Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model
Humanities and Social Sciences
Volume 6, Issue 1, January 2018, Pages: 12-18
Received: Jan. 16, 2018;
Accepted: Jan. 31, 2018;
Published: Mar. 22, 2018
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Wang Ping, School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China
Wang Jing, School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China
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With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.
Population Structure, Population Policy, Leslie Model, Elderly Population Coefficient
To cite this article
Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model, Humanities and Social Sciences.
Vol. 6, No. 1,
2018, pp. 12-18.
Copyright © 2018 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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