Field Effects of Consciousness and Reduction in U.S. Urban Murder Rates: Evaluation of a Prospective Quasi-Experiment
Journal of Health and Environmental Research
Volume 3, Issue 3-1, May 2017, Pages: 32-43
Received: Feb. 14, 2017; Accepted: Feb. 22, 2017; Published: Mar. 20, 2017
Views 1466      Downloads 101
Authors
Kenneth L. Cavanaugh, Institute of Science, Technology, and Public Policy, Maharishi University of Management, Fairfield, Iowa, USA
Michael C. Dillbeck, Institute of Science, Technology, and Public Policy, Maharishi University of Management, Fairfield, Iowa, USA
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
Creation of a sustainable society ideally should include promotion of an enhanced overall quality of life, including freedom from crime, violence, and other key indicators of social stress. This study is part of a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the results of a prospective four-year quasi-experiment that sought to reduce rates of homicide and violent crime as well as to improve other measures of the quality of life and public health in the United States. The current research tests the hypothesis that group practice of the Transcendental Meditation® (TM) and TM-Sidhi® program by a group of theoretically predicted size would be sufficient to reduce collective stress in the larger population, as reflected in decreased rates of homicide in a sample of 206 large U.S. urban areas. Time series regression analysis of monthly data for 2002–2010 using a broken-trend intervention model found significant reductions in trend for the urban homicide rate during the 2007–2010 intervention period (p = 1 x 10–13). Controlling for pre-intervention trends, seasonality, and autocorrelation, the estimated total reduction in homicide rate was 28.4% (7.1% annually). The practical significance of these findings is also indicated by an estimated 4,136 murders averted by the reduced trend in murder rate during the intervention. Diagnostic tests are satisfactory and indicate that the results are unlikely due to “spurious regression.” The mechanism for these macro-social effects is discussed in the light of possible alternative hypotheses.
Keywords
Quality of Life, Crime Prevention, Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi Program, Urban Murder Statistics, Intervention Analysis, Quasi-Experiment
To cite this article
Kenneth L. Cavanaugh, Michael C. Dillbeck, Field Effects of Consciousness and Reduction in U.S. Urban Murder Rates: Evaluation of a Prospective Quasi-Experiment, Journal of Health and Environmental Research. Special Issue:Maharishi Vedic Science: Creating a Sustainable Future. Vol. 3, No. 3-1, 2017, pp. 32-43. doi: 10.11648/j.jher.s.2017030301.13
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
References
[1]
Aaltonen, M., MacDonald, J. M., Martikainen, P., and Kivivuori, J. (2013). Examining the generality of the unemployment-crime association. Criminology, 51, 561–594. doi: 10.1111/1745-9125.12012.
[2]
Agnew, R. (2007). Pressured into crime: An overview of general strain theory. New York, NY: Oxford.
[3]
Asher, J. (2016). A handful of cities are driving 2016’s rise in murders [Web log post]. Retrieved from http://fivethirtyeight. com/features/a-handful-of-cities-are-driving-2016s-rise-in-murders/.
[4]
Assimakis, P. D., and Dillbeck, M. C. (1995). Time series analysis of improved quality of life in Canada: Social change, collective consciousness, and the TM-Sidhi program. Psychological Reports, 76, 1171–1193. doi:10.2466/pr0.1995.76.3c.1171.
[5]
Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W., and Hendry, D. F. (1993). Co-integration, error correction and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
[6]
Beasley, R. W., and Antunes, G. (1974). The etiology of urban crime: An ecological analysis. Criminology, 11, 439–461.
[7]
Box, G. E. P., and Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
[8]
Box, G. E. P., and Tiao, G. C. (1975). Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(349), 70–79.
[9]
Cantor, D., and Land, K. C. (1985). Unemployment and crime rates in the post-World War II United States: A theoretical and empirical analysis. American Sociological Review, 50, 317–332.
