Research Article | | Peer-Reviewed

A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals

Received: 8 June 2026     Accepted: 14 July 2026     Published: 6 August 2026
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Abstract

Objective This study aimed to systematically evaluate and mitigate risks associated with infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals, with the ultimate goal of strengthening institutional capacity for infection management. Methods A hybrid risk analysis approach combining the Delphi technique and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was employed to identify, assess, and prioritize key vulnerabilities in hospital-based infectious disease control processes. Following risk prioritization, evidence-informed interventions were designed and implemented for the highest-ranking issues, and their impact was rigorously measured through pre- and post-intervention comparisons. Results Twenty-two distinct risk elements influencing infectious disease management efficacy were identified and stratified by severity and likelihood using FMEA scoring. The five most critical areas demanding urgent action were: (1) fragmented or under-resourced internal structures dedicated to infection control; (2) outdated or non-integrated health information systems lacking real-time surveillance capabilities; (3) inconsistent application of triage and initial screening protocols; (4) variable adherence to standard infection prevention practices across clinical units; and (5) inefficient interdepartmental coordination during the transfer of suspected or confirmed infectious cases. Post-intervention outcomes demonstrated marked improvements: the timeliness of mandatory infectious disease reporting rose from 84.66% to full compliance (100%); case report completeness reached 100%, up from 97.89%; and the median reporting time per case was halved—from 10 minutes to 5 minutes. Statistically significant enhancements were observed across all evaluated compliance indicators (p < 0.001). Conclusion The synergistic application of the Delphi method and FMEA facilitates proactive risk detection, dynamic monitoring, and responsive mitigation—transforming reactive practices into a robust, iterative, closed-loop governance framework that substantially elevates the quality and reliability of infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals.

Published in Science Research (Volume 14, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11
Page(s) 128-134
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Risk Assessment, PDCA Cycle Method

