Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Patrick Nwabueze Ubru; Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa; Nicholas Attamah

doi:doi:10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Patrick Nwabueze Ubru, Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa^*, Nicholas Attamah

Published in Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 14, Issue 2)

Received: 21 November 2025 Accepted: 6 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025

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Abstract

The study examined the impact of Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on agricultural productivity in Nigeria covering the period 1986Q1 to 2024Q4. The objectives of the study were to determine the impact of Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) granted to categorized farm production on agricultural output, assess the nature of the relationship between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output, trace the direction of causality between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output and ascertain the optimal ACGSF loan to crop production required to boost agricultural output in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin 2024 and were interpolated using Eview Econometric package. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration were carried out and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model was applied to extract the data set The findings showed that the variables were integrated of order zero and one and had a long run relationship. The result of the short run ARDL indicated that loans granted to Mixed Production in the third quarter had positive significant effect on agricultural output while those granted to crop production had negative but insignificant effect. It was shown by the finding that. oans granted to and fishery production had positive insignificant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL Bound test showed that the variables had a long run relationship among the variables used in the model. There was an evidence of a unidirectional causality flowing from agricultural output to loan granted to Mixed Farming Productivity (MIP) by the result of the Granger Causality. The result of the Non-Linear Threshold Quadratic model showed that the maximum loan to be granted to the crop production in order to guarantee maximum agricultural productivity was N710,266.055. The study recommended the need to give priority to loans the mixed farming production than fishery or crop production; monitor and evaluate the loans granted to farmers from the first quarter to the third quarter; diversify loans given to farmers; and grant each farmer at least a sum of N710,266.055 in order to attain a maximum agricultural productivity in Nigeria.

Published in	Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 14, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
Page(s)	179-188
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Agricultural Credit; Agricultural Output; Scheme Fund; Model; Integration

References

[1]	Abdulrafiu, T. & Dabo, A. C. (2022). Impact of Agricultural Finance on Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1983-2018). Available at Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4201333</i>
[2]	Achumu, J., Ezirim, U. I., Ezirim, C. B., & Chekwa, C. (2022). Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth: A Bayesian VAR Examination of the Nigerian Evidence. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 24(1).
[3]	Adewale, A. T., Lawal, O. A., Aberu, F., & Toriola, A. K. (2022). Effect of Credit to Farmers and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria. East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 1(3), 377-388.
[4]	Afolabi, M., Ikpefan, O. A., Osuma, G. O., & Evbuomwan, G. (2021). Impact of agricultural credit on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal: Wseas Transactions on Business and Economics, 511-523.
[5]	Asaleye, A. J., Inegbedion, H., Lawal, A. I., Adeleke, O. K., Osakede, U. A., & Ogunwole, E. B. (2023). Revamping agricultural sector and its implications on output and employment generation: Evidence from Nigeria. Open Agriculture, 8(1), 1-10.
[6]	Eno, E. J., & Eze, F. O. (2023). Relationship between Agricultural Financing and Agricultural Output in Nigeria. Global Journal of Finance and Business Review.
[7]	Gniniguè, M., Abalo, B. F. A., Paroubénim, T., and Heyou, M. R. (2022). The Impact of Agricultural Structural Transformation on Economic Growth in Africa. African Journal of Economic Review, 10(2), 1-12.
[8]	Marafa, A. A. (2021). Agricultural financing and productivity nexus in Nigeria: an Ardl analysis. NOUN Journal of Management and International Development, 6(1), 241-259.
[9]	Nwadioha, N. A., and Igoni, S. (2021). Impact of agricultural credits on the Nigerian economic growth. Journal of Research in Business and Management, 9(7), 31-39.
[10]	Ogah, O. M., Bartholomew, B. & Ezihe, J. A. C. (2023). A Vector Error Correction Model Approach to Government Agricultural Expenditure on Agricultural Growth in Nigeria Under the Period of Uninterrupted Democracy (1999–2020). In: Odularu, G. O. A. (eds) Agricultural Transformation in Africa. Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19527-3_11
[11]	Ogbodo, i., John, O. A., & Mmesoma, O. V. (2022). Does Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund Guarantees Sustainable Agricultural Output in Nigeria?. Journal of Basic and Applied Research International, 28(6), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.56557/jobari/2022/v28i67964
[12]	Okoye N. J., Okere W. & Ozulumba B. O. (2024) Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and Real Output Growth: The Nigeria's Green Sector. African Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Development \| ISSN: 2714-4402 Vol. 5, Number 2 (April-June, 2024) \| www.ijaar.org/ajsad
[13]	Oyatayo, T. T. (2021). Agricultural Financing and the Nigerian Economic Growth (PhD Dissertation, Igbinedion University, Okada Edo State).
[14]	Reuben, J., Nyam, C. M., & Rukwe, D. T. (2020). Agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund and its effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), 23(1340-2021-020), 102-111.
[15]	Samaila, B. S., & Idris, M. (2023). Effect of Agricultural Credit Guarantee SchemeFund on Real Output Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies, 3(2), 1080-1085.
[16]	Sulaimon, M. (2021). Agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) and agricultural performance in Nigeria: A threshold regression analysis. Available at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105564/1/MPRA_paper_105564.pdf

