Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran; Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran, Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran

Published in American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 2, Issue 4)

Received: 29 June 2017 Accepted: 27 July 2017 Published: 25 August 2017

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Abstract

The paper is aimed at examining the econometric modeling of passenger demand for international air transport in Nigeria Airports with the objective of examining the relationship between the international passenger demand in Nigeria airports and economic variables. 91.2% of the dependent variable can be well explained by the independent variables and the unexplained variables or the error term is 8.8%. The fact that the coefficient of explanation (R Square) is very high, this is a sign that there is a problem of multicolinearity and the Durbin Watson value (3.443) which is greater than 2 also signifies there is a problem of autocorrelation or serial correlation. The significance level of the computed test statistics is 1.29 which is more than the significance level (0.05), hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no statistical significant relationship between % change in international Passenger Traffic (Annual) and % change in economic indicators (Consumer Inflation Price (CPI), Naira value to Dollar and Gross Domestic Product). It is therefore concluded that the economic indicators cannot give a good forecast of international air transport demand because the model suffers from serial correlation, multicolinearity and insignificance of the test.

Published in	American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 2, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
Page(s)	39-44
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Air Transport, Demand, Trend Analysis, Transportation

References

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[8]	Anne Graham (2003). Managing Airports. Butterworth-Heinemann Publications. ISBN: 0 7506 5917 3.
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[11]	Adeyemi O. (2001). Moving Nigeria Forward: TheDevelopment Planning Approach. Ibadan: Ibadan University Press.
[12]	Afolayan, O. S., Asaju, A. J. & Malik, N. A. (2012). Variation in Spatial Trend of Passengers and Aircrafts Movement in Nigerian International Airports. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 10 (Special Issue) May, 2012. Pp. 126-133.
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[18]	Greene W. (1993). Econometric Analysis. Second edition. Macmillan, New York, p. 791. Greene W. H. (2004). Econometric Analysis. Fourth edition, Prentice Hall International Upper Saddle River, USA.

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APA Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran, Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. (2017). Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2(4), 39-44. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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ACS Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran; Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2017, 2(4), 39-44. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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AMA Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran, Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2017;2(4):39-44. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11,
  author = {Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran and Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran},
  title = {Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {2},
  number = {4},
  pages = {39-44},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  abstract = {The paper is aimed at examining the econometric modeling of passenger demand for international air transport in Nigeria Airports with the objective of examining the relationship between the international passenger demand in Nigeria airports and economic variables. 91.2% of the dependent variable can be well explained by the independent variables and the unexplained variables or the error term is 8.8%. The fact that the coefficient of explanation (R Square) is very high, this is a sign that there is a problem of multicolinearity and the Durbin Watson value (3.443) which is greater than 2 also signifies there is a problem of autocorrelation or serial correlation. The significance level of the computed test statistics is 1.29 which is more than the significance level (0.05), hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no statistical significant relationship between % change in international Passenger Traffic (Annual) and % change in economic indicators (Consumer Inflation Price (CPI), Naira value to Dollar and Gross Domestic Product). It is therefore concluded that the economic indicators cannot give a good forecast of international air transport demand because the model suffers from serial correlation, multicolinearity and insignificance of the test.},
 year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports
AU  - Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran
AU  - Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran
Y1  - 2017/08/25
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 39
EP  - 44
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
AB  - The paper is aimed at examining the econometric modeling of passenger demand for international air transport in Nigeria Airports with the objective of examining the relationship between the international passenger demand in Nigeria airports and economic variables. 91.2% of the dependent variable can be well explained by the independent variables and the unexplained variables or the error term is 8.8%. The fact that the coefficient of explanation (R Square) is very high, this is a sign that there is a problem of multicolinearity and the Durbin Watson value (3.443) which is greater than 2 also signifies there is a problem of autocorrelation or serial correlation. The significance level of the computed test statistics is 1.29 which is more than the significance level (0.05), hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no statistical significant relationship between % change in international Passenger Traffic (Annual) and % change in economic indicators (Consumer Inflation Price (CPI), Naira value to Dollar and Gross Domestic Product). It is therefore concluded that the economic indicators cannot give a good forecast of international air transport demand because the model suffers from serial correlation, multicolinearity and insignificance of the test.
VL  - 2
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran

Department of Transport Management Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran

Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran, Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. (2017). Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2(4), 39-44. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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ACS Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran; Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2017, 2(4), 39-44. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

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AMA Style

Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran, Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran. Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2017;2(4):39-44. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11,
  author = {Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran and Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran},
  title = {Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {2},
  number = {4},
  pages = {39-44},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20170204.11},
  abstract = {The paper is aimed at examining the econometric modeling of passenger demand for international air transport in Nigeria Airports with the objective of examining the relationship between the international passenger demand in Nigeria airports and economic variables. 91.2% of the dependent variable can be well explained by the independent variables and the unexplained variables or the error term is 8.8%. The fact that the coefficient of explanation (R Square) is very high, this is a sign that there is a problem of multicolinearity and the Durbin Watson value (3.443) which is greater than 2 also signifies there is a problem of autocorrelation or serial correlation. The significance level of the computed test statistics is 1.29 which is more than the significance level (0.05), hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no statistical significant relationship between % change in international Passenger Traffic (Annual) and % change in economic indicators (Consumer Inflation Price (CPI), Naira value to Dollar and Gross Domestic Product). It is therefore concluded that the economic indicators cannot give a good forecast of international air transport demand because the model suffers from serial correlation, multicolinearity and insignificance of the test.},
 year = {2017}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Econometric Modeling of Passenger Demand for International Air Transport in Nigeria Airports
AU  - Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran
AU  - Adedayo Ayomide Adeniran
Y1  - 2017/08/25
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 39
EP  - 44
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170204.11
AB  - The paper is aimed at examining the econometric modeling of passenger demand for international air transport in Nigeria Airports with the objective of examining the relationship between the international passenger demand in Nigeria airports and economic variables. 91.2% of the dependent variable can be well explained by the independent variables and the unexplained variables or the error term is 8.8%. The fact that the coefficient of explanation (R Square) is very high, this is a sign that there is a problem of multicolinearity and the Durbin Watson value (3.443) which is greater than 2 also signifies there is a problem of autocorrelation or serial correlation. The significance level of the computed test statistics is 1.29 which is more than the significance level (0.05), hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no statistical significant relationship between % change in international Passenger Traffic (Annual) and % change in economic indicators (Consumer Inflation Price (CPI), Naira value to Dollar and Gross Domestic Product). It is therefore concluded that the economic indicators cannot give a good forecast of international air transport demand because the model suffers from serial correlation, multicolinearity and insignificance of the test.
VL  - 2
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download