Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

Yang Pang

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

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Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

Yang Pang

Published in American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 8, Issue 2)

Received: 5 April 2023 Accepted: 24 April 2023 Published: 10 May 2023

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Abstract

Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.

Published in	American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (Volume 8, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
Page(s)	43-48
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Highway Passenger Transport, Market Share, Exponential Smoothing Method, Forecast

References

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[2]	Tongsong Pei & Yu Pei. (2021). Prediction of Highway Traffic Volume Based on Markov Chain-BP Neural Network Model. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University: Natural Science Edition (2). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2021.02.06.
[3]	Qiuming Gan. Highway Passenger Volume Prediction Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization Support Vector Machine. Highway Engineering (6). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0610.2012.06-0192-04.
[4]	Yugang Liu & Daojian Dong. (2015). Application of Grey Relational Elasticity Model to Highway Passenger Volume Prediction. Highway Engineering (1). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0610.2015.01-02530-04.
[5]	Yizhi Wang, Weizhen Ma & Ning Sun. (2019). Highway Passenger Flow Prediction Based on Grey Markov Model. Value Engineering (33). doi: 10.14018/j.cnki.cn13-1085/n.2019.33.104.
[6]	Litao Tang & Yanghui Mo. (2017). Research on Highway Passenger Volume Prediction Based on BP Neural Network and Multiple Regression. Transportation Science and Technology (5). doi: 10. 3963/j.issn.1671-7570.2017.05.036.
[7]	Sen Xu & Shuwei Cui. (2020). Highway Passenger Volume Prediction Based on Softplus Function with Dual Hidden Layer BP Neural Network. Journal of University of South China: Natural Science Edition (1). doi: 10.19431/j.cnki.1673-0062.2020.01.014.
[8]	Ya Lu. (2016). Forecast Analysis of Highway Passenger Volume Based on Multiple Regression Model. Journal of Chongqing University of Technology: Natural Science Edition (8). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8425(z).2016.08.025.
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[14]	Changjiang Wang. (2006). Study on the Selection of Smoothing Coefficient in Exponential Smoothing Method. Journal of North University of China: Natural Science Edition (6). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3193.2006.06.0558.04.
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APA Style

Yang Pang. (2023). Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 8(2), 43-48. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

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ACS Style

Yang Pang. Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2023, 8(2), 43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

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AMA Style

Yang Pang. Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2023;8(2):43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12,
  author = {Yang Pang},
  title = {Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {43-48},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  abstract = {Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method
AU  - Yang Pang
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 43
EP  - 48
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
AB  - Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Yang Pang

School of Energy Science and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, China

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Yang Pang. (2023). Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 8(2), 43-48. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

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ACS Style

Yang Pang. Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. Am. J. Traffic Transp. Eng. 2023, 8(2), 43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Yang Pang. Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method. Am J Traffic Transp Eng. 2023;8(2):43-48. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12,
  author = {Yang Pang},
  title = {Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method},
  journal = {American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {43-48},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtte.20230802.12},
  abstract = {Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method
AU  - Yang Pang
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
T2  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
SP  - 43
EP  - 48
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-8604
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20230802.12
AB  - Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download