Mathematical Modelling and Applications

| Peer-Reviewed |

Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra

Received: 26 October 2017    Accepted: 22 November 2017    Published: 02 January 2018
Views:       Downloads:

Share This Article

Abstract

Road transportation remains the dominant mode of transporting goods and commuters in Ghana. Over the last couple of decades, the Government of Ghana has aggressively pursued a comprehensive road infrastructural development and maintenance programmes with the aim of improving the entire road network in response to increase in travel and transportation. This is as a result of growth and expansion of economic activity with raised consumption levels of the people. Consequently, this improvement is aimed at reducing the menace and the carnage on roads in the country. Unfortunately, with the increasing road network, the number of fatalities has also been on the rise leading to great concerns for road safety. The purpose of this paper is to come out with a predictive mathematical model on the trend of Road Traffic Accident (RTA) occurrence in Ghana. Descriptive data in the public domain from statutory bodies especially the Motor Traffic and Transport Directorate (MTTD) of the Ghana Police Service on RTAs together with a host of academic papers on the subject matter were used as sources of information. The result of the sixth order polynomial analysis showed an r-squared value of 0.957 which was statistically significant inferring that the model has a 95.7% accuracy of predicting road traffic accidents in Ghana. It was also evident that road traffic accidents significantly increased with increased stretch of roads (km), absence of road safety officials and the blatant disregard for road safety measures aimed at ensuring safety on the roads. Based on the findings, recommendations were advised on how to reduce the phenomenon of traffic accidents in Ghana particularly in the Greater Accra region.

DOI 10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11
Published in Mathematical Modelling and Applications (Volume 3, Issue 1, March 2018)
Page(s) 1-8
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Road Traffic Accidents (RTA), Predictive Model, Sixth-Order Polynomial, Road Safety