1.引言
传染病不仅威胁人类生命健康, 也造成巨大经济损失,严重影响社会稳定。近年来,新发突发传染病不断出现,使传染病防控面临更严峻的公共卫生挑战。在我国,综合性医院因综合救治能力强、医务人员素质高等特点,担负着大量传染病患者的首次诊疗工作,是应对重大传染病及突发公共卫生事件的主力军,作为传染病监测预警的“前沿哨点”、传染病疫情防控主战场,其传染病防控能力的强弱直接影响国家整个公共卫生体系响应效能。综合性医院虽在应对新型冠状病毒感染中积累了众多经验,提升了传染病防控能力,然而,当前部分医疗机构主体责任落实仍不到位,风险防范依然重要。为此,加快建立系统的传染病防控风险评估体系,利用德尔菲法(Delphi) 、失效模式和效应分析(FMEA) 等工具模型,对潜在风险进行主动识别、评估与干预,推动风险从事后处置向事前预防转变,持续降低院感与传染病聚集性疫情风险发生。
本研究运用德尔菲法、失效模式和效应分析(FMEA)工具模型对综合性医院在传染病防控中存在的风险因素进行主动识别、评估,针对高风险因素采用戴明循环(Plan-Do-Check-Action cycle, PDCA循环)管理工具进行持续质量改进,探讨风险评估及PDCA管理工具在综合性医院传染病诊疗防控中的作用,以期为完善综合性医院传染病防控体系、提升传染病管理水平、增强公共卫生应急能力提供科学依据及实践参考。
2.资料与方法
2.1.研究方法
以某三级综合甲等医疗机构的传染病预防控制风险为研究对象,采用Delphi法、FMEA,经过专家筛选、风险识别、分析开展风险评估,针对高风险因素进行干预,实现传染病防控工作的质量持续提升。
2.2.指标确立
采用Delphi法,通过问询专家意见,经2轮指标的筛选后,构建了包含22项风险因素的《综合医院传染病防控风险评估指标体系》。
2.3.风险识别及评估
利用FMEA工具分析风险发生的可能性(P)、严重性(S)、和准备程度(D),量化风险水平,采用5等级评分,并根据P、S、D评分值计算出风险优先指数RPN =P×S ×D,采用百分位数法对风险优先指数进行风险等级划分,将分值由低到高排序后以P10、P25、P50、P75、P90为分界点将各风险因素划分为极低风险、低风险、中低风险、中高风险、高风险、极高风险6个等级的风险组,确定优先干预项目。
2.4.风险干预
针对存在的极高风险及高风险组进行及时的风险干预,分析存在的原因,并采取针对性措施进行干预,并对干预效果进行检查,评估措施的有效性。
2.5.统计学方法
采用SPSS 27.0软件对数据进行统计分析。计量资料采用均数±标准差(x±s)进行描述,组间比较采用t检验,计数资料采用百分率(%)进行描述,组间比较采用χ2检验,均以P<0.05为差异具有统计学意义。
3.结果
3.1.风险评估结果
将纳入的22项风险因素进行评估并排序,极高风险组为:医院的传染病防控组织架构不健全,多部门协作机制不顺畅、信息系统不能有效支持传染病的管理,高分险组为不能有效落实预检分诊制度,传染性患者未能及时引导至传染性疾病门诊就诊、临床科室对传染病防控措施(防护、消毒、隔离)执行率不到位、传染病患者在多个科室转科时告知不及时,需要优先对这5项风险因素提出针对性措施,降低、规避风险的发生。见表1
3.2.风险干预措施
3.2.1.完善传染病管理体系,优化多部门协作机制
医院成立传染病管理委员会,列入医院一级医疗质量管理委员会之下,组建完善的组织架构,明确了相关部门在传染病管理中职责。
医院于2024年12月组建公共卫生处,整合了原医院感染管理科及预防保健科的职能及人员。
开展多学科联合传染病防控应急演练,检验并优化多部门间协作机制。
3.2.2.医院内信息化建设,打通信息系统间的关联
医院于2024年12月正式使用国家传染病智能监测预警前置软件,对传染病相关诊断、检验报告等信息进行实时监测及敏锐预警,公共卫生处专职人员对临床医生传染病报告审核确认后,可“一键报卡”提交至中国疾病预防控制信息系统。
针对国家传染病智能监测预警前置软件中存在的当临床医生主动隐藏右下角“强干扰式”弹窗提醒后预警机制失效的问题,积极探索替代性提醒策略,实现了在his系统进行信息拦截,如若医生不及时对传染病预警信息进行审核,则不能进行后续诊疗,如开具门诊处方或医嘱。
在电子病历系统中增加360视图模块,对住院患者以往的门诊、住院诊断及相关检验、检查结果进行呈现,便于医务人员及早对结核病、艾滋病等慢性传染病患者进行识别,及时采取相应防护措施,避免职业暴露的发生。
3.2.3.充分利用人工智能,提升预检分诊工作
患者通过网上预约平台挂号时,实行AI预问诊,提前填写相应症状,在线进行流行病学调查,并在线上预约界面明显处提示如体温超过38℃,伴有咳嗽,或咽疼痛、全身疼痛等症状应至发热门诊就诊,进行智能分诊、预约挂号。同时进行针对性培训,提升预检分诊工作人员能力,及时识别传染性患者,及时引导至传染性疾病门诊就诊。
3.2.4.提升临床科室对传染病防控措施的执行率
在手术室、消毒供应室及影像检查等医技科室使用各自专业信息系统中对传染病患者进行特殊标识,使工作人员知晓传染病患者提醒,从而及时落实相应防控措施。
在医院感染实时监测系统增加对传染病患者信息及时预警推送,便于公共卫生处医院感染管理专职人员及时知晓传染病患者的科室分布,便于指导临床科室进行针对性的消毒及个人防护等防控措施落实,降低传染病在医疗机构内传播的风险。
进行分层培训,并进行考核,提升临床科室医务人员的传染病防控意识及对防护、消毒、隔离等知识的掌握水平。
加强对临床科室有关传染病防控措施的督导检查,如使用荧光笔检查对环境的清洁消毒质量。
加强信息化关联,打破信息孤岛的情况,对传染病患者进行标识,在多个科室转科时接收科室能及时知晓患者情况,做好防控措施。
表1 综合医院传染病预防控制风险评估结果。

风险因素

风险发生的可能性(P)

风险发生造成危害的严重性(S)

风险发生准备程度(D)

风险优先指数(RPN)

