| Peer-Reviewed

Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang

Received: 19 October 2018    Accepted: 27 November 2018    Published: 25 December 2018
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

To further evaluate the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu in the hope of analyzing the effect. In this paper, the method of the regression test of areas was applied, the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978 - 2013 in Akesu and Kashi with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression. The results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23802 hm2, and the relative loss rate was 54.5% after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu. Combined with the agricultural economic data, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB, annual input and output ratio nearly was 1:10. The statistical significant level highly reached α=0.01. Therefore, through scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations, it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great in Akesu.

Published in American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering (Volume 2, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12
Page(s) 43-48
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Artificial Hail Suppression, Regression Test of Areas, Performance and Effect Evaluation

References
[1] Rasul·ABLA, NIU Sheng-jie, Ablimitjan·ABLIKIM, et al. Study of the method of partitional hail forecast in Xinjiang region [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37 (4): 1041-1049. (in Chinese)
[2] Resuli·ABULA, NIU Sheng-jie, WANG Hong-yan. Spatial temporal distribution characteristic of hail in Xinjiang [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22 (2): 158-163. (in Chinese)
[3] ZHANG Jun-lan, ZHANG Li. Climate characteristics of severe hail events during 50 years in Aksu, Xinjiang, China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2011, 31 (1): 236-241. (in Chinese)
[4] SHI Lian-mei, ZHAO Zhi-peng, WANG Xu. Temporal and spatial distribution features of hail disaster in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2014 [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37 (4): 898-904. (in Chinese)
[5] Mansur SABIT. Analyzing the spatio-temporal variations of hail disasters in southern Xinjiang region during recent 60 years [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34 (4): 795-801. (in Chinese)
[6] CAI Yi-yong, WANG Hong, YU Yong-jiang. Spatiotemporal distribution and weather characteristics of hail in Fujian Province [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18 (4): 43-48. (in Chinese)
[7] MA Xu-jie, CHEN Shu, REN Yu-long, et al. Analysis of climatic characteristic of hail and its short-time prediction system in Linxia of Gansu Province [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30 (2): 293-297. (in Chinese)
[8] WANG Xian-bin, ZHANG Dan-mei, Xin Yan-hui, et al. Study on potential forecasting and short-time nowcasting models of hailstone in Fuxin [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34 (1): 106-113. (in Chinese)
[9] YIN Xue-lian, DONG An-xiang, DING Rong. Features and short-term forecast of hail in Zhangye City [J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23 (6): 804-809. (in Chinese)
[10] LI Yao-dong, GAO Shou-ting, LIU Jian-wen. A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather forecasting [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2004, 15 (1): 10-20. (in Chinese)
[11] LIU Yu-ling. A study of severe convective parameters and their potential predictability to severe convective storms [J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2003, 31 (3): 147-151. (in Chinese)
[12] HONG Yan-chao. Study on mechanism of hail formation and hail suppression with seeding [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1999, 57 (1): 30-44. (in Chinese)
[13] XU Huan-bin, DUAN Ying. The mechanism of hailstones formation and the hail suppression hypothesis beneficial competition [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 25 (2): 277-288. (in Chinese)
[14] WANG Bai-zhong, WANG Guang-he, GAO Bin-yong. Effect of hail suppression on agricultural disaster [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18 (2): 27-32. (in Chinese)
[15] Wang Qiu-xiang, RenYi-yong. Temporal and spatial distribution features of hail disasters in Xinjiang in recent 51 years [J]. Arid Land Geography 2006, 29 (1): 65-69
[16] Chen Hong-wu, Ma Yu, Wang Xu, et al. Climatic characteristics of hail weather in Xinjiang [J]. Meteorology, 2003, 29 (11): 25-28
[17] Wang Xu, MA Yu. Basic characteristics of hail weather in Xinjiang [J]. Xinjiang Meteorology, 2002, 25 (1): 10-14.
[18] Ma Yu, Wang Xu, Zhao Bing-ke, et al. Spatial and temporal statistical character of hail in Xinjiang [J]. Xinjiang Meteorology, 2002, 25 (1): 4-5.
[19] Yang Lian-mei. Climatic characteristics of hail in Xinjiang and prevention [J]. Disaster, 2002, 17 (4): 26-31.
[20] LI Li-hua, CHEN Hong-wu, MAO Wei-yi, et al. GIS-based hail risk zonation and assessment in Aksu Prefecture [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2010, 27 (2): 221-229.
[21] LI Bin, ZHENG Bo-hua, SHI Lian-mei, et al. Statistical evaluation of hail suppression effect in Akesu, Xinjiang [J]. Xinjiang Agriculture Sciences, 2016, 53 (5): 942-948.
[22] CHEN Guang-xue, DUAN Ying, WU Dui, et al. Rocket Weather Modification Technology [M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2008: 193, 198-199, 317-318. (in Chinese)
[23] YE Jia-dong, FAN Pei-fen. Statistical Mathematical Methods of Weather Modification [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1982: 196-202, 301. (in Chinese)
[24] Deng Bei-sheng. Weather Modification Technology and Management [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2011: 146-147.
[25] Science and Technology Education Department of China Meteorological Administration. On-the-job Training Materials of Weather Modification [M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2003: 146-1.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Zheng Bohua, Li Bin, Shi Lianmei, Zhu Sihua. (2018). Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang. American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 2(3), 43-48. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Zheng Bohua; Li Bin; Shi Lianmei; Zhu Sihua. Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang. Am. J. Environ. Sci. Eng. 2018, 2(3), 43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Zheng Bohua, Li Bin, Shi Lianmei, Zhu Sihua. Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang. Am J Environ Sci Eng. 2018;2(3):43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12,
      author = {Zheng Bohua and Li Bin and Shi Lianmei and Zhu Sihua},
      title = {Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang},
      journal = {American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering},
      volume = {2},
      number = {3},
      pages = {43-48},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajese.20180203.12},
      abstract = {To further evaluate the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu in the hope of analyzing the effect. In this paper, the method of the regression test of areas was applied, the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978 - 2013 in Akesu and Kashi with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression. The results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23802 hm2, and the relative loss rate was 54.5% after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu. Combined with the agricultural economic data, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB, annual input and output ratio nearly was 1:10. The statistical significant level highly reached α=0.01. Therefore, through scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations, it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great in Akesu.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang
    AU  - Zheng Bohua
    AU  - Li Bin
    AU  - Shi Lianmei
    AU  - Zhu Sihua
    Y1  - 2018/12/25
    PY  - 2018
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12
    T2  - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering
    JF  - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering
    JO  - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering
    SP  - 43
    EP  - 48
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-7993
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20180203.12
    AB  - To further evaluate the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu in the hope of analyzing the effect. In this paper, the method of the regression test of areas was applied, the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978 - 2013 in Akesu and Kashi with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression. The results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23802 hm2, and the relative loss rate was 54.5% after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu. Combined with the agricultural economic data, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB, annual input and output ratio nearly was 1:10. The statistical significant level highly reached α=0.01. Therefore, through scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations, it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great in Akesu.
    VL  - 2
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

  • Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

  • Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

  • Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

  • Sections