Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia

Chala Abebe Aredo; Cherinet Seboka Ambaye

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

| Peer-Reviewed

Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia

Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye

Published in International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 5, Issue 4)

Received: 6 February 2020 Accepted: 4 March 2020 Published: 7 September 2020

Views: Downloads:

Download PDF

Share This Article

Twitter
Linked In
Facebook

Abstract

Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R²=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R²=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 5, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
Page(s)	66-74
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Variability, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slop, Stem Rust, Yellow Rust

References

[1]	Wang, X., Qadir, M., Rasul, F., Yang, G., & Hu, Y. (2018). Response of Soil Water and Wheat Yield to Rainfall and Temperature Change on the Loess Plateau, China. Agronomy, 8 (7), 101.
[2]	Robertson, S. M., Jeffrey, S. R., Unterschultz, J. R., & Boxall, P. C. (2013). Estimating yield response to temperature and identifying critical temperatures for annual crops in the Canadian prairie region. Canadian Journal of Plant Science, 93 (6), 1237-1247.
[3]	Dehgahi, R., Joniyas, A., & Latip, M. D. Rainfall Distribution and Temperature Effects on Wheat Yield in Torbate Heydarie. International Journal of Science Research in Knowledge, ISSN, 2322-4541.
[4]	Alemu, M. M., & Desta, F. Y. (2017). Seasonal rainfall and crop productivity in South West Ethiopia: Preliminary analysis for recent climate. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 9 (10), 211-217.
[5]	White, J. W., Tanner, D. G., & Corbett, J. D. (2001). An agro-climatological characterization of bread wheat production areas in Ethiopia.
[6]	Bandara, J. S., & Cai, Y. (2014). The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 44 (4), 451-465.
[7]	Medina, S., Vicente, R., Nieto-Taladriz, M. T., Aparicio, N., Chairi, F., Vergara-Diaz, O., & Araus, J. L. (2018). The Plant-Transpiration Response to Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) in Durum Wheat Is Associated With Differential Yield Performance and Specific Expression of Genes Involved in Primary Metabolism and Water Transport. Frontiers in plant science, 9.
[8]	Ludwig, F., & Asseng, S. (2005, December). Impacts and adaptation to climate change in Western Australian wheat cropping systems. In MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.
[9]	Hagos, F., Makombe, G., Namara, R. E., & Awulachew, S. B. (2009). Importance of irrigated agriculture to the Ethiopian economy: Capturing the direct net benefits of irrigation (Vol. 128). IWMI.
[10]	Virmani SM, Sahrawat KL, Burford JR. Physical and chemical properties of Vertisols and their management.
[11]	Poudel, S., & Shaw, R. (2016). The relationships between climate variability and crop yield in a mountainous environment: a case study in Lamjung District, Nepal. Climate, 4 (1), 13.
[12]	Ahmed, M., Hassan, F. U., & Asif, M. (2012). Physiological response of bread wheat ('Triticum aestivum'L.) to high temperature and moisture stresses. Australian Journal of Crop Science, 6 (4), 749.
[13]	Yue, S., & Wang, C. (2004). The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water resources management, 18 (3), 201-218.
[14]	Tamene Mideksa, (2018), Analysis of Climate Variability Effects on Wheat Stem Rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp tritici) Epidemics in Bale and Arsi Zones of Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia, American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics, 4 (2): 49-65, 10.11648/j.ajbes.20180402.12.
[15]	Draz, I. S., Abou-Elseoud, M. S., Kamara, A. E. M., Alaa-Eldein, O. A. E., & El-Bebany, A. F. (2015). Screening of wheat genotypes for leaf rust resistance along with grain yield. Annals of Agricultural Sciences, 60 (1), 29-39.
[16]	Riaz, A., Periyannan, S., Aitken, E., & Hickey, L. (2016). A rapid phenotyping method for adult plant resistance to leaf rust in wheat. Plant methods, 12 (1), 17.
[17]	Donatelli, M., Magarey, R. D., Bregaglio, S., Willocquet, L., Whish, J. P., & Savary, S. (2017). Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Agricultural systems, 155, 213-224.
[18]	Juroszek, P., & Von Tiedemann, A. (2011). Potential strategies and future requirements for plant disease management under a changing climate. Plant Pathology, 60 (1), 100-112.
[19]	Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 1204531.
[20]	Gebrehiwot, T., & van der Veen, A. (2013). Assessing the evidence of climate variability in the northern part of Ethiopia. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 5 (3), 104-119.
[21]	Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182.
[22]	Ahmad, I., Tang, D., Wang, T., Wang, M., & Wagan, B. (2015). Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, 2015.
[23]	Alhaji, U., Yusuf, A. C., Edet, C. O., & Celestine, O. (2018). Trend analysis of temperature in Gombe state using mann kendall trend test. J. Sci. Res. Rep, 20 (3), 1-9.
[24]	Allen-Sader, C., Thurston, W., Meyer, M., Nure, E., Bacha, N., Alemayehu, Y. & Burgin, L. E. (2019). An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11), 115004.
[25]	Allen-Sader, C., Thurston, W., Meyer, M., Nure, E., Bacha, N., Alemayehu, Y., & Burgin, L. E. (2019). An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11), 115004.

Cite This Article

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. (2020). Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 5(4), 66-74. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Chala Abebe Aredo; Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2020, 5(4), 66-74. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2020;5(4):66-74. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12,
  author = {Chala Abebe Aredo and Cherinet Seboka Ambaye},
  title = {Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {5},
  number = {4},
  pages = {66-74},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20200504.12},
  abstract = {Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R2=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R2=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia
AU  - Chala Abebe Aredo
AU  - Cherinet Seboka Ambaye
Y1  - 2020/09/07
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 66
EP  - 74
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
AB  - Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R2=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R2=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.
VL  - 5
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download

Author Information

Chala Abebe Aredo

Oromia Seed Enterprize (OSE), Sinan Farm, Bale-Robe, Ethiopia
Cherinet Seboka Ambaye

College of Natural Science, Physics Department, Madda Walabu University, Bale-Robe, Ethiopia

Download PDF

Sections

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. (2020). Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 5(4), 66-74. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Chala Abebe Aredo; Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2020, 5(4), 66-74. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye. Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia. Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2020;5(4):66-74. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12,
  author = {Chala Abebe Aredo and Cherinet Seboka Ambaye},
  title = {Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {5},
  number = {4},
  pages = {66-74},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20200504.12},
  abstract = {Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R2=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R2=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia
AU  - Chala Abebe Aredo
AU  - Cherinet Seboka Ambaye
Y1  - 2020/09/07
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 66
EP  - 74
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
AB  - Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R2=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R2=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.
VL  - 5
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download