The Evaluation of Regional Instability to Climate Change Based on the PSA Model—A Case Study of Philippines
American Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 3, May 2018, Pages: 99-108
Received: Jun. 27, 2018;
Published: Jun. 27, 2018
Views 1013 Downloads 116
Hui Liao, School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Kunling Han, School of Mathematics and System Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Shuo Sun, School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Yajing Jin, School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Follow on us
In recent years, the ever-changing climate has caused natural disasters in various countries to occur frequently. Climate change has become one of the factors that have caused this country to be vulnerable. This article mainly quantitatively studies how climate change affects regional instability. A comprehensive indicator evaluation method is used to establish a PSA model. The country's vulnerability is defined in terms of the dimensions of pressure, sensitivity, and adaptive capability. This article selected Philippines as the research object, and based on the data processing by PSA model, we obtained the Fragile State Index (FSI) of Philippines in the past ten years. It has found that the flooding in 2012 has made it more vulnerable to Philippines and the results of the analysis are in line with the actual situation. Then, the K-means clustering algorithm is used to get a tipping point (0.5) that can define whether it is fragile or not. What's more, the critical point is verified to be reasonable. Finally, under the guidance of the data of the three dimensions and first-class indicators, the intervention measures that the country should take to address climate change are proposed to reduce regional instability.
Climate Change, Regional Instability, Fragile State Index, PSA Model
To cite this article
The Evaluation of Regional Instability to Climate Change Based on the PSA Model—A Case Study of Philippines, American Journal of Civil Engineering.
Vol. 6, No. 3,
2018, pp. 99-108.
Füesel H M. Vulnerability:ageneraly applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17 (2):155-167.
Moss R H, Brenkert A L, Malone E L. Vulnerability to cli- mate change: A quantitative approach [J]. Advances in Sci- ence and Research, 2001 (1): 1-88.
Klein R J T, Nichols R J. Asesment of coastal vulnerability to climate change [J]. Ambio, 1999, 28 (2):182-187.
Tan Shuhao, Tan Wenlie, Li Qingting, Li Tingyu, Zhu Yong, Zhang Qiaoyun, Liu Bo. Analysis of herdsmen's social vulnerability under the pressure of climate change——Based on the investigation of 4 animal husbandry flags in Xilinguole League of Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Countryside Economy. 2016 (07).
Xu Tingting, Xu Changle, Liu Yang. Research on the Evaluation of Social and Economic Vulnerability of Shanghai under the Background of Global Climate Change——Based on PSR Model[J]. Resource Development and Market. 2015 (03).
Feng Chunyan. Study on Social Vulnerability of Drought Disaster in Shandong Province[D]. Qufu Normal University. 2017.
Qiao Mengmeng. Study on Water Resources Vulnerability in Suzhou City[D]. Suzhou University of Science and Technology. 2017.
Niemeijer, D. Developing Indicators for Environmental Policy: Data-driven and Theory-driven Approaches Examined by Example[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 5 (2): 91-103, 2002.
IPCC. Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [M]. Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Chen Ping, Chen Xiaoling. A Review of the Research on the Vulnerability of Human-environment Coupling System under Global Environmental Change [J]. Progress in Geography. 2010 (04).
Mccarthy, J. J.; Canziani, O. F.; Leary, N. A.; Dokken, D. J. and White, K. S. (eds.). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang [M]. Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Sun Pingjun, Xiu Chunliang. Study on the vulnerability of mining cities' economic development based on PSE model [J]. Geographical Research. 2011 (02).
Wang Yue, Tian Shen, Zhao Qiping, Li Xudong. Research Progress on Adaptability of High-Temperature Heat Wave Weather Based on Vulnerability [J]. Journal of Environment and Health. 2017 (03).