Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2019, Pages: 56-61
Received: Sep. 10, 2019;
Accepted: Dec. 2, 2019;
Published: Dec. 7, 2019
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Yong Liu, Qilu University of Technology, Jinan, China; Shandong Academy of Sciences, Jinan, China; Institute of Science and Technology for Development of Shandong, Jinan, China; Information Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Sciences, Jinan, China
Previous studies indicated that the population size would arrive at its “upper limits” under the intense water scarcity in Urumqi; yet the “upper limits” had been repeatedly exceeded. Two latest research paper put forward a new term “generalized water”, and estimated it under the framework of a noncompetitive input-output model. It was proved that generalized water made a main contribution to alleviate acute water scarcity in the past 40 years in the arid city, and answered the question why an urban population continues to grow under intensifying water scarcity. Another question is whether and how generalized water contributes to the continual development in the future in this city. This paper applied coefficients deduced from the noncompetitive input-output model, and set up a multi-objective linear programming model to investigate the question. Simulation results indicated that the upper limit of gross domestic products of Urumqi would be at most 1.3 times that in 2012; however, this “upper limit” was far more exceeded in 2018, about 1.7 times that in 2012. This phenomenon indicates that generalized water also made a main contribution to continual development, and this contribution mainly comes from external virtual water embodied in commodities. This contribution from generalized water results from the characteristic of dissipative structure in an urban economy, and it is suggested that polices should be designed to make the most use of generalized water.
External Virtual Water Contributes Greatly to Continual Development in Urumqi, Hydrology.
Vol. 7, No. 4,
2019, pp. 56-61.
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