Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China
Science Journal of Public Health
Volume 2, Issue 3, May 2014, Pages: 177-181
Accepted: Apr. 10, 2014; Published: Apr. 30, 2014
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Authors
Teppei Hirata, Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yoshiki Kinjyo, Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yayumi Nishihira, Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yoshihito Yonahara, Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Takeshi Miyagi, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Tsutomu Omatsu, Research and Education Center for Prevention of Global Infectious Disease of Animals, Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Japan
Yasushi Shiroma, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Tetsuya Mizutani, Research and Education Center for Prevention of Global Infectious Disease of Animals, Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Japan
Yasunori Nagata, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Shiro tamaki, Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
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Abstract
In this study, it has been carried out that estimation of mathematical models of SFTSV (severe febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome virus) transmission between sheep in Shandong, China. Data used in the system identification is obtained by observing the cohort group of sheep in Shandong Province, China by Chinese scientists. Observation of the cohort was carried out approximately every week, and it was measured that the number of SFTSV antibody positive animals. As a mathematical model, endemic SIR model was selected. System identification is performed using the solver function of the spreadsheet. The software and solver were Microsoft Excel2010 and GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) nonlinear method. After complemented of observed values with polynomial curve, logistic curve and the Gompertz curves, the system identification was conducted and initial values of parameters and initial value of variable were estimated. As the result of system identification, the value of basic reproduction indicating virus transmission was estimated as the value of 34-45. This system identification is included many estimation. However the result suggested that this disease has strong infectious force.
Keywords
SFTS, Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome, Sheep, Infectious Disease, Sir Model, Endemic Sir Model, Mathematical Model of Infectious Disease
To cite this article
Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, Tsutomu Omatsu, Yasushi Shiroma, Tetsuya Mizutani, Yasunori Nagata, Shiro tamaki, Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China, Science Journal of Public Health. Vol. 2, No. 3, 2014, pp. 177-181. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16
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