风险等级

医院的传染病防控组织架构不健全,多部门协作机制不顺畅

5

5

4

100

极高风险

信息系统不能有效支持传染病的管理

5

4

4

80

极高风险

不能有效落实预检分诊制度,传染性患者未能及时引导至传染性疾病门诊就诊

4

4

4

64

高风险

临床科室对传染病防控措施(防护、消毒、隔离)执行率不到位

4

5

3

60

高风险

传染病患者在多个科室转科时告知不及时

3

3

2

18

高风险

传染病监测与疫情报告制度未有效执行

2

4

2

16

中高风险

传染病流行病学调查和处置不及时

2

4

2

16

中高风险

突发原因不明传染病会商机制不健全

2

4

2

16

中高风险

传染病预警反馈机制不健全

2

3

2

12

中高风险

当发生突发传染病疫情时,医院无能力及时启动应急预案

2

3

2

12

中高风险

医务人员对医院传染病应急预案的熟悉

2

3

2

12

中高风险

传染病监测与疫情报告不及时

2

3

2

12

中高风险

医院的传染病报告流程不合理,不方便医务人员操作

2

3

2

12

中高风险

医院未组织的传染病应急处置培训

2

3

2

12

中高风险

医院在传染病应急物资储备不足,难以应对大规模传染病

1

4

2

8

中低风险

医院无针对传染病早期预警的机制

2

3

1

6

中低风险

病原微生物实验室生物安全管理不规范

1

5

1

5

中低风险

医疗机构未单独设置传染病管理的医院二级委员会

1

4

1

4

低风险

医院制定的传染病相关制度、流程不合理

1

4

1

4

低风险

传染性疾病科的设置布局不合理,配套设施不完善

1

4

1

4

低风险

对传染病患者产生的医疗废物处置不规范

1

4

1

4

低风险

现有传染病诊疗模式不能够满足工作需要

1

3

1

3

极低风险

3.3.风险干预效果检查
3.3.1.干预前、后传染病上报情况对比
采取针对性干预措施后临床医务人员法定传染病报告及时率、完整率均上升为100%,显著缩短了传染病上报时间,详见表2
表2 干预前、后法定传染病上报相关指标比较。

指标

优化前

优化后

临床医务人员法定传染病报告及时率(%)

84.66%(6766/7992)

100%(7967/7967)

临床医务人员法定传染病报卡完整率(%)

97.89%(7823/7992)

100%(7967/7967)

传染病报告卡平均所用时间(填报耗时min/例)

10min

5min

3.3.2.干预前、后传染病防控措施执行情况
采取针对性干预措施后传染病防控措施执行率均有所提升,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.001),详见表3
表3 干预前、后传染病防控措施执行情况。

防控措施

干预前

干预后

应执行次数

实际执行次数

执行率(%)

应执行次数

实际执行次数

执行率(%)

