Energy is the heart of the most critical economic, environmental, and developmental issues. Ethiopia is aggressive working to produce electrical energy from hydroelectric sources. However, currently, the net energy imports and power losses also increase. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between energy growth indicators in Ethiopia by using a VAR time series model. A time series technique using annual data for the period 1971 to 2015 from the World Bank was utilized VAR. (1) One model result lagged electricity production from hydroelectric sources is significantly explained by one period lagged values of itself. Furthermore, the result indicates that electric power consumption explained in a period. The forecast error variance decomposition result indicates that most of the variations in the series were explained by their shock in the first horizon. In the short?run, electricity production had a positive significant effect on consumption in Ethiopia. On the basis of these results, it is recommended that the government and manager work together to increase stable consumption opportunities but should reduce energy import and electric power losses.
| Published in | American Journal of Modern Energy (Volume 11, Issue 6) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11 |
| Page(s) | 108-123 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Energy Growth Indicator, Vector Autoregressive, Model Diagnosis, Forecasting
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APA Style
Yayeh, E. M., Mesfin, C., Mengist, H. (2025). Modelling and Forecasting of Some Energy Growth Indicator Variables in Ethiopia Via a Multivariate VAR Model. American Journal of Modern Energy, 11(6), 108-123. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11
ACS Style
Yayeh, E. M.; Mesfin, C.; Mengist, H. Modelling and Forecasting of Some Energy Growth Indicator Variables in Ethiopia Via a Multivariate VAR Model. Am. J. Mod. Energy 2025, 11(6), 108-123. doi: 10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11,
author = {Elias Mengst Yayeh and Chalachew Mesfin and Hailemariam Mengist},
title = {Modelling and Forecasting of Some Energy Growth Indicator Variables in Ethiopia Via a Multivariate VAR Model},
journal = {American Journal of Modern Energy},
volume = {11},
number = {6},
pages = {108-123},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajme.20251106.11},
abstract = {Energy is the heart of the most critical economic, environmental, and developmental issues. Ethiopia is aggressive working to produce electrical energy from hydroelectric sources. However, currently, the net energy imports and power losses also increase. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between energy growth indicators in Ethiopia by using a VAR time series model. A time series technique using annual data for the period 1971 to 2015 from the World Bank was utilized VAR. (1) One model result lagged electricity production from hydroelectric sources is significantly explained by one period lagged values of itself. Furthermore, the result indicates that electric power consumption explained in a period. The forecast error variance decomposition result indicates that most of the variations in the series were explained by their shock in the first horizon. In the short?run, electricity production had a positive significant effect on consumption in Ethiopia. On the basis of these results, it is recommended that the government and manager work together to increase stable consumption opportunities but should reduce energy import and electric power losses.},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Modelling and Forecasting of Some Energy Growth Indicator Variables in Ethiopia Via a Multivariate VAR Model AU - Elias Mengst Yayeh AU - Chalachew Mesfin AU - Hailemariam Mengist Y1 - 2025/12/19 PY - 2025 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11 DO - 10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11 T2 - American Journal of Modern Energy JF - American Journal of Modern Energy JO - American Journal of Modern Energy SP - 108 EP - 123 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2575-3797 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajme.20251106.11 AB - Energy is the heart of the most critical economic, environmental, and developmental issues. Ethiopia is aggressive working to produce electrical energy from hydroelectric sources. However, currently, the net energy imports and power losses also increase. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between energy growth indicators in Ethiopia by using a VAR time series model. A time series technique using annual data for the period 1971 to 2015 from the World Bank was utilized VAR. (1) One model result lagged electricity production from hydroelectric sources is significantly explained by one period lagged values of itself. Furthermore, the result indicates that electric power consumption explained in a period. The forecast error variance decomposition result indicates that most of the variations in the series were explained by their shock in the first horizon. In the short?run, electricity production had a positive significant effect on consumption in Ethiopia. On the basis of these results, it is recommended that the government and manager work together to increase stable consumption opportunities but should reduce energy import and electric power losses. VL - 11 IS - 6 ER -
Department of Statistic, Gambella University, Gambella, Ethiopia
Department of Animal Science, Gambella University, Gambella, Ethiopia
Department of EdPM, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
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