policy.
The Economic Impact of the Regional Instability and the Syrian Civil War on Jordan: An Economic Performance Index Analysis, Journal of World Economic Research.
Vol. 7, No. 4,
2018, pp. 105-110.
Murdoch, James C, and Sandler, Todd (2004). Civil wars and economic growth: spatial dispersion. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 138–151.
Alshoubaki, Waed & Harris, Michael (2018). The impact of Syrian refugees on Jordan: A framework for analysis. Journal of International Studies 10 (1), 277-288.
Jordan Central Bank (2018). Jordanian exportation and importation. Retrieved from http://statisticaldb.cbj.gov.jo/index?lang=en
Idris, Iffat (2016). Economic situation in Jordan. Helpdesk report. University of Birmingham. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b97f50ae5274a1391b13967/K4D_HDR_Economic_Situation_in_Jordan.pdf
DE GROOT, OLAF J. (2010). the spillover effects of conflict on economic growth in neighbouring countries in Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 21 (2), pp. 149–164.
DiRienzo, Cassandra Das, Jayoti (2017). The Spillover Effects of Country Fragility in Africa. Developing Countries studies. 7, (1). 62-67.
Sab, Randa (2014). Economic impact of selected conflicts in the Middle East: What can we learn from the past? ”, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/14/100, Washington, D. C., International Monetary Fund.
Ades, Alberto and Chua
Hak B. (1997). Thy Neighbor's Curse: Regional Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 2. (3), pp. 279-304.
Dunne, John Paul and Tian, Nan (2015). Conflict, Economic Growth and Spillover Effects in Africa, ERSA working paper 561.
Johnson, Jaclyn M. and Thyne, Clayton L. (2017). The Aftermaths of Civil Conflicts. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. http://politics.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-514.
Murdoch, James C. and Todd Sandler (2002). Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1, Understanding Civil War, pp. 91-110.
Rother, Björn, Pierre, Gaëlle, Lombardo, David, Herrala, Risto, Toffano, Priscilla, Roos, Erik, Auclair, Greg, and Manasseh, Karina (2016) The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa. IMF discussion note, SDN. 16/08.
Khramov, V. and J. R. Lee (2013), “The economic performance index (epi): an intuitive indicator for assessing a country’s economic performance dynamics in an historical perspective”, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/214, Washington, D. C., International Monetary Fund.
Quaranta, Mario and Martini, Sergio (2016). The Meaning of Democracy to Citizens Across European Countries and the Factors Involved. The International Trade Journal, 27: 197–224, 2013.
Garry, Stefanie and Villarreal, Francisco G. (2016) The use of key indicators to assess Latin America’s long-term economic performance. Cepal Review no. 118.
World Bank (2018). Jordan economic reclassification. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jordan/brief/qa-jordan-country-reclassification.
Phillips, A. W. H. (1958). “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957.” Economica.
Alshoubaki, Wa’ed (2018). A synopsis of the Jordanian governance system in the management of Syrian refugee crisis. Journal of Intercultural Studies 39 (5), 596-60.
MOPIC. (2015a). Jordan response plan for Syrian crisis 2016-2018. Amman, Jordan: The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation.
Odlum, A. (2015). Syrian informal tented settlement in Jordan: Humanitarian gaps and challenges. Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration, 5 (2), 26-31.
Marano, Valentina, Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Chuck C. Y. Kwok (2013) The Impact of Conflict Types and Location on Trade, The International Trade Journal, 27: 3, 197-224, DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2013.796835.