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APA Style

Ubru, P. N., Asogwa, F. O., Attamah, N. (2025). Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. Journal of World Economic Research, 14(2), 179-188. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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ACS Style

Ubru, P. N.; Asogwa, F. O.; Attamah, N. Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. J. World Econ. Res. 2025, 14(2), 179-188. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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AMA Style

Ubru PN, Asogwa FO, Attamah N. Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. J World Econ Res. 2025;14(2):179-188. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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@article{10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17,
  author = {Patrick Nwabueze Ubru and Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa and Nicholas Attamah},
  title = {Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {14},
  number = {2},
  pages = {179-188},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.20251402.17},
  abstract = {The study examined the impact of Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on agricultural productivity in Nigeria covering the period 1986Q1 to 2024Q4. The objectives of the study were to determine the impact of Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) granted to categorized farm production on agricultural output, assess the nature of the relationship between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output, trace the direction of causality between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output and ascertain the optimal ACGSF loan to crop production required to boost agricultural output in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin 2024 and were interpolated using Eview Econometric package. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration were carried out and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model was applied to extract the data set The findings showed that the variables were integrated of order zero and one and had a long run relationship. The result of the short run ARDL indicated that loans granted to Mixed Production in the third quarter had positive significant effect on agricultural output while those granted to crop production had negative but insignificant effect. It was shown by the finding that. oans granted to and fishery production had positive insignificant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL Bound test showed that the variables had a long run relationship among the variables used in the model. There was an evidence of a unidirectional causality flowing from agricultural output to loan granted to Mixed Farming Productivity (MIP) by the result of the Granger Causality. The result of the Non-Linear Threshold Quadratic model showed that the maximum loan to be granted to the crop production in order to guarantee maximum agricultural productivity was N710,266.055. The study recommended the need to give priority to loans the mixed farming production than fishery or crop production; monitor and evaluate the loans granted to farmers from the first quarter to the third quarter; diversify loans given to farmers; and grant each farmer at least a sum of N710,266.055 in order to attain a maximum agricultural productivity in Nigeria.},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria
AU  - Patrick Nwabueze Ubru
AU  - Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa
AU  - Nicholas Attamah
Y1  - 2025/12/29
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 179
EP  - 188
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
AB  - The study examined the impact of Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on agricultural productivity in Nigeria covering the period 1986Q1 to 2024Q4. The objectives of the study were to determine the impact of Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) granted to categorized farm production on agricultural output, assess the nature of the relationship between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output, trace the direction of causality between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output and ascertain the optimal ACGSF loan to crop production required to boost agricultural output in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin 2024 and were interpolated using Eview Econometric package. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration were carried out and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model was applied to extract the data set The findings showed that the variables were integrated of order zero and one and had a long run relationship. The result of the short run ARDL indicated that loans granted to Mixed Production in the third quarter had positive significant effect on agricultural output while those granted to crop production had negative but insignificant effect. It was shown by the finding that. oans granted to and fishery production had positive insignificant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL Bound test showed that the variables had a long run relationship among the variables used in the model. There was an evidence of a unidirectional causality flowing from agricultural output to loan granted to Mixed Farming Productivity (MIP) by the result of the Granger Causality. The result of the Non-Linear Threshold Quadratic model showed that the maximum loan to be granted to the crop production in order to guarantee maximum agricultural productivity was N710,266.055. The study recommended the need to give priority to loans the mixed farming production than fishery or crop production; monitor and evaluate the loans granted to farmers from the first quarter to the third quarter; diversify loans given to farmers; and grant each farmer at least a sum of N710,266.055 in order to attain a maximum agricultural productivity in Nigeria.
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Patrick Nwabueze Ubru

