International Journal of Agricultural Economics

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Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model

Received: 10 February 2019    Accepted: 13 March 2019    Published: 05 June 2019
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Abstract

Potato is one of the most important food crops in India. Potato is also one of the principal cash crop, it gives handsome returns to the farmers. West Bengal is a state in India where potato is one of the major agricultural crops. But potato markets are more volatile due to fluctuation in production rather than Stable. So price of potato is fluctuating in nature. Thus, the time series analysis and price forecast may help producers in acreage allocation and timing of sale of potato. The present study was conducted to know the statistical investigation of price behaviour of potato in Hooghly district of West Bengal. In the present study, Box-Jenkins Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling is deployed in forecasting of monthly average price of potato in Hooghly of West Bengal up to October 2020 based on data from November 2008 to October 2018 (a period of 120 months). Seasonal indices calculated showed that generally the price is low from January to April and it starts picking up from May and reaches the maximum in November. The best model has been selected based on the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and highest R-Square. The estimated best SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(4,1,0)12. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and BIC for Hooghly district are 184.10, 19.08, 118.98 and 10.69 respectively. Short term forecasts based on this model are close to the observed values and the behaviour of forecasted price of potato truly reflected the actual price as well as market tendency.

DOI 10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13
Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 4, Issue 3, May 2019)
Page(s) 101-108
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Box-Jenkins, Forecasting, Monthly Average Price, Price Behavior, SARIMA Model, Seasonality

References
[1] U. Singh, C. S. Praharaj, S. S. Singh and N. P. Singh, Biofortification of Food Crops, Ummed Singh, CS Praharaj, SS Singh, NP Singh Edited; Spinger; 2016.
[2] H. Ghosh and Prajneshu, “Non-linear time series modelling of volatile onion price data using AR (p)-ARCH (q)-in- mean”, Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin, 54, 231-47, 2003.
[3] T. L. Mohankumar, H. B. Mallikarjuna, N. M. Singh, C. S. Satish Gowda, “Comparative study of univariate time series technique for forecasting of onion price”, International Journal of Commerce and Business Management, 4 (2), 304-308, 2011.
[4] Hemant Sharma and S. S. “Burark, Bajra Price Forecasting in Chomu Market of Jaipur District: An Application of SARIMA Model”, Agricultural Situation in India, 61 (11), 2015.
[5] K. P. Chandran and N. K. Pandey, “Potato price forecasting using seasonal ARIMA approach”, Potato Journal, 34 (1-2), 137-138, 2007.
[6] D. S. Dhakre and D. Bhattacharya, “Price Behaviour of Potato in Agra Market A Statistical Analysis”, Indian Research Journal Extension Education, 14 (2), 2014.
[7] Agricultural Marketing Information Network-Agmarknet, http://agmarknet.gov.in, downloaded on 29.11.2018.
[8] G. E. P. Box, and G. M. Jenkins, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco. 1976,
[9] M. O. Nasiru and S. O, “Olanrewaju Forecasting Airline Fatalities in the World Using a Univariate Time Series Model”, International Journal of Statistics and Applications, 5 (5), 223-230, 2015.
[10] S. C. Hillmer and G. C. Tiao, “An ARIMA model based Approach to Seasonal Adjustment”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72 (377), 1982.
[11] A. C. Akpanta, I. E. Okorie, N. N. Okoye, “SARIMA Modelling of the Frequency of Monthly Rainfall in Umuahia Abia State of Nigeria”, American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 5 (2), 82-87, 2015.
[12] H. Gangadharappa, “Statistical study of variation in arrivals and prices of potato in the selected markets of Karnataka”. M. Sc. (Ag.) Thesis, University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, India, 2005.
Author Information
  • Department of Business Administration, International School of Hospitality Management, Kolkata, India

  • Department of Economics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India

  • Department of Statistics, International Institute of Management Sciences, Kolkata, India

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  • APA Style

    Debasis Mithiya, Kumarjit Mandal, Lakshmikanta Datta. (2019). Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 4(3), 101-108. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13

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    ACS Style

    Debasis Mithiya; Kumarjit Mandal; Lakshmikanta Datta. Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2019, 4(3), 101-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13

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    AMA Style

    Debasis Mithiya, Kumarjit Mandal, Lakshmikanta Datta. Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model. Int J Agric Econ. 2019;4(3):101-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13,
      author = {Debasis Mithiya and Kumarjit Mandal and Lakshmikanta Datta},
      title = {Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model},
      journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {3},
      pages = {101-108},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20190403.13},
      abstract = {Potato is one of the most important food crops in India. Potato is also one of the principal cash crop, it gives handsome returns to the farmers. West Bengal is a state in India where potato is one of the major agricultural crops. But potato markets are more volatile due to fluctuation in production rather than Stable. So price of potato is fluctuating in nature. Thus, the time series analysis and price forecast may help producers in acreage allocation and timing of sale of potato. The present study was conducted to know the statistical investigation of price behaviour of potato in Hooghly district of West Bengal. In the present study, Box-Jenkins Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling is deployed in forecasting of monthly average price of potato in Hooghly of West Bengal up to October 2020 based on data from November 2008 to October 2018 (a period of 120 months). Seasonal indices calculated showed that generally the price is low from January to April and it starts picking up from May and reaches the maximum in November. The best model has been selected based on the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and highest R-Square. The estimated best SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(4,1,0)12. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and BIC for Hooghly district are 184.10, 19.08, 118.98 and 10.69 respectively. Short term forecasts based on this model are close to the observed values and the behaviour of forecasted price of potato truly reflected the actual price as well as market tendency.},
     year = {2019}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Forecasting of Potato Prices of Hooghly in West Bengal: Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Model
    AU  - Debasis Mithiya
    AU  - Kumarjit Mandal
    AU  - Lakshmikanta Datta
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13
    T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    SP  - 101
    EP  - 108
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-3843
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20190403.13
    AB  - Potato is one of the most important food crops in India. Potato is also one of the principal cash crop, it gives handsome returns to the farmers. West Bengal is a state in India where potato is one of the major agricultural crops. But potato markets are more volatile due to fluctuation in production rather than Stable. So price of potato is fluctuating in nature. Thus, the time series analysis and price forecast may help producers in acreage allocation and timing of sale of potato. The present study was conducted to know the statistical investigation of price behaviour of potato in Hooghly district of West Bengal. In the present study, Box-Jenkins Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling is deployed in forecasting of monthly average price of potato in Hooghly of West Bengal up to October 2020 based on data from November 2008 to October 2018 (a period of 120 months). Seasonal indices calculated showed that generally the price is low from January to April and it starts picking up from May and reaches the maximum in November. The best model has been selected based on the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and highest R-Square. The estimated best SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(4,1,0)12. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and BIC for Hooghly district are 184.10, 19.08, 118.98 and 10.69 respectively. Short term forecasts based on this model are close to the observed values and the behaviour of forecasted price of potato truly reflected the actual price as well as market tendency.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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