One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine

Pavlo Ivanchuk; Maria Ivanchuk

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

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One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine

Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk

Received: 22 November 2017 Accepted: 4 December 2017 Published: 3 January 2018

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Abstract

Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.

DOI	10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
Published in	Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research (Volume 1, Issue 4, October 2017)
Page(s)	113-116
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Coronary Heart Disease, Prediction, Epidemiology, Markov Chain, Monte Carlo Methods

References

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[2]	Beck J. R., Pauker S. G. The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis// Med Decis Making. Vol. 3, 1983, No. 4, pp. 419-434
[3]	Sonnenberg F. A., Beck J. R. Markov Models in Medical Decision Making: A Practical Guide// Med Decis Making. Vol. 13, 1993, pp. 322-338
[4]	Schaefer A. J., Bailey M. D., Shechter S. M., Roberts M. S. Modeling Medical Treatment Using Markov Decision Processes// Operations Research And Health Care, 2005, pp. 598-616
[5]	Sato R. C., Zouain D. M. Markov Models in health care // Einstein, 2010, No 8, pp. 376-379
[6]	Hazen G. Cohort Decomposition for Markov Cost-Effectiveness Models // Medical Decision Making, 2011, Vol. 31, Iss. 1
[7]	Chikina N. A., Antonova I. V. Risk prognosis in medical insurance system of professional pathology // Herald of the National Technical University "KhPI". Subject issue: Information Science and Modelling, 2013, No 39 (1012), pp. 199–205
[8]	Gandzyuk V. A. An analysis of the incidence of coronary heart disease in Ukraine // Ukrainian Cardiology Journal. 2014, No. 3, pp. 45-52
[9]	Database of the population of Ukraine. Mortality rates by sex and age groups
[10]	Sokolov M. Yu. Register of percutaneous interventions // Heart and blood vessels, 2014, No. 3, pp. 10—23
[11]	Terenda N. O. Main tendencies and predictive estimations of general and primary incidence of coronary heart disease in Ukraine // Bulletin of social hygiene and health protection organizations of Ukraine, 2016, No. 3 (69), pp. 31-35

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APA Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. (2018). One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research, 1(4), 113-116. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

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ACS Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk; Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol. Cardiovasc. Res. 2018, 1(4), 113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

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AMA Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol Cardiovasc Res. 2018;1(4):113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13,
  author = {Pavlo Ivanchuk and Maria Ivanchuk},
  title = {One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine},
  journal = {Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research},
  volume = {1},
  number = {4},
  pages = {113-116},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ccr.20170104.13},
  abstract = {Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine
AU  - Pavlo Ivanchuk
AU  - Maria Ivanchuk
Y1  - 2018/01/03
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
T2  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
JF  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
JO  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
SP  - 113
EP  - 116
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8914
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
AB  - Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.
VL  - 1
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Pavlo Ivanchuk

Internal Medicine, Physical Rehabilitation, Sports Medicine and Physical Training Department, Higher State Educational Establishment of Ukraine “Bucovinian State Medical University”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine
Maria Ivanchuk

Biological Physics and Medical Informatics Department, Higher State Educational Establishment of Ukraine “Bucovinian State Medical University”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

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APA Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. (2018). One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research, 1(4), 113-116. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

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ACS Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk; Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol. Cardiovasc. Res. 2018, 1(4), 113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol Cardiovasc Res. 2018;1(4):113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13,
  author = {Pavlo Ivanchuk and Maria Ivanchuk},
  title = {One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine},
  journal = {Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research},
  volume = {1},
  number = {4},
  pages = {113-116},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ccr.20170104.13},
  abstract = {Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine
AU  - Pavlo Ivanchuk
AU  - Maria Ivanchuk
Y1  - 2018/01/03
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
T2  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
JF  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
JO  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
SP  - 113
EP  - 116
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8914
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
AB  - Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.
VL  - 1
IS  - 4
ER  -

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