The Dynamic Analysis of China's Agricultural Economic Growth
International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
Volume 4, Issue 6, December 2019, Pages: 106-117
Received: Oct. 15, 2019; Accepted: Nov. 7, 2019; Published: Dec. 4, 2019
Views 121      Downloads 38
Authors
Wu Mingran, School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Science and Technology System Reform Think Tank of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
Zhao Min, School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Science and Technology System Reform Think Tank of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
Wu Zhaodan, School of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou, China
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
Based on time series data from 1990 to 2016, an empirical analysis examined the factors affecting China's agricultural economic growth by developing a vector auto-regressive model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition function (VD). The results show that Chinese agriculture lacks long-term support factor. During the study period, an increase in the fixed asset investment, the total agricultural machinery power, the amount of chemical fertilizer used, and the education level of the rural labor force contributed to agricultural economic growth. However, an increase in the size of the agricultural labor force and in the total area under cultivation was not conducive to agricultural economic growth. In addition, China's agricultural economic growth was overly dependent on financial investment, while the contribution of other factors was relatively small. China's agricultural economy clearly has experienced extensive development. Hence, in the next development period, the Chinese government needs to increase agricultural fixed asset investment and strengthen its oversight. In addition, the government needs to strengthen its support of agricultural mechanization, set reasonable limits on the use of chemical fertilizers and, more importantly, focus on improvement in the quality of agricultural products and the accumulation of human capital.
Keywords
Agricultural Economic Growth, Fixed Asset Investment, Agricultural Labor Force Size, Total Power of Agricultural Mechanization, Fertilizer Application Amount, Total Area Under Cultivation, Human Capital
To cite this article
Wu Mingran, Zhao Min, Wu Zhaodan, The Dynamic Analysis of China's Agricultural Economic Growth, International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment. Vol. 4, No. 6, 2019, pp. 106-117. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20190406.11
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
References
[1]
Catherine J Morrison Paul,Donald S Siegel.Scale Economies and Industry Agglomeration Ezternalities: A Dynamic Cost Function Approach [J]. The American Economic Review, 1999.
[2]
Vernon J Henderson,Zmarak Shalizi.Geography and Develop [R]. NBER, Working Paper, 2001.
[3]
Brown L R, Halweil B. China's Water Shortage Could Shake World Food Security [J]. World Watch, 1998, 11 (4): 7-8.
[4]
Du J, Liu Y. Human Capital Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on the China's Provinces Data [J]. Economic Review, 2008 (3): 22-27. (in Chinese).
[5]
Pan D, Yin R Y. Relationship Between Water Resource and Agricultural Economic Growth in China: Research Based on Panel VAR [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22 (1): 161-166. (in Chinese).
[6]
Xu C X, Lin J T, Song M. Research on the spatial effects of water and soil matching degree on economic growth of regional agriculture based on empirical analysis during 2003-2013 in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26 (7): 153-158. (in Chinese).
[7]
Mi H M, Lu Q. Effect of water investment on agricultural economic growth in Shanxi Province [J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2015, 20 (1): 262-267. (in Chinese).
[8]
Li Q, Chen H M, Wang Y P. The Interactive Effect of Agricultural Water and Agricultural Economic Growth in Xinjiang [J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36 (8): 1679-1685. (in Chinese).
[9]
Matsuyama K.. Agriculture Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth [J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1992 (2): 317-334.
[10]
Antle Schick. The Private R&D Investment Response to Federal Design and Technical Competitions [J]. American Economic Review, 1993: 178.
[11]
J. A. Mollot. Public Finance and Public Policy: Responsibilities and Limitations of Government [M]. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003.
[12]
Peter Timmer. Agriculture and Pro-Poor Growth [M]. Center for Global Development, 2005.
[13]
Li X S, Ran G H. Fiscal Decentralization, Agricultural Economic Growth and Urban-Rural Income Disparity [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2013 (1): 86-94. (in Chinese).
[14]
Lyu C L, Jiang H C. A Study on Effects of Fiscal Expenditure for Agriculture on Agricultural Economic Growth-Based on 1952-2012Data Analysis [J]. The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics, 2016, 37 (6): 90-95. (in Chinese).
[15]
R. Solow. Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1957, 39 (3): 312-320.
[16]
Denison, Edward F. Why rowth rates differ: post-war experience in nine westem countries. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1967.
