American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
Volume 7, Issue 1, March 2019, Pages: 10-17
Received: Jun. 19, 2019;
Accepted: Jul. 12, 2019;
Published: Jul. 26, 2019
Views 154 Downloads 82
Kim Kwee Ng, Department of Physics and Astronomy, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York, USA
The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.
Kim Kwee Ng,
Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal, American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
Vol. 7, No. 1,
2019, pp. 10-17.
Kappenman, J. G., L. J. Zanetti, and W. A. Radasky, Geomagnetic storm forecasts and the power industry. Eos Trans. AGU 78, 37 (1997).
Shepherd Simon J., Zharkov Sergei I., Zharkova Valentina V. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23. ApJ. 795, 46 (2014).
Gkana, A., Zachilas, L. Re-evaluation of predictive models in light of new data: Sunspot number version 2.0. Solar Phys. 291, 2457 (2016).
Pesnell, W. D. Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are we doing? Space Weather 14 (1), 10-21 (2016).
Javaraiah J. Long-term variations in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity and solar cycle prediction, III: Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 25. New Astron. 34, 54-64 (2015).
Miao Juan, Gong J., Li Z., Ren T. The prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25. Scientia Sinica Physica, Mechanica & Astronomica, 45, 099601 (2015).
Helal, H. R., Galal, A. An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25. J. Adv. Res. 4 (3), 275-278, (2013).
Yoshida, A., Difference between even- and odd-numbered cycles in the predictability of solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25. Ann. Geophys. 32, 1035-1042, (2014).
Lampropoulos G., Mavromichalaki H., Tritakis V. Possible Estimation of the Solar Cycle Characteristic Parameters by the 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux. Solar Phys. 291 989-1002 (2016).
Pesnell, W. D. and Schatten K. H. An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Solar Phys. 293, 112 (2018).
Pesnell, W. D. Predicting solar cycle 24 using a geomagnetic precursor pair. Solar Phys. 289, 2317-2331 (2014).
Bhatt, Nipa J., Jain, Rajmal and Aggarwal, M. Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24. Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy 30, 71 (2009).
Du Z. L. The correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity. Ann. Geophys. 29, 1005- 1018, (2011).
Ng, K. K. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles. Scientific Reports 6, 21028 (2016).
Ohl A. I. Wolf’s number prediction for the maximum of the cycle 20. Soln. Dannye. 12, 84 (1966).
Thompson, R. J. A technique for predicting the amplitude of the solar cycle. Solar Physics. 148, 383-388 (1993).
Feynman, J. Geomagnetic and solar wind cycles, 1900-1975. J. Geophys. Res. 87, 6153-6162 (1982).
Lockwood M., Stamper R., and Wild M. N., A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years. Nature 399, 437-439 (1999).
Winter L. M., Balasubramaniam K. S. Estimate of solar maximum using the 1–8 ˚A geostationary operational environmental satellites x-ray measurements. ApJ. L., 793, L45, (2014).
Babcock, H. D., The Sun's polar magnetic field. ApJ, 130, 364, (1959).
Deutsch, A. J. The electromagnetic field of an idealized star in rigid rotation in vacuo. Annales D'Astrophysique. 18, 1 (1955).
Melatos A. Radiative precession of an isolated neutron star. MNRAS. 313, 217 (2000).
Zanazzi, J. J. & Lai D. Electromagnetic torques, precession and evolution of magnetic inclination of pulsars. MNRAS. 451, 1, 695-704 (2015).
Good, M. L. & Ng, K. K. Electromagnetic torques, secular alignment, and spin-down of neutron stars. ApJ. 299, 706 (1985).
Livingstone, M. A., Kaspi, V. M., Gavriil, F. P., Manchester, R. N., Gotthelf, E. V., Kuiper, L., New Phase-coherent Measurements of Pulsar Braking Indices, Astrophysics and Space Science 308, 1-4, (2007).
Ng, K. K. Relativistic correction to the movement of magnetic poles. ApJ. 714, 675-679 (2010).
Smith et al. The Sun and heliosphere at solar maximum. Science. 302, 1165 (2003).
Hoeksema, J. T. The large scale structure of the heliospheric current sheet during the ULYSSES epoch. Space Sci. Reviews 72, 137-148 (1995).
Svalgaard, L., Duvall, T. L. Jr., Scherrer, P. H. The strength of the Sun's polar fields. Solar Physics 58, Issue 2, 225-239 (1978).