[10]
Cavanaugh, K. L., and Dillbeck, M. C. (2017). The contribution of proposed field effects of consciousness to the prevention of U.S. accidental fatalities: Theory and empirical tests. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 24(1–2), 53–86.
[11]
Chelimsky, E., Shadish, W. R., and Orwin, R. G. (1997). Twenty-one years and counting: The interrupted time series comes of age. In E. Chelimsky and R. Shadish (eds.), Evaluation for the 21st century (pp. 443–465). London, UK: Sage.
[12]
Choi, I. (2015). Almost all about unit roots: Foundations, developments, and applications. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
[13]
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
[14]
Cook, T. D., and Campbell, D. T. (1979). Quasi-experimentation: Design and analysis issues for field settings. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
[15]
Darlington, R. B., and Hayes, A. F. (2017). Regression analysis and linear models: Concepts, applications, and implementation. New York, NY: Guilford Press.
[16]
Davidson, J. (2016). Time Series Modelling version 4.49: Models and methods. Retrieved from http://www.timeseriesmodelling.com.
[17]
Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
[18]
Dillbeck, M. C. (1990). Test of a field hypothesis of consciousness and social change: Time series analysis of participation in the TM-Sidhi program and reduction of violent death in the US. Social Indicators Research, 22, 399–418. doi:10.1007/BF00303834.
[19]
Dillbeck, M. C., Banus, C. B., Polanzi, C., and Landrith, G. S. III. (1988). Test of a field model of consciousness and social change: Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi program and decreased urban crime. The Journal of Mind and Behavior, 9, 457–486.
[20]
Dillbeck, M. C., and Cavanaugh, K. L. (2016). Societal violence and collective consciousness: Reduction of U.S. homicide and urban violent crime rates. SAGE Open, 6(2), 1–16. doi: 10.1177/2158244016637891.
[21]
Dillbeck, M. C., and Cavanaugh, K. L. (in press). Group practice of the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi program and reductions in infant mortality and drug-related death: A quasi-experimental analysis. SAGE Open.
[22]
Dillbeck, M. C., Cavanaugh, K. L., Glenn, T., Orme-Johnson, D. W., and Mittlefehldt, V. (1987). Effects of Transcendental Meditation and the TM-Sidhi program on quality of life indicators: Consciousness as a field. The Journal of Mind and Behavior, 8, 67–104.
[23]
Dillbeck, M. C., Landrith, G. S. III, and Orme-Johnson, D. W. (1981). The Transcendental Meditation program and crime rate change in a sample of forty-eight cities. Journal of Crime and Justice, 4, 25–45.
[24]
Doornik, J. A., and Hansen, H. (2008). An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normality. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70, 927–939. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00537.x.
[25]
Doornik, J. A., and Hendry, D. F. (2013). Empirical econometric modelling–PcGive 14: Volume 1. London, UK: Timberlake Consultants Press.
[26]
Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
[27]
Eng, J. (2012, January 3). Jobless rate up, but crime down: What gives? nbcnews.com. Retrieved from http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/01/03/9925171-jobless-rate-up-but-crime-down-what-gives?lite.
[28]
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional hetero-scedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987–1007. doi: 10.2307/1912773.
[29]
Fales, E., and Markovsky, B. (1997). Evaluating heterodox theories. Social Forces, 76, 511–525.
[30]
Friedman, M., Fortier, N., and Cullen, J. (2015, November 18). Crime in 2015: A preliminary analysis. Retrieved from Brennan Center for Crime and Justice, School of Law, New York University website http://www.brennancenter.org/publication/crime-2015-preliminary-analysis.
[31]
Friedman, M., Grawert, A. C., and Cullen, J. (2016, September 19). Crime in 2016: A preliminary analysis. Retrieved from Brennan Center for Crime and Justice, School of Law, New York University website https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/crime-2016-preliminary-analysis.