χ2

P

挂隔离标识

2130

1185

55.63

2683

2551

95.08

1063

<0.001

单间、同种病原体同室隔离

2130

1086

50.99

2683

2577

96.05

1325

<0.001

工作人员科学防护

3240

1913

59.04

3675

3562

96.93

1498

<0.001

医疗器械用后处理规范性

2130

1107

51.97

3675

3566

97.03

1752

<0.001

手卫生依从性

4329

2120

48.97

4798

4267

88.93

1729

<0.001

环境表面荧光标记清除率

4685

2389

50.99

4989

4593

92.06

2029

<0.001

4.讨论
4.1.风险评估有助于提升综合性医院对传染病防控水平
近年来,风险评估与风险管理理念逐步在公共卫生领域推广应用,诸多学者已围绕大型活动突发公共卫生事件、传染病监测、医院感染防控等方向开展了相关探索与实践,不仅有效提升了传染病防控的 “四早” 能力,也推动了医院管理的规范化进程,降低了风险事件的发生概率。开展系统性风险管理工作,需依次通过风险识别、分析、评价等核心环节完成对风险的全面评估,并对高风险因素制定并落实针对性改进措施;本研究采用德尔菲(Delphi)法筛选并确定传染病预防控制相关风险因素,完成风险识别环节;采用FMEA方法获取风险事件发生可能性、严重性及准备程度的可靠信息,对风险事件的发生概率、潜在影响以及探测难度进行量化评估,进而依据预设标准完成风险等级划分,为后续风险应对工作提供科学依据。
基于上述方法,本研究构建了综合性医院传染病预防控制风险管理机制,梳理建立了22项传染病预防控制风险因素指标,完成了风险因素的等级划分与优先级排序,最终识别出当前医疗机构中存在的5项极高、高等级风险因素。针对识别出的极高风险与高风险因素,本研究制定并落实了优先干预策略,推动相关风险逐步降至可控范围,有效规避了风险事件的发生,助力提升了综合性医院的传染病预防控制能力。
4.2.完善的传染病管理组织架构有助于提升传染病防控水平
传染病三级管理体系作为推动医院传染病管理工作中有效落实的自上而下的管理网络,在此次PDCA管理过程中发挥了重要推力作用,医院组建了公共卫生处,弥补了原有传染病上报、防控之间的信息差,更有利于传染病防控。有研究表明在综合医院传染病管理中,构建完善的组织架构,实施多科室、多部门联合的传染病防控联动机制,能够提升医院应对及处置传染病能力,对传染病诊治、预防传染病医院内交叉感染的发生提供保障。
4.3.信息系统的升级可提升医务人员传染病报告及时性与工作效率
传染病智能监测预警前置软件对传染病相关诊断、阳性病原检测结果的实时监测及预警功能,大大提高了综合性医院对传染病的管理能力。若患者的传染病病原检测结果为阳性,则会智能识别并生成“待确诊”病例,同时提醒临床医生及时进行处理,从而提升了医务人员对传染病报告的及时性,大大降低了漏报风险。针对国家传染病智能监测预警前置软件中存在的当临床医生主动隐藏右下角“强干扰式”弹窗提醒后预警机制失效问题时,医院积极探索出了替代性“信息拦截”功能,进一步提高了医务人员对传染病报告的及时性。前置软件能够明显减少传染病报告的工作量,提高传染病报告的工作效率,有利于提升传染病的管理质量及临床医疗质量与安全。
4.4.信息系统的及时预警能有效提高传染病防控措施执行率
医院感染实时监测系统增加对传染病患者信息及时预警推送,使公共卫生处医院感染管理专职人员及时掌握传染病患者在医院内临床科室分布,减少因相关信息推送滞后导致管理漏洞。通过对预警信息的审核,对高风险传染病患者精准定位,针对不同感染源的特性,制定更加精准的隔离措施和应对方案,提升医院感染风险控制的准确性。
通过信息系统向医技科室推送传染病患者相关情况,使医技科室工作人员提前知晓患者信息,便于对传染病患者检查时段进行安排,落实环境消毒、个人科学防护等传染病防控措施,通过对传染病防控措施执行效果监测,及时发现不足,并对相关管理流程进行优化,能够进一步提升医院对传染病的应对能力。
5结论
综上所述,本研究的成果具备较强的现实指导价值:一方面,本研究运用Delphi法及FMEA方法识别出的综合性医院传染病防控的关键风险点及其等级排序,以及从风险识别到评估分级的完整管理思路,能够为各级医疗机构在资源有限的条件下开展风险管理优先决策提供清晰的方向支撑,能够有效解决医疗机构在面对多重风险时“不知从何处优先着手”的实际难题。另一方面,针对高风险因素制定的针对性干预措施,提升了医务人员传染病报告及时性与工作效率,有效提高传染病防控措施执行率,能够有效推动综合性医疗机构传染病防控工作的高质量发展与持续改进。为完善综合性医院传染病防控体系、增强综合医院公共卫生应急能力提供了实践参考。
致谢
本文为国家疾病预防控制局研究项目《基于PDCA循环的综合性医院传染病防控体系构建及应用研究》的阶段性成果之一。
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    Fan, S., Yang, Y., Wu, M., Ding, Y., Li, Y., et al. (2026). A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals. Science Research, 14(4), 128-134. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11

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    ACS Style

    Fan, S.; Yang, Y.; Wu, M.; Ding, Y.; Li, Y., et al. A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals. Sci. Res. 2026, 14(4), 128-134. doi: 10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11

