Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal:: Science Publishing Group

Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal

Kim Kwee Ng

Department of Physics and Astronomy, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York, USA

American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 7, Issue 1, March 2019

Pages: 10-17

Received: Jun. 19, 2019

Accepted: Jul. 12, 2019

Published: Jul. 26, 2019

DOI: 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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Abstract

The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude R_N of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R₂₅ = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.

Keywords

Sunspots, Solar Flares, Solar Cycles, Precursor Method, Geomagnetic Activity, Magnetic Field, Magnetic Poles Reversal

To cite this article

Kim Kwee Ng. (2019). Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 7(1), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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