Research Article
Production Trend Stratification and Temporal Validation of Gas Well Forecasts from Daily Reports
Zijie Wang,
Haidong Shi*,
Pengyu Chen,
Degang Feng,
Luming Cha,
Siqi Wang
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 6, December 2026
Pages:
141-151
Received:
8 October 2026
Accepted:
2 November 2026
Published:
10 November 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.ijees.20261106.11
Downloads:
Views:
Abstract: We tested whether historical production trends justify gas well forecast-model selection using 620,232 daily records from 178 pseudonymized wells. Fixed forecasts at eight December origins (2016-2023) were evaluated over 6, 12, and 24 months, retaining 678, 671, and 659 well–origin cases from 139, 138, and 135 wells. Comparators comprised level, damped-trend, and empirical decline functions, a fixed trend rule, and past-only temporal selection. The last-value baseline had the lowest median normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) at 6 months (6.15%); Holt's damped trend had the lowest at 12 and 24 months (8.64% and 11.89%), versus 10.14% and 12.49% for the trend rule. At 12 months, temporal selection reduced well-weighted mean NMAE by 0.61 percentage points relative to the rule (well-cluster bootstrap 95% interval: -1.14 to -0.09), but the interval crossed zero when origin years were also resampled. Temporal selection still exceeded Holt's error by 1.23 percentage points. Consistently correcting hyperbolic forecast indexing in inner validation and outer prediction preserved the main conclusions. Historical decline did not uniquely identify the most reliable function, and added selection steps did not consistently improve on strong simple baselines. These findings apply to adequately observed existing wells at year-end origins and require prospective and external-field validation.
Abstract: We tested whether historical production trends justify gas well forecast-model selection using 620,232 daily records from 178 pseudonymized wells. Fixed forecasts at eight December origins (2016-2023) were evaluated over 6, 12, and 24 months, retaining 678, 671, and 659 well–origin cases from 139, 138, and 135 wells. Comparators comprised level, da...
Show More
