Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model
Humanities and Social Sciences
Volume 6, Issue 1, January 2018, Pages: 12-18
Received: Jan. 16, 2018; Accepted: Jan. 31, 2018; Published: Mar. 22, 2018
Views 450      Downloads 22
Wang Ping, School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China
Wang Jing, School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China
Article Tools
Follow on us
With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.
Population Structure, Population Policy, Leslie Model, Elderly Population Coefficient
To cite this article
Wang Ping, Wang Jing, Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model, Humanities and Social Sciences. Vol. 6, No. 1, 2018, pp. 12-18. doi: 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
Copyright © 2018 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License ( which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Wang Yanan, Zhong Funing. Changes in Birth Rate of China Population and Prediction since 1990 [J/OL]. Population and Economy [2017-12-27]. F.20170306.1051.002.html.
Meng Lingguo, Li Chaoling, Hu Guang. Prediction of China's Population Structure Based on PDE Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24 (02): 132-141.
Jiang Yu, Quan Mengzhen. China's population structure, pension insurance and household consumption [J]. Economic Survey, 2018 (01): 1-12 [2017-12-27]. https: // /j.cnki.1006-1096.20171129.018.
Han Xiaoqing. Leslie model of China's future population strategy simulation [D]. Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2012.
Song Jian, Ding Jun, Wang Fuyuan. Effects of the Comprehensive Two-child Policy on Spatial Structure of Population and Regional Population in China [J]. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35 (11): 1305-1316.
Ren Qiang, Huang Jiting. Prediction and Analysis of China's Population Development Based on Leslie Model [J]. Journal of Mathematics, 2010, 40 (23): 101-106.
Meng Lingguo. A Review on Leslie Model [D]. Northeast Normal University, 2009.
Zhang Yanhua, Xu Yikai, Li Zhuoming. Study on the Impacts of "All-Round Two-Tire" Policy Based on Error Correction Model and Leslie Model [J]. Human Resource Management, 2017 (06): 304-307.
Yu Tingting, Song Yuxiang, Hou Feilong, Li Qiuyu. Study on the Population Structure Factors of Economic Growth in Northeast China [J]. Economic Geography: 1-9 [2017-12-27]. http: // /detail/43.1126. K.20161019.0838.004.html.
Shi Benye. China's demographic changes in the impact of economic restructuring [J]. Journal of Demography, 2016, 38 (04): 17-24.
Liu Ye, Wu Sheng, Wu Xingjiao, Zhou Haihe, Liu Yingli, Zhang Jing. Analysis of the Influence of the Comprehensive Two-child Policy on the Population Structure Based on Leslie Model [J], Software, 2017, 38 (08): 145-150.
Guo Shenshen. Study on the Influence of Population Structure Change in Henan Province on Economic Development [D]. Henan University, 2015.
Lin Hongkang, Xie Xiangdong. Qualitative Analysis of a Class of Leslie Models [J]. Mathematical Research, 1997 (03): 308-311.
Wang Haoming. Empirical Study on the Adjustment of China's Population Total Fertility, Demographic Dividend and Reproductive Policy [D]. Liaoning University, 2016.
Wang Shenbo, Shen Ronghao. The Application of Improved Leslie Model in Larger Cities with Floating Population-A Case Study of Shenzhen [J]. Management Observation, 2013 (23): 89-90 (in Chinese).
Science Publishing Group
NEW YORK, NY 10018
Tel: (001)347-688-8931