[17]
P. Romer. Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy,1986,94 (5): 1002-1037.
[18]
Huang J, Rozelle S. Market development and food consumption in rural china [J]. Economic Review, 1998, 9 (1): 25-45.
[19]
Yao Y T, Chen W M, Li x L. Research of Relationship Between Environmentally-friendly Agricultural Technology Innovation and Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24 (8): 122-130. (in Chinese).
[20]
Liu Y P, Zhong S C. The Impact of the Direction of Technological Progress, the Substitution Elasticity between Capital and Labor on the Growth of Agricultural Economics [J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2016 (9): 3-9. (in Chinese).
[21]
Bao H J, Liu D G, Chen Y. The Empirical Test of the Relationship between Agricultural Mechanization and Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. Statistics & Decision, 2012 (21): 139-141. (in Chinese).
[22]
Wu L H, Peng Y W. Research on Dynamic Correlation between Agricultural Science and Technology Input and Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2013 (12): 87-93. (in Chinese).
[23]
Wu X L, Zhang J B, Feng J H. Technological Innovation, Spillover and Agricultural Economic Growth of Agricultural Scientific Institution Technological Innovation of Agricultural Scientific Institutions, Spillover and Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2016, 36 (17): 79-86. (in Chinese).
[24]
Schultz, T. W. Investment in human capital. American Economic Review, 1961 (51): 1-17.
[25]
Mankiw,N. G.,Romer,D. and Weil,D. N. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992 (107): 407-437.
[26]
Barro, R. J. Human Capital and Growth. American Economic Review, 2001 (91): 12~17.
[27]
Bloom D. E., D.Canning and J.Sevilla.The Effect of Heath on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach [J]. World Development, 2004, 32 (1): 1-13.
[28]
Du J, Liu Y. Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Agricultural Economic Growth: Physical Capital, Human Capital, or Foreign Trade? [J]. Nankai Economics Studies, 2010 (3): 73-89. (in Chinese).
[29]
Sun Y P, Zhou X. Research on the Influence of Heterogeneous Human Capital on China's Agricultural Economic Growth—Based on Provincial Panel Data [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015 (4): 108-119. (in Chinese).
[30]
Patrick,G. F. and Kehrberg,E. W. Costs and returns of education in five agricultural areas of eastern Brazil. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1973 (55): 145-153.
[31]
Phillips, J. M. and Marble, R. P. Farmer education and efficiency: A frontier production function approach. Economics of Education Review, 1986 (5): 257-264.
[32]
Islam,N. Growth Empirics: A panel Data Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995 (4): 1127-1170.
[33]
Wu J, Chen J. An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents and Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2010 (12): 25-30. (in Chinese).
[34]
Yao X B, Luo G Q, Ning R F. Research on the Regional Effect of Urbanization and Agricultural Economic Growth—An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model [J]. Journal of Southwest University ( Social Sciences Edition), 2016, 42 (3): 60-68+190. (in Chinese).
[35]
Sun H M, Hu D X, Liu L Y. The effect of Agricultural Export and Import on Jilin’s Agricultural Economic Growth [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2016, 37 (1): 174-180. (in Chinese).
[36]
Ji Q H. An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Education Level and Agricultural Economic Growth—Based on Rural Panel Data of 30 Provinces and Cities in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,, 2017, 38 (5): 101-107. (in Chinese).
[37]
Zhang Y Q, Zhou Y H, Yi Z Y. Rural Financial Development, Agricultural Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase—An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2013 (11): 50-56. (in Chinese).
[38]
Liu J Q, Xu N, Liu D Y. A Study on the Non-linear Correlative Mechanism of Rural Financial Development and Agricultural Economic Growth: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test [J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, 16 (2): 134-143+156. (in Chinese).
[39]
Wang H, Wang E X. Research on the relationship between agricultural industrial structure optimization and agricultural economic growth—Case of Hunan province [J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology (Social Sciences), 2017, 37 (6): 119-124. (in Chinese).
[40]
Smis A C. Macroeconomics and reality [J]. Econometrica, 1980 (48): 1-48.
[41]
Song S L, Wang X L. Analysis of the Impact of China's Agricultural Economy Growth Moment under the New Normal—Based on the Statistics of Heilongjiang Province from 1990 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,, 2017 (7): 102-108. (in Chinese).
[42]
Mao S P, Ji X X. The Financial Effective Inputs to Agriculture and Countryside: Searching a Path [J]. Reform, 2017 (11): 136-147. (in Chinese).
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186