Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia

Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia

Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste^*

Published in International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment (Volume 10, Issue 4)

Received: 6 September 2025 Accepted: 19 September 2025 Published: 28 October 2025

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Abstract

Climate change has become a pressing global challenge, with rural communities in Ethiopia among the most vulnerable due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined rainfall variability and trends in Western Amhara, Ethiopia, from 1992 to 2021 using daily rainfall data from eleven meteorological stations. Analytical methods included the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA), and Mann-Kendall trend tests, supported by Climate Data Tool (CDT) software. Results revealed considerable spatiotemporal rainfall variability, with annual totals ranging from 995 mm to 1783 mm and a mean of 1316 mm. The PCI analysis indicated irregular to strongly irregular rainfall distribution, particularly in Bahir Dar, Metema, and Nefas Mewucha. The lowest precipitation concentration index was found at Chagni and Debre Markos stations, with a value of 16.6. Seasonal analysis showed that the Kiremt rains contributed the largest share of annual totals, with higher variability compared to annual averages. Standardized anomalies highlighted alternating wet and dry years, signaling recurrent drought and excess rainfall events. These findings underscore the importance of rainfall variability as a determinant of food security, agricultural productivity, and water resource management. Understanding such variability is crucial for designing adaptive strategies to enhance resilience among farming communities in Ethiopia.

Published in	International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
Page(s)	105-126
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Trend, Variability, Precipitation Concentration Index, Standardized Rainfall Anomalies, Western Amhara

References

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Mengiste, B. G. (2025). Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment, 10(4), 105-126. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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Mengiste, B. G. Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. Int. J. Econ. Energy Environ. 2025, 10(4), 105-126. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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Mengiste BG. Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. Int J Econ Energy Environ. 2025;10(4):105-126. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12,
  author = {Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste},
  title = {Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia
},
  journal = {International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {105-126},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  abstract = {Climate change has become a pressing global challenge, with rural communities in Ethiopia among the most vulnerable due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined rainfall variability and trends in Western Amhara, Ethiopia, from 1992 to 2021 using daily rainfall data from eleven meteorological stations. Analytical methods included the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA), and Mann-Kendall trend tests, supported by Climate Data Tool (CDT) software. Results revealed considerable spatiotemporal rainfall variability, with annual totals ranging from 995 mm to 1783 mm and a mean of 1316 mm. The PCI analysis indicated irregular to strongly irregular rainfall distribution, particularly in Bahir Dar, Metema, and Nefas Mewucha. The lowest precipitation concentration index was found at Chagni and Debre Markos stations, with a value of 16.6. Seasonal analysis showed that the Kiremt rains contributed the largest share of annual totals, with higher variability compared to annual averages. Standardized anomalies highlighted alternating wet and dry years, signaling recurrent drought and excess rainfall events. These findings underscore the importance of rainfall variability as a determinant of food security, agricultural productivity, and water resource management. Understanding such variability is crucial for designing adaptive strategies to enhance resilience among farming communities in Ethiopia.
},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia

AU  - Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste
Y1  - 2025/10/28
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
T2  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
JF  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
JO  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
SP  - 105
EP  - 126
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5021
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
AB  - Climate change has become a pressing global challenge, with rural communities in Ethiopia among the most vulnerable due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined rainfall variability and trends in Western Amhara, Ethiopia, from 1992 to 2021 using daily rainfall data from eleven meteorological stations. Analytical methods included the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA), and Mann-Kendall trend tests, supported by Climate Data Tool (CDT) software. Results revealed considerable spatiotemporal rainfall variability, with annual totals ranging from 995 mm to 1783 mm and a mean of 1316 mm. The PCI analysis indicated irregular to strongly irregular rainfall distribution, particularly in Bahir Dar, Metema, and Nefas Mewucha. The lowest precipitation concentration index was found at Chagni and Debre Markos stations, with a value of 16.6. Seasonal analysis showed that the Kiremt rains contributed the largest share of annual totals, with higher variability compared to annual averages. Standardized anomalies highlighted alternating wet and dry years, signaling recurrent drought and excess rainfall events. These findings underscore the importance of rainfall variability as a determinant of food security, agricultural productivity, and water resource management. Understanding such variability is crucial for designing adaptive strategies to enhance resilience among farming communities in Ethiopia.

VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste

Department of Environment and Climate Change, Ethiopia Road Administration, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Mengiste, B. G. (2025). Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment, 10(4), 105-126. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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Mengiste, B. G. Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. Int. J. Econ. Energy Environ. 2025, 10(4), 105-126. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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Mengiste BG. Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia. Int J Econ Energy Environ. 2025;10(4):105-126. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12,
  author = {Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste},
  title = {Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia
},
  journal = {International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {105-126},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijeee.20251004.12},
  abstract = {Climate change has become a pressing global challenge, with rural communities in Ethiopia among the most vulnerable due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined rainfall variability and trends in Western Amhara, Ethiopia, from 1992 to 2021 using daily rainfall data from eleven meteorological stations. Analytical methods included the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA), and Mann-Kendall trend tests, supported by Climate Data Tool (CDT) software. Results revealed considerable spatiotemporal rainfall variability, with annual totals ranging from 995 mm to 1783 mm and a mean of 1316 mm. The PCI analysis indicated irregular to strongly irregular rainfall distribution, particularly in Bahir Dar, Metema, and Nefas Mewucha. The lowest precipitation concentration index was found at Chagni and Debre Markos stations, with a value of 16.6. Seasonal analysis showed that the Kiremt rains contributed the largest share of annual totals, with higher variability compared to annual averages. Standardized anomalies highlighted alternating wet and dry years, signaling recurrent drought and excess rainfall events. These findings underscore the importance of rainfall variability as a determinant of food security, agricultural productivity, and water resource management. Understanding such variability is crucial for designing adaptive strategies to enhance resilience among farming communities in Ethiopia.
},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Rainfall Trend and Variability over Western Amhara, Ethiopia

AU  - Behabtu Gobeze Mengiste
Y1  - 2025/10/28
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
T2  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
JF  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
JO  - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment
SP  - 105
EP  - 126
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5021
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251004.12
AB  - Climate change has become a pressing global challenge, with rural communities in Ethiopia among the most vulnerable due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined rainfall variability and trends in Western Amhara, Ethiopia, from 1992 to 2021 using daily rainfall data from eleven meteorological stations. Analytical methods included the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA), and Mann-Kendall trend tests, supported by Climate Data Tool (CDT) software. Results revealed considerable spatiotemporal rainfall variability, with annual totals ranging from 995 mm to 1783 mm and a mean of 1316 mm. The PCI analysis indicated irregular to strongly irregular rainfall distribution, particularly in Bahir Dar, Metema, and Nefas Mewucha. The lowest precipitation concentration index was found at Chagni and Debre Markos stations, with a value of 16.6. Seasonal analysis showed that the Kiremt rains contributed the largest share of annual totals, with higher variability compared to annual averages. Standardized anomalies highlighted alternating wet and dry years, signaling recurrent drought and excess rainfall events. These findings underscore the importance of rainfall variability as a determinant of food security, agricultural productivity, and water resource management. Understanding such variability is crucial for designing adaptive strategies to enhance resilience among farming communities in Ethiopia.

VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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