A Logistic Model Predicting Occurrence Probability of Debris Flow
American Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 1, January 2019, Pages: 21-26
Received: Jan. 17, 2019; Published: Apr. 28, 2019
Views 589      Downloads 140
J. P. Wang, Civil Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, Republic of China
Yijie Wu, Civil Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, Republic of China
Article Tools
Follow on us
This paper presents a logistic model for predicting the occurrence probability of debris flows based on rainfall intensity and duration. The data from a total of 354 rainfall events were used to calibrate the model, among which 249 were triggering a debris flow while 105 were not. The model will be useful to the decision making of debris flow early warning in the future. That is, given the estimated occurrence probability = 70% subject to a combination of rainfall intensity and duration, there is a 30% probability that the early warning will be a false alarm. By contrast, if decision makers decide not to issue an early warning, then there is a 70% chance leading to a missed alarm. Subsequently, integrating the consequences of missed alarm and false alarm into the equation, the respective risks can be computed, based on which decision makers can make a more robust decision whether an early warning is needed or not by choosing the scenario with a lower risk.
Debris Flow, Logistic Regression, Occurrence Probability
To cite this article
J. P. Wang, Yijie Wu, A Logistic Model Predicting Occurrence Probability of Debris Flow, American Journal of Civil Engineering. Vol. 7, No. 1, 2019, pp. 21-26. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20190701.14
Guo XJ, Cui P, Li Y, Ge Y, Mahoney WB (2016) Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake affected area, China. Geomorphology 253: 208–216.
Wu MH, Wang JP, Chen IC (2018) Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment pp 1–7.
Tang H, Liu Y, He SM, Chen Z, Wang DP (2018) Measuring and estimating the impact pressure of debris flows on bridge piers based on large-scale laboratory experiments. Landslides July 2018, Volume 15, Issue 7, pp 1331–1345.
Lai SY, Chang WJ, Lin PS (2006) Logistic Regression Model for Evaluating Soil Liquefaction Probability Using CPT Data Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering Volume 132 Issue 6, Pages 694-704.
Chang KT, Chiang SH, Hsu ML (2007) Modeling typhoon- and earthquake-induced landslides in a mountainous watershed using logistic regression. Geomorphology Volume 89, Issues 3–4, Pages 335-347.
Dahal R, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100:429–443.
Gabet E, Burbank D, Putkonen J, Pratt-Sitaula B, Ojha T (2004) Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal. Geomorphology 63:131–143.
Guo XJ, Cui P, Li Y (2013) Debris flow warning threshold based on antecedent rainfall: a case study in Jiangjia Ravine, Yunnan, China. J. Mt. Sci. 10(2):305–314.
Aleotti P (2004) A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng. Geol. 73:247–265.
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark C (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorog. Atmos. Phys. 98:239–2125.
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark C (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5:3–17.
Hong Y, Hiura H, Shino K, Sassa K, Suemine A, Fukuoka H, Wang G (2005) The influence of intense rainfall on the activity of large-scale crystalline schist landslides in Shikoku Island, Japan. Landslides 2:97–105.
Iverson RM (1997) The physics of debris flows. Rev Geophys 35(3): 245–296.
Jibson R (1989) Debris flow in southern Puerto Rico. Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 236:29–55.
Larsen M, Simon A (1993) A rainfall intensity-duration threshold for landslides in a humid-tropical environment, Puerto Rico. Geografiska Ann. Series A, Phys. Geography 75:13–23.
Mileti SM, Peek L (2000) The social psychology of public response to warnings of a nuclear power plant accident. Journal of Hazardous Materials 75: 181–194.
Saito S, Daichi N, Hiroshi M (2010) Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity–duration thresholds in Japan. Geomorphology 118:1125–1175.
Tang C, Van AT, Chang M, Chen GQ, Zhao XH, Huang XC (2012) Catastrophic debris flows on 13 August 2010 in the Qingping area, southwestern China: The combined effects of a strong earthquake and subsequent rainstorms. Geomorphology 139-140:559–576.
Tang XS, Wang JP, Yang W, Li DQ (2018) Joint probability modeling for two debris-flow variables: copula approach. Natural Hazards Review ASCE 19(2): 05018004.
Wang JP, Wu YM, Lin TL, Brant L (2012) The uncertainties of a Pd3-PGV onsite earthquake early warning system. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 36: 32–37.
Xu Y, Wang JP, Wu YM, Kuochen H (2017) Reliability assessment on earthquake early warning: A case study from Taiwan. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 92: 397–407.
Zhou W, Tang C (2013) Rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation in the Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken area, southwestern China. Landslides 11(5): 877–887.
van Asch, T. W. J., Tang, C., Alkema, D., Zhu, J., Zhou, W., (2014). An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows. Nat. Hazards 70 (1), 299–311.
Brunetti, M. T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Luciani, S., Valigi, D., Guzzetti, F., (2010). Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 447–458.
Chen, Y., Booth, D. C., (2011). The Wenchuan Earthquake of 2008. Science Press, Beijing.
Chen, X. C., You, Y., Liu, J. F., Chen, H., (2011). Characteristics and discrimination of debris flows following Wenchuan Earthquake in Qianfoshan scenic spot of Anxian County, Sichuan Province, China. Sci. Geogr. Sin. 31 (12), 1500–1505 (in Chinese).
Cui, P., (1992). Studies on condition and mechanism of debris flow initiation by means of experiment. Chin. Sci. Bull. 37 (9), 759–763.
Cui, P., Zhu, Y. Y., Chen, J., Han, Y. S., Liu, H. J., 2007. Relationships between antecedent rainfall and debris flows in jiangjia ravine, China. In: Chen, C. L., Major, J. J. (Eds.), DebrisFlow Hazard Mitigation-Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment. Millpress, Rotterdam, pp. 1–10.
Cui, P., Zou, Q., Xiang, L. Z., Zeng, C., 2013. Risk assessment of simultaneous debris flows in mountain townships. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 37 (4), 516–542.
Dai, F. C., Xu, C., Yao, X., Xu, L., Tu, X. B., Gong, Q. M., 2011. Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China. J. Asian Earth Sci. 40, 883–895.
Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geografiska Annaler: Series A Phys. Geogr. 62:23–27.
Cannon S, Gartner J, Wilson R, Bowers J, Laber J (2008) Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California. Geomorphology 96:250–269.
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186