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    AMA Style

    Fan S, Yang Y, Wu M, Ding Y, Li Y, et al. A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals. Sci Res. 2026;14(4):128-134. doi: 10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11,
      author = {Shushan Fan and Yujie Yang and Min Wu and Yan Ding and Yanhui Li and Jing Ma and Chunyan Yang and Xiaona Gao},
      title = {A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals},
      journal = {Science Research},
      volume = {14},
      number = {4},
      pages = {128-134},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sr.20261404.11},
      abstract = {Objective This study aimed to systematically evaluate and mitigate risks associated with infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals, with the ultimate goal of strengthening institutional capacity for infection management. Methods A hybrid risk analysis approach combining the Delphi technique and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was employed to identify, assess, and prioritize key vulnerabilities in hospital-based infectious disease control processes. Following risk prioritization, evidence-informed interventions were designed and implemented for the highest-ranking issues, and their impact was rigorously measured through pre- and post-intervention comparisons. Results Twenty-two distinct risk elements influencing infectious disease management efficacy were identified and stratified by severity and likelihood using FMEA scoring. The five most critical areas demanding urgent action were: (1) fragmented or under-resourced internal structures dedicated to infection control; (2) outdated or non-integrated health information systems lacking real-time surveillance capabilities; (3) inconsistent application of triage and initial screening protocols; (4) variable adherence to standard infection prevention practices across clinical units; and (5) inefficient interdepartmental coordination during the transfer of suspected or confirmed infectious cases. Post-intervention outcomes demonstrated marked improvements: the timeliness of mandatory infectious disease reporting rose from 84.66% to full compliance (100%); case report completeness reached 100%, up from 97.89%; and the median reporting time per case was halved—from 10 minutes to 5 minutes. Statistically significant enhancements were observed across all evaluated compliance indicators (p < 0.001). Conclusion The synergistic application of the Delphi method and FMEA facilitates proactive risk detection, dynamic monitoring, and responsive mitigation—transforming reactive practices into a robust, iterative, closed-loop governance framework that substantially elevates the quality and reliability of infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals.},
     year = {2026}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - A Practical Study on Risk Assessment for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Comprehensive Hospitals
    AU  - Shushan Fan
    AU  - Yujie Yang
    AU  - Min Wu
    AU  - Yan Ding
    AU  - Yanhui Li
    AU  - Jing Ma
    AU  - Chunyan Yang
    AU  - Xiaona Gao
    Y1  - 2026/08/06
    PY  - 2026
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11
    T2  - Science Research
    JF  - Science Research
    JO  - Science Research
    SP  - 128
    EP  - 134
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2329-0927
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sr.20261404.11
    AB  - Objective This study aimed to systematically evaluate and mitigate risks associated with infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals, with the ultimate goal of strengthening institutional capacity for infection management. Methods A hybrid risk analysis approach combining the Delphi technique and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was employed to identify, assess, and prioritize key vulnerabilities in hospital-based infectious disease control processes. Following risk prioritization, evidence-informed interventions were designed and implemented for the highest-ranking issues, and their impact was rigorously measured through pre- and post-intervention comparisons. Results Twenty-two distinct risk elements influencing infectious disease management efficacy were identified and stratified by severity and likelihood using FMEA scoring. The five most critical areas demanding urgent action were: (1) fragmented or under-resourced internal structures dedicated to infection control; (2) outdated or non-integrated health information systems lacking real-time surveillance capabilities; (3) inconsistent application of triage and initial screening protocols; (4) variable adherence to standard infection prevention practices across clinical units; and (5) inefficient interdepartmental coordination during the transfer of suspected or confirmed infectious cases. Post-intervention outcomes demonstrated marked improvements: the timeliness of mandatory infectious disease reporting rose from 84.66% to full compliance (100%); case report completeness reached 100%, up from 97.89%; and the median reporting time per case was halved—from 10 minutes to 5 minutes. Statistically significant enhancements were observed across all evaluated compliance indicators (p < 0.001). Conclusion The synergistic application of the Delphi method and FMEA facilitates proactive risk detection, dynamic monitoring, and responsive mitigation—transforming reactive practices into a robust, iterative, closed-loop governance framework that substantially elevates the quality and reliability of infectious disease prevention and control in general hospitals.
    VL  - 14
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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  • 1.引言
  • 2.资料与方法
  • 3.结果
  • 4.讨论
  • 5结论
  • 致谢
  • References
  • Cite This Article
  • Author Information
  • Table 1

    表1 综合医院传染病预防控制风险评估结果。

  • Table 2

    表2 干预前、后法定传染病上报相关指标比较。

  • Table 3

    表3 干预前、后传染病防控措施执行情况。