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Modelling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Disease with Contact Tracing and Isolation in Ghana
Mathematical Modelling and Applications
Volume 5, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages: 146-155
Received: Jun. 9, 2020; Accepted: Jun. 23, 2020; Published: Jul. 6, 2020
Authors
Eric Neebo Wiah, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana
Ernest Danso-Addo, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana
Daniel Ekow Bentil, Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, University of Vermont, Burlington, USA
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Abstract
We have formulated a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the current novel COVID-19 disease outbreak in Ghana. The coronavirus originated from Wuhan,, China. Majority of people who contact the disease experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover. The elderly and people with underlying health issues experience severe complications. A plethora of measures have been taken by the government of Ghana to curtail the disease. The model considers, among other things, quarantining and testing of immigrants, contact tracing and isolation in the form of quarantining or hospitalization, as control measures in mitigating the spread of the pandemic. Our model considers the following classes: susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine, treatment and recovery class. The steady-state solution was calculated and the basic reproduction number for this model calculated and used as a threshold to determine the asymptotic behaviour of the model. Our analytical and numerical results show a close dependence of the basic reproductive number on epidemic parameters. The aim of this paper was to incorporate the various intervention strategies into the model and ascertain their impact on COVID-19. Some of the methods employed in the analysis include the Next Generation Matrix and the Jacobian Matrix. Our simulations results correlate well with data and indicate that early quarantine and a high quarantine rate are crucial to the control of COVID-19. Thus, current preventative measures, such as isolation, contact tracing and treatment are, indeed, critical components in the control of COVID-19 until appropriate cure or vaccine is found.
Keywords
COVID-19, Reproduction Number, Stability Analysis, Contract Tracing, Isolation
Eric Neebo Wiah, Ernest Danso-Addo, Daniel Ekow Bentil, Modelling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Disease with Contact Tracing and Isolation in Ghana, Mathematical Modelling and Applications. Vol. 5, No. 3, 2020, pp. 146-155. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20200503.13
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