Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): 
A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis

Khomendra Bhandari; Mahendra Acharya; Suraj Belbase; Anil Ghmire; Parbin Shrestha; Sandesh Dhakal

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis

Khomendra Bhandari^*, Mahendra Acharya^*, Suraj Belbase, Anil Ghmire, Parbin Shrestha, Sandesh Dhakal

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 14, Issue 6)

Received: 19 October 2025 Accepted: 24 November 2025 Published: 20 December 2025

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Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631-a net gain of 705 lakes-across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers-including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices-that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 14, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
Page(s)	261-281
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Glacier Lakes, Nepal Himalaya, GIS and Satellite Based Images, Temperature Rainfall, Humidity

References

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APA Style

Bhandari, K., Acharya, M., Belbase, S., Ghmire, A., Shrestha, P., et al. (2025). Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sciences, 14(6), 261-281. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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ACS Style

Bhandari, K.; Acharya, M.; Belbase, S.; Ghmire, A.; Shrestha, P., et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sci. 2025, 14(6), 261-281. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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AMA Style

Bhandari K, Acharya M, Belbase S, Ghmire A, Shrestha P, et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sci. 2025;14(6):261-281. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15,
  author = {Khomendra Bhandari and Mahendra Acharya and Suraj Belbase and Anil Ghmire and Parbin Shrestha and Sandesh Dhakal},
  title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): 
A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {14},
  number = {6},
  pages = {261-281},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20251406.15},
  abstract = {This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631-a net gain of 705 lakes-across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers-including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices-that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): 
A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis
AU  - Khomendra Bhandari
AU  - Mahendra Acharya
AU  - Suraj Belbase
AU  - Anil Ghmire
AU  - Parbin Shrestha
AU  - Sandesh Dhakal
Y1  - 2025/12/20
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 261
EP  - 281
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
AB  - This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631-a net gain of 705 lakes-across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers-including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices-that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Khomendra Bhandari

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal

Contact Email
Mahendra Acharya

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal

Contact Email
Suraj Belbase

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
Anil Ghmire

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
Parbin Shrestha

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
Sandesh Dhakal

Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal

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APA Style

Bhandari, K., Acharya, M., Belbase, S., Ghmire, A., Shrestha, P., et al. (2025). Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sciences, 14(6), 261-281. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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ACS Style

Bhandari, K.; Acharya, M.; Belbase, S.; Ghmire, A.; Shrestha, P., et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sci. 2025, 14(6), 261-281. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

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AMA Style

Bhandari K, Acharya M, Belbase S, Ghmire A, Shrestha P, et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis. Earth Sci. 2025;14(6):261-281. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15,
  author = {Khomendra Bhandari and Mahendra Acharya and Suraj Belbase and Anil Ghmire and Parbin Shrestha and Sandesh Dhakal},
  title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): 
A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {14},
  number = {6},
  pages = {261-281},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20251406.15},
  abstract = {This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631-a net gain of 705 lakes-across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers-including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices-that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): 
A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis
AU  - Khomendra Bhandari
AU  - Mahendra Acharya
AU  - Suraj Belbase
AU  - Anil Ghmire
AU  - Parbin Shrestha
AU  - Sandesh Dhakal
Y1  - 2025/12/20
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 261
EP  - 281
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20251406.15
AB  - This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631-a net gain of 705 lakes-across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers-including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices-that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
ER  -

Copy | Download