Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model
International Journal of Agricultural Economics
Volume 4, Issue 3, May 2019, Pages: 101-108
Received: Feb. 10, 2019; Accepted: Mar. 13, 2019; Published: Jun. 5, 2019
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Authors
Debasis Mithiya, Department of Business Administration, International School of Hospitality Management, Kolkata, India
Kumarjit Mandal, Department of Economics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
Lakshmikanta Datta, Department of Statistics, International Institute of Management Sciences, Kolkata, India
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Abstract
Potato is one of the most important food crops in India. Potato is also one of the principal cash crop, it gives handsome returns to the farmers. West Bengal is a state in India where potato is one of the major agricultural crops. But potato markets are more volatile due to fluctuation in production rather than Stable. So price of potato is fluctuating in nature. Thus, the time series analysis and price forecast may help producers in acreage allocation and timing of sale of potato. The present study was conducted to know the statistical investigation of price behaviour of potato in Hooghly district of West Bengal. In the present study, Box-Jenkins Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling is deployed in forecasting of monthly average price of potato in Hooghly of West Bengal up to October 2020 based on data from November 2008 to October 2018 (a period of 120 months). Seasonal indices calculated showed that generally the price is low from January to April and it starts picking up from May and reaches the maximum in November. The best model has been selected based on the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and highest R-Square. The estimated best SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(4,1,0)12. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and BIC for Hooghly district are 184.10, 19.08, 118.98 and 10.69 respectively. Short term forecasts based on this model are close to the observed values and the behaviour of forecasted price of potato truly reflected the actual price as well as market tendency.
Keywords
Box-Jenkins, Forecasting, Monthly Average Price, Price Behavior, SARIMA Model, Seasonality
To cite this article
Debasis Mithiya, Kumarjit Mandal, Lakshmikanta Datta, Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model, International Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2019, pp. 101-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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