References
[1] Administration of Traffic and Authorizations, Tripoli, Libya (2009).
[2] Afukaar F. K., Antwi P, Ofosu-Amaah S. (2003). Pattern of road traffic injuries in Ghana: Implications for control. Inj Control Saf Promot 2003; 10: 69–76.
[3] Al-Reesi, H., Ganguly, S. S., Al-Adawi, S., Laflamme, L., Hasselberg, M., & Al-Maniri, A. (2013). Economic Growth, Motorization, and Road Traffic Injuries in the Sultanate of Oman, 19852009. Traffic Injury Prevention, 14 (3), 322-328. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2012.694088.
[4] Atubi, A. O. (2012) Determinants of Road Traffic Accident Occurrences in Lagos State: Some Lessons for Nigeria, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 6 [Special Issue – March 2012] 252.
[5] Atubi, A. O. and Onokala, P. C. (2009) Contemporary Analysis of Variability in Road Traffic Accidents in Lagos State, Nigeria. Journal of African Geographical Review. Vol. 28, Pp. 11-41.
[6] Atubi, A. O. (2010c) Road Traffic Accident Variations in Lagos State, Nigeria: A Synopsis of Variance Spectra. Journal of African Research Review. Vol. 4, No. 2, Pp. 197-218.
[7] Auditor Generals Department, Ghana. Performance Audit of the Auditor General on Road Safety in Ghana;
[8] Astrom, J. S., Kert, M. P. & Jovin, R. D. (2006). Signatures of Four Generations of Road Safety Planning in Nairobi City, Kenya, Journal of Eastern African Research and Development 120:186-201.
[9] Bener, A. and El-Sayyad, G. M. 91985) Epidemiology of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Jeddeh. Journal of the Royal Society of Health, 105:200-201.
[10] Bishai, D., Quresh, A., James, P. and Ghaffar, A. (2006) National Road Casualties and Economic Development. Health Economics, 15, 65-81.
[11] Bjerre, J., Kirkebjerg, P. G. and Larsen, L. B. (2006) Prevention of Traffic Deaths Involving Motor Vehicles. Ugeskrift for Læger, 168, 1764-1768.
[12] Boateng, P. K. The Chronicle Article, (Thursday May 12, 2011), Curbing Road Accidents in Ghana.
[13] Centers for Disease Control. CDC Surveillance Update. Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 1988.
[14] Coleman, A. (2014) Road Traffic Accidents in Ghana: A Public Health Concern, and a Call for Action in Ghana, (and the Sub-Region); Open Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2014, 4, 822-828.
[15] Dessie T & I. arson CP (1991). The occurrence arid driver characteristics associated with motor vehicle injuries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 94, 335-400.
[16] Feachem, R. G. A; Kjellstorm, T,; Murray, C. J. L.; Over, M. and Philips, M. A. (1992) The Health of Adults in the Developing World, London: Oxford University Press.
[17] Gründl, M. (2005). Fehler und Fehlverhalten als Ursache von Verkehrsunfällen und Konsequenzen für das Unfallvermeidungspotential und die Gestaltung von Fahrassistenzsystemen. PhD Thesis, University of Regensburg, Regensburg.
[18] Hacker, W. (2005). Allgemeine Arbeitspsychologie (2ND Ed.). Bern: Hans Huber.
[19] Hazen, A. and Ehiri, J. E. (2006) Road Traffic Injuries: Hidden Epidemic in Less Developed Countries. Journal of the National Medical Association, 98, 73-82.
[20] Holder Y, Peden M, Krug E, Lund J, Gururaj G, Kobusingye O (2001). Injury surveillance guidelines. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2001.
[21] Ismail, A. and Yahia, H. A. H. (2013) Causes and Effects of Road Traffic Accidents in Tripoli – Libya; Proceeding the 6th Civil Engineering Conference in Asia Region: Embracing the Future through Sustainability ISBN 978-602-8605-08-3.
[22] Jacobs G, Aaron-Thomas A, Astrop A. Estimating global road fatalities. TRL Report 445. London: Transport Research Laboratory; 2000.
[23] Ministry of Transport, (2008); Report on Public Transportation, Accra. Ghana.
[24] Mock, C., Kobusingye, O., Anh, L. V., Afukaar, F. and Arreola-Risa, C. (2005) Human Resources for the Control of Road Traffic Injury. Bulletin of the World Health Organisation, 83.
[25] National Road safety Commission Report (2012), Ghana’s Response to the Road Safety Challenge.
[26] Obeng, R. M. (2008). Another Look into Road Traffic Accidents, Feature Article. 2008-08-08.
[27] Ofosu, J. B., Abonammoh, A. M. and Bener, A. (1988): A Study of Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 20:95-111.
[28] Ogunsanya, A. A. (1991) Empirical Cases Studies of Accident and Safety Control of Mass Transit Agencies in Nigeria. In Bolade T, and Ogunsanya A. (eds) Accident Control and Safety measures in Mass Transit Operations in Nigeria. Ibadan: University Press. Pp. 87-115.
[29] Osei–Kyei, R. and Chan, A. P. C. (2016): Developing Transport Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa through Public–Private Partnerships: Policy Practice and Implications, Transport Reviews, 36:2, 170-186, DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2015.1077288.
[30] Peden, M. (2005) Global Collaboration on Road Traffic Injury Prevention. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 12, 85-91.
[31] Plankermann, K. (2013). Human Factors as Causes for Road Traffic Accidents in the Sultanate of Oman under Consideration of Road Construction Designs.
[32] Reason, J. (2000). Human error: models and management. Journal Digest, 172, 393-396.
[33] Rumar, K. (1999), Speed: A sensitive matter for drivers. VTI Transport Development AB, Nordic Road and Transport Research, No. 1, pp. 20-22.
[34] Smart, R. G. and Mann, R. E. (2002) Death and Injuries from Road Rage: Cases in Canadian Newspapers. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 167, 761-762.
[35] Smith, D. J. (2005). Center for Transportation Research and Education Iowa State University.
[36] Smith, G. S. and Barss, P. (1991) Unintentional Injuries in Developing Countries: The Epidemiology of a neglected problem. Epidemiology Review. 13, 228-266.
[37] World Bank (1990) “Road Safety Problem in the Third World”. The Urban Edge. Vol. 14, No. 1.
[38] World Health Organization (1984) Road Traffic Accidents in Developing Countries, Geneva: WHO, TRS 703.
[39] World Health Organization (1989) Analysis of Achievements of Traffic Safety in Industrialized and Developed Countries.
[40] World Health Organization (2014) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013. WHO Press, Geneva.
[41] World Health Organization (2011) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2010. WHO Press, Geneva.
[42] World Health Organization (2010) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2009. WHO Press, Geneva.
[43] World Health Organization (2009) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2008. WHO Press, Geneva.
[44] WHO and World Bank (2004) World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention. WHO, Geneva. Salifu, M. and Mock, C. N. (1998) Pedestrian Injuries in Kumasi: Results of an Epidemiologic Survey. The Ghana Engineer, 18, 2-3.
[45] Wu, S. I. and Malison, M. D. (1990) Motor Vehicle Injuries in Taiwan. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 4:72-75.
[46] Wuaku, D. H. (2016). National Road Safety Commission (NRSC) Report on Road Traffic Accidents Cases in Ghana.
Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Accra Technical University, Accra, Ghana

  • Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Accra Technical University, Accra, Ghana

  • Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Accra Technical University, Accra, Ghana

  • Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Accra Technical University, Accra, Ghana

Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Edwin Mends–Brew, Joseph Dadzie, Ben Apau Dadson, Martin Owusu Amoamah. (2018). Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra. Mathematical Modelling and Applications, 3(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Edwin Mends–Brew; Joseph Dadzie; Ben Apau Dadson; Martin Owusu Amoamah. Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra. Math. Model. Appl. 2018, 3(1), 1-8. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Edwin Mends–Brew, Joseph Dadzie, Ben Apau Dadson, Martin Owusu Amoamah. Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra. Math Model Appl. 2018;3(1):1-8. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11,
      author = {Edwin Mends–Brew and Joseph Dadzie and Ben Apau Dadson and Martin Owusu Amoamah},
      title = {Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra},
      journal = {Mathematical Modelling and Applications},
      volume = {3},
      number = {1},
      pages = {1-8},
      doi = {10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mma.20180301.11},
      abstract = {Road transportation remains the dominant mode of transporting goods and commuters in Ghana. Over the last couple of decades, the Government of Ghana has aggressively pursued a comprehensive road infrastructural development and maintenance programmes with the aim of improving the entire road network in response to increase in travel and transportation. This is as a result of growth and expansion of economic activity with raised consumption levels of the people. Consequently, this improvement is aimed at reducing the menace and the carnage on roads in the country. Unfortunately, with the increasing road network, the number of fatalities has also been on the rise leading to great concerns for road safety. The purpose of this paper is to come out with a predictive mathematical model on the trend of Road Traffic Accident (RTA) occurrence in Ghana. Descriptive data in the public domain from statutory bodies especially the Motor Traffic and Transport Directorate (MTTD) of the Ghana Police Service on RTAs together with a host of academic papers on the subject matter were used as sources of information. The result of the sixth order polynomial analysis showed an r-squared value of 0.957 which was statistically significant inferring that the model has a 95.7% accuracy of predicting road traffic accidents in Ghana. It was also evident that road traffic accidents significantly increased with increased stretch of roads (km), absence of road safety officials and the blatant disregard for road safety measures aimed at ensuring safety on the roads. Based on the findings, recommendations were advised on how to reduce the phenomenon of traffic accidents in Ghana particularly in the Greater Accra region.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Modelling the Trend of Road Traffic Accidents in Accra
    AU  - Edwin Mends–Brew
    AU  - Joseph Dadzie
    AU  - Ben Apau Dadson
    AU  - Martin Owusu Amoamah
    Y1  - 2018/01/02
    PY  - 2018
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11
    T2  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
    JF  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
    JO  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
    SP  - 1
    EP  - 8
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-1794
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20180301.11
    AB  - Road transportation remains the dominant mode of transporting goods and commuters in Ghana. Over the last couple of decades, the Government of Ghana has aggressively pursued a comprehensive road infrastructural development and maintenance programmes with the aim of improving the entire road network in response to increase in travel and transportation. This is as a result of growth and expansion of economic activity with raised consumption levels of the people. Consequently, this improvement is aimed at reducing the menace and the carnage on roads in the country. Unfortunately, with the increasing road network, the number of fatalities has also been on the rise leading to great concerns for road safety. The purpose of this paper is to come out with a predictive mathematical model on the trend of Road Traffic Accident (RTA) occurrence in Ghana. Descriptive data in the public domain from statutory bodies especially the Motor Traffic and Transport Directorate (MTTD) of the Ghana Police Service on RTAs together with a host of academic papers on the subject matter were used as sources of information. The result of the sixth order polynomial analysis showed an r-squared value of 0.957 which was statistically significant inferring that the model has a 95.7% accuracy of predicting road traffic accidents in Ghana. It was also evident that road traffic accidents significantly increased with increased stretch of roads (km), absence of road safety officials and the blatant disregard for road safety measures aimed at ensuring safety on the roads. Based on the findings, recommendations were advised on how to reduce the phenomenon of traffic accidents in Ghana particularly in the Greater Accra region.
    VL  - 3
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

  • Sections