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An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States
American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling
Volume 5, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages: 70-76
Received: Jun. 26, 2020; Accepted: Jul. 16, 2020; Published: Jul. 28, 2020
Authors
Joseph Roger Arhin, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
Francis Sam, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
Kenneth Coker, School of Information and Communication Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
Ernest Owusu Ansah, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
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Abstract
COVID-19 is currently a perilous disease that has an incubation period of between 4 and 6 days. The United States Disease Control and Prevention Centers posited that in certain cases, coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means that they have been responsible for moving from animals to humans. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) disease has had an enormous impact globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has put in place various safety measures that will help alleviate the spread of the epidemic. This paper presents an SEIRD epidemic model with government policy to predict the spread of COVID-19. Through mathematical analysis, the essence of the model is investigated. The basic reproductive number of the envisaged model is computed and decides whether or not the disease is present in the population. Disease-free and symptomatic equilibria are studied for their existence and stability via the Lyapunov function. It is established from our numerical simulations that the introduction of government policy helps to alleviate the spread of the disease, where the basic reproductive number takes part in sustaining their stability. In the prediction of infected and death cases that were very similar to real-life data, it was established that the model was effective.
Keywords
COVID-19, SEIRD, Basic Reproduction Number, Disease-free Equilibrium, Routh-Herwitz Criterion, Global Stability, Lyapunov Function, LaSalle’s Invariance Principle
Joseph Roger Arhin, Francis Sam, Kenneth Coker, Ernest Owusu Ansah, An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States, American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling. Vol. 5, No. 3, 2020, pp. 70-76. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12
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