[32]
Glass, G. V. (1997). Interrupted time series quasi-experiments. In R. M. Jaeger (ed.), Complementary methods for research in education (2nd ed., pp. 589–608). Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.
[33]
Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing for higher order serial correlation in regression equations when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica, 46, 1303–1313. doi:10.2307/1913830.
[34]
Goswami, A. (2001) Physics within non-dual consciousness. Philosophy East and West, 51(4), 535–544.
[35]
Granger, C. W. J., and Newbold, P. (1986). Forecasting economic time series (2nd ed.). Orlando, FL: Academic Press.
[36]
Grawert, A., and Cullen, J. (2016, April 20). Crime in 2015: A final analysis. Retrieved from Brennan Center for Crime and Justice, School of Law, New York University website https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/crime-2015-final-analysis.
[37]
Grissom, R. J., and Kim, J. J. (2012) Effect sizes for research: Univariate and multivariate applications (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Routledge.
[38]
Gross, M., and Haroche, S. (1982). Superradiance: An essay on the theory of collective spontaneous emission. Physic Reports, 93, 301–396.
[39]
Guerino, P., Harrison, P. M., and Sabol, W. L. (2011, December 15). Prisoners in 2010 (revised). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved from http://www.bjs. gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2230.
[40]
Hagelin, J. S. (1987). Is consciousness the unified field? A field theorist’s perspective. Modern Science and Vedic Science, 1, 28–87.
[41]
Hagelin, J. S., Rainforth, M. V., Orme-Johnson, D. W., Cavanaugh, K. L., Alexander, C. A., Shatkin, S. F., … Ross, E. (1999). Effects of group practice of the Transcendental Meditation program on preventing violent crime in Washington, DC: Results of the National Demonstration Project, June–July 1993. Social Indicators Research, 47, 153–201. doi:10.1023/A:1006978911496.
[42]
Harris, D., McCabe, B., and Leybourne, S. (2008). Testing for long memory. Econometric Theory, 24, 143–175.
[43]
Harvey, A. (1990). The econometric analysis of time series (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
[44]
Hatchard, G. D., Deans, A. J., Cavanaugh, K. L., and Orme-Johnson, D. W. (1996) The Maharishi Effect: A model for social improvement. Time series analysis of a phase transition to reduced crime in Merseyside metropolitan area. Psychology, Crime, & Law, 2, 165–174. doi: 10.1080/10683169608409775.
[45]
Hendry, D. F. (1995). Dynamic econometrics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
[46]
Howden, L. M., and Meyer, J. A. (2011, May). Age and sex composition: 2010. In 2010 Census Briefs, 2. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved from http://www.census. gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf.
[47]
Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., and Miguel, E. (2013, September 13). Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science, 341(6151), 1235367. doi:10.1126/science1235367.
[48]
Humphrey, J. A., and Palmer, S. (1986). Stressful life events and criminal homicide. Omega, 17, 299–308.
[49]
Kiviet, J. F. (1986). On the rigour of some misspecification tests for modelling dynamic relationships. Review of Economic Studies, 53, 241–261. doi:10.2307/2297649.
[50]
Lanza, R., and Berman, B. (2010). Biocentrism: How life and consciousness are keys to understanding the true nature of the universe. Dallas, TX: BenBella Books.
[51]
Maharishi Mahesh Yogi. (1986). Life supported by Natural Law, Washington, DC: Age of Enlightenment Press.
[52]
Marvell, T. B., and Moody, C. E. (1994). Prison population and crime reduction. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 10, 109–139. doi:10.1007/BF02221155.
[53]
Mladenka, K. R., and Hill, K. Q. (1976). A re-examination of the etiology of urban crime. Criminology, 13, 491–506.
[54]
Nader, T. (2015). Consciousness is all that there is: A mathematical approach with applications. International Journal of Mathematics and Consciousness, 1, 1–65.
[55]
National Aeronautic and Space Administration Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Retrieved from http://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/647_Global_Temperature_Data_File.txt.
[56]
Newey, W. K., and West, K. (1987). A simple positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703–708.
[57]
Nivette, A. E. (2011). Cross-national predictors of crime: A meta-analysis. Homicide Studies, 15, 103–131. doi:10.1177/ 1088767911406397.
[58]
Orme-Johnson, D. W., Alexander, C. N., Davies, J. L., Chandler, H. M., and Larimore, W. E. (1988). International peace project in the Middle East: The effect of the Maharishi Technology of the Unified Field. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32, 776–812. doi: 10.1177/0022002788032004009.
[59]
Orme-Johnson, D. W., Alexander, C. N., and Davies, J. L. (1990). The effects of the Maharishi Technology of the Unified Field: Reply to a methodological critique. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34, 756–768. doi:10.1177/ 0022002790034004009.
[60]
Orme-Johnson, D. W., Dillbeck, M. C., and Alexander, C. N. (2003). Preventing terrorism and international conflict: Effects of large assemblies of participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 36, 283–302. doi:10.1300/J076v36n01_13.
[61]
Orme-Johnson, D. W., and Oates, R. M. (2009). A field-theoretic view of consciousness: Reply to critics. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 23, 139–166.
[62]
Park, H., and Katz, J. (2016, September 9). Murder rates rose in a quarter of the nation’s 100 largest cities. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/08/us/us-murder-rates.html).
[63]
Patterson, K. (2012). Unit root tests in time series, vol. 2: Extensions and developments. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.
[64]
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361–1401. doi:10.2307/1913712.
[65]
Perron, P. (2006). Dealing with structural breaks. In T. C. Mills and K. Patterson (eds.), Palgrave handbook of econometrics, vol. 1: Econometric theory (pp. 278–352). Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave-Macmillan.
[66]
Quinney, R. (1966). Structural characteristics, population areas, and crime rates in the United States. The Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology and Police Science, 57, 45–52.
[67]
Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for specification errors in classical linear least squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B—Methodological, 31, 350–371.
[68]
Roizen, J. (1997). Epidemiological issues in alcohol-related violence. In M. Galanter (ed.), Recent developments in alcoholism (vol. 13, pp.7–40). New York, NY: Plenum Press.
[69]
Rosenfeld, R. (2016, June). Documenting and explaining the 2015 homicide rise: Research directions (Report NCJ 249895). National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Retrieved from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf.
[70]
Sabol, W. J., and West, H. C. (2011, December 15). Prisoners in 2009 (revised). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved from http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2232.
[71]
Said, S. E., and Dickey, D. (1984). Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving-average models with unknown order. Biometrika, 71, 599–607. doi:10.1093/biomet/71.3.599.
[72]
Schrodt, P. (1990). Methodological critique of “International peace project in the Middle East,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34, 756–768.
[73]
Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D., and Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
[74]
Skrbina, D. (2005). Panpsychism in the West, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
[75]
Spector, P. E. (1975). Population density and unemployment: The effects on the incidence of violent crime in the American city. Criminology, 12, 399–401.
[76]
Theise, N. D., and Kafatos, M. C. (2016). Fundamental awareness: A framework for integrating science, philosophy and metaphysics. Communicative & Integrative Biology, 9(3). e1155010, doi: 10.1080/19420889.2016.1155010.
[77]
U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2016). Crime in the United States 2015. Retrieved from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015.
[78]
U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2017). Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics, Estimated Crime in United States—Total. Retrieved from https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/.
[79]
White, H. (1980). A heteroskedastic-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–838. doi:10.2307/1912934.
[80]
Williams, T., and Davey, M. (2016, September 27). U.S. murders surged in 2015, F. B. I. finds. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/us/murder-crime-fbi.html?_r=0.
[81]
Zivot, E., and Andrews, K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10, 251–270. doi:10.1080/07350015.1992.10509904.
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
548 FASHION AVENUE
NEW YORK, NY 10018
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-688-8931