Science Journal of Public Health

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A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China

Received: 03 June 2015    Accepted: 11 June 2015    Published: 29 June 2015
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Abstract

Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.

DOI 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
Published in Science Journal of Public Health (Volume 3, Issue 5, September 2015)
Page(s) 612-617
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Spermophilus dauricus Focus, Exponential Smoothing Method, Best Regression Subsets Method, Risk Classification

References
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Author Information
  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Laboratory of Mathematics and Complex Systems, Ministry of Education, School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Laboratory of Mathematics and Complex Systems, Ministry of Education, School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

  • Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China

Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Xiaolei Zhou, Boyu Zhang, Xianbin Cong, Xiaoheng Yao, Cheng Ju, et al. (2015). A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Science Journal of Public Health, 3(5), 612-617. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13

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    ACS Style

    Xiaolei Zhou; Boyu Zhang; Xianbin Cong; Xiaoheng Yao; Cheng Ju, et al. A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Sci. J. Public Health 2015, 3(5), 612-617. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13

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    AMA Style

    Xiaolei Zhou, Boyu Zhang, Xianbin Cong, Xiaoheng Yao, Cheng Ju, et al. A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Sci J Public Health. 2015;3(5):612-617. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13,
      author = {Xiaolei Zhou and Boyu Zhang and Xianbin Cong and Xiaoheng Yao and Cheng Ju and Zhonglai Li and Cheng Xu and Tianyi Duan and Guijun Zhang and Lei Chen and Zhencai Liu},
      title = {A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China},
      journal = {Science Journal of Public Health},
      volume = {3},
      number = {5},
      pages = {612-617},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjph.20150305.13},
      abstract = {Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.},
     year = {2015}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China
    AU  - Xiaolei Zhou
    AU  - Boyu Zhang
    AU  - Xianbin Cong
    AU  - Xiaoheng Yao
    AU  - Cheng Ju
    AU  - Zhonglai Li
    AU  - Cheng Xu
    AU  - Tianyi Duan
    AU  - Guijun Zhang
    AU  - Lei Chen
    AU  - Zhencai Liu
    Y1  - 2015/06/29
    PY  - 2015
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
    T2  - Science Journal of Public Health
    JF  - Science Journal of Public Health
    JO  - Science Journal of Public Health
    SP  - 612
    EP  - 617
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-7950
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
    AB  - Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.
    VL  - 3
    IS  - 5
    ER  - 

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