Department of Economics, Enugu State University of Science and Technology (ESUT), Enugu, Nigeria
Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa

Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria

Contact Email
Nicholas Attamah

Department of Economics, Enugu State University of Science and Technology (ESUT), Enugu, Nigeria

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APA Style

Ubru, P. N., Asogwa, F. O., Attamah, N. (2025). Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. Journal of World Economic Research, 14(2), 179-188. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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ACS Style

Ubru, P. N.; Asogwa, F. O.; Attamah, N. Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. J. World Econ. Res. 2025, 14(2), 179-188. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

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AMA Style

Ubru PN, Asogwa FO, Attamah N. Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. J World Econ Res. 2025;14(2):179-188. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17,
  author = {Patrick Nwabueze Ubru and Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa and Nicholas Attamah},
  title = {Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {14},
  number = {2},
  pages = {179-188},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.20251402.17},
  abstract = {The study examined the impact of Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on agricultural productivity in Nigeria covering the period 1986Q1 to 2024Q4. The objectives of the study were to determine the impact of Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) granted to categorized farm production on agricultural output, assess the nature of the relationship between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output, trace the direction of causality between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output and ascertain the optimal ACGSF loan to crop production required to boost agricultural output in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin 2024 and were interpolated using Eview Econometric package. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration were carried out and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model was applied to extract the data set The findings showed that the variables were integrated of order zero and one and had a long run relationship. The result of the short run ARDL indicated that loans granted to Mixed Production in the third quarter had positive significant effect on agricultural output while those granted to crop production had negative but insignificant effect. It was shown by the finding that. oans granted to and fishery production had positive insignificant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL Bound test showed that the variables had a long run relationship among the variables used in the model. There was an evidence of a unidirectional causality flowing from agricultural output to loan granted to Mixed Farming Productivity (MIP) by the result of the Granger Causality. The result of the Non-Linear Threshold Quadratic model showed that the maximum loan to be granted to the crop production in order to guarantee maximum agricultural productivity was N710,266.055. The study recommended the need to give priority to loans the mixed farming production than fishery or crop production; monitor and evaluate the loans granted to farmers from the first quarter to the third quarter; diversify loans given to farmers; and grant each farmer at least a sum of N710,266.055 in order to attain a maximum agricultural productivity in Nigeria.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Output in Nigeria
AU  - Patrick Nwabueze Ubru
AU  - Fredrick Onyebuchi Asogwa
AU  - Nicholas Attamah
Y1  - 2025/12/29
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 179
EP  - 188
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20251402.17
AB  - The study examined the impact of Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on agricultural productivity in Nigeria covering the period 1986Q1 to 2024Q4. The objectives of the study were to determine the impact of Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) granted to categorized farm production on agricultural output, assess the nature of the relationship between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output, trace the direction of causality between Agricultural Credit Grant Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output and ascertain the optimal ACGSF loan to crop production required to boost agricultural output in Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin 2024 and were interpolated using Eview Econometric package. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration were carried out and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model was applied to extract the data set The findings showed that the variables were integrated of order zero and one and had a long run relationship. The result of the short run ARDL indicated that loans granted to Mixed Production in the third quarter had positive significant effect on agricultural output while those granted to crop production had negative but insignificant effect. It was shown by the finding that. oans granted to and fishery production had positive insignificant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL Bound test showed that the variables had a long run relationship among the variables used in the model. There was an evidence of a unidirectional causality flowing from agricultural output to loan granted to Mixed Farming Productivity (MIP) by the result of the Granger Causality. The result of the Non-Linear Threshold Quadratic model showed that the maximum loan to be granted to the crop production in order to guarantee maximum agricultural productivity was N710,266.055. The study recommended the need to give priority to loans the mixed farming production than fishery or crop production; monitor and evaluate the loans granted to farmers from the first quarter to the third quarter; diversify loans given to farmers; and grant each farmer at least a sum of N710,266.055 in order to attain a maximum agricultural productivity in Nigeria.
